Flat Racing - Wednesday, 16th of November

[chris34]

1.50 Lingfield Not the most inspiring bunch but a couple are worth noting for the winter. Love Nest has proved costly to follow but fairly consistent, did manage to win off a 2lb lower mark 3 starts ago but was all out to do so, involved in a messy race next time out but looked held anyhow and was well below best form last time out in a classified event and needs to find more again now back in handicap. Quaraqum isnt the most consistent and hasnt been at best last 2 starts but does have a chance on ratings having gone close off a 2lb higher mark in the summer but fact he is still a maiden has to be a major concern. Querido looks very well handicapped having plummetted in the weights now 10lb below last winning mark after rattling off a hatrick at wolves, this trip probably sharp enough and not at best last time out and not enought to suggest winning is around the corner. Lightning Spirit won last time out and proved his well being which counts for a lot in this field, winning a class 7 event over this trip at Kempton up 4lb which looks dubious given how the 2nd ran next time out and also the 4th since disappointed, has found this sort of mark beyond him before and draw could have been kinder and I feel there is value elsewhere. Gallantry looks massively overpriced in my opinion at 15/2. Rejoined old yard who quit over poor low grade racing ironically but thats a whole nother discussion. This yard have done well with Gallantry over the years and caught the eye on first run for this yard last time out when a strong finishing 3rd in a very messy race, handicapper taking a real chance dropping him another 2lb now putting him 19lb below his last winning mark, really good record on the AW circuit main concern is the lack of an out and out front runner but would be no surprise to see one of the outsiders try and push on and give the finishers a chance. The other that is worth a saver bet is Gee Major who drops back to a mile for the first time since winning 4 starts ago, not been at best over longer trips and this should suit better. Showed a little more last time out to suggest he remains in form and now only a 1lb higher than that winning mark with cheekpieces also on for the first time from a good draw and has sound claims. 2pt win Gallantry 15/2 vc 1pt win Gee Major 5/1 vc 2.50 Lingfield Everymanforhimself bounced back to his best last time out at Southwell and looks a good idea to get him turned out under a penalty as handicapper gonna put him up more than 6lb thats for sure, infact he is set to go up 10lb for that win my concern is he is yet to prove anywhere near as good on polytrack and looks well worth taking on. George Guru is the least exposed runner of the field but his winning form has come over a mile and looked to need all of that round here on penultimate start, only narrowly failed next time out off a 6lb higher mark handicapper added another 2lb on for that effort and reverts back to 7f today looks sharp enough. I am surprised to see Podgies Boy such a big price, comes from a yard still banging in the winners and dont have many runners at Lingfield in recent seasons but both this year and last year have resulted in a profit to level stakes and also Tylicki is an interesting booking statistically who has ridden as often for this yard as in previous season but again boasts a good LSP for this season and has a 19% strike rate at this course. For the horse itself who looks extremely well treated if he is fit enough to do himself justice which I would suspect from the Fahey yard. He racked off a hatrick this time last year the latest came off a 3lb lower mark but the 2nd then went on to win next 3 starts last of those coming off 76 (8lb higher than when SHD behind Podgie) and has then helf his own in listed company. Also worth noting the 3rd went on to win 3 races last of those coming off a 6lb higher mark. The other that has to be considered is Amitola who comes from another yard in hot form. Makes AW debut tonight but did really well last time out in a competitive 20 runner newmarket handicap when racing along away from the action to finish a very solid 3rd, handicapper had his say with 2lb but he is still 3lb below last winning mark and looks well treated based on that win and also a 3rd in a listed event, worth noting the booking of Spencer who rode him to that win and 3rd in listed event not been on since but returns today and looks a good booking which have some solid stats behind them aswell, 27% strike rate with a LSP of +29.63!! 2pt win Amitola 10/3 PP 1pt win Podgies Boy 8/1 PP

[chris34]

Re: Flat Racing Wed 16th Nov 4.40 Kempton A very competitive 5f sprint on the polytrack full of runners that need a strong pace to attack and often need a race to fall apart, Estonia won last time out in a race run to suit at Lingfield never been so good away from there and will need a career best today in a better race. Absa Lutte another one that found a race run to suit last time out who does have a better record around here but really needs things to fall apart and makes little appeal as a betting proposition these days having never won back to back handicaps. Dancing Freddy has been running consistently and would be of major interest returned to Southwell having shown good level of form last time out when did best of those drawn law by a long way, form not got such a good look about it on the polytrack and perhaps there will be another day. Crew Cut has run to a consistent level on all starts since winning a maiden including on polytrack just gotta wonder whether the handicapper has him just about where he wants him. For me Nialy Noo looks overpriced at the bottom of the weights with apprentice taking off another 5lb making him carry a featherweight over this sprint trip from a good draw in stall 3 for a prominent runner. Showed little in a 7f maiden on polytrack and a 7f conditions event on grass, but got off the mark in style dropped to 5f at Southwell last time out a mark of 65 doesnt look overly harsh and clearly the least exposed runner in this field and certainly a lot more straightforward than most of these in the field! 1pt e/w Nially Noo 10/1 lads 5.10 Kempton A lovely class 7 handicap and certainly not one to spend too much time on. Gutted I missed Yungaburra last time out having put him up the time before, he had looked as though he may be about to win having got closer on recent runs but wasnt convinced he needed a drop back to 5f but he absolutely relished it, effectively racing off just a 3lb higher mark and drops back into class 7 here and this is a lot weaker race than last time out and only has to repeat that effort again today to see him win this having shown very smart juvenile form he is very well treated and if in the same mood will take all the beating but he isnt racing in a class 7 for no reason simply because he isnt consistent. Of the others I only see one other worth mentioning and that is Lucky Royale who has joined a very capable yard, showed very little on 2 starts last year but showed a little more on reappearance and 1st time out for this yard and certainly entitled to come on for that after a year off the track, yard in reasonable form and a mark of 47 looks a very workable mark in a weak event. 2pt win Yungaburra 10/3 bet365 1pt win Lucky Royale 10/1 lads 7.10 Kempton Interesting conditions event, with a few horses that love the surface but are hard to find opportunities for off their current ratings. Kakatosi is the best on these terms using official figures has atleast 2lb in hand but not sure he warrants his mark on what he has shown recently, racked up 4 wins last year last one coming over CD off a mark of 94 and then placed in some weak races for the grade he was running in and looks flattered by his mark. Primaeval has been in great form recently winning comfortably off a mark of 91 around here over a mile, now rated 99 on this surface and ran ok off a mark of 98 in the london mile final probably needs to find more on that evidence but does hold an impressive track record with 3 wins from 6 but whether he is as good over 7f is questionable. The one that interests me the most is Citrus Star who was impressive over this trip on his AW debut last month at Lingfield, ultimately the race was run to suit but so does this one look likely too aswell with plenty of pace about for a small event. Durcan keeps the ride and seems to get on well with this horse and is unexposed on this surface and almost certainly open to more improvement on it could well take some beating! 5pt win Citrus Star 3/1 lads