Flat Racing - Wednesday, 9th of November

[Dtrains]

Hi all, After taking the past 3 months of betting due to work commitments and not being able to commit full time to it ive decided to get back to what i enjoy most, the AW season lol!!! but seriously i enjoy the AW season fewer horses and track form all important here's to a good un' 2.00 southwell Intomist caught my eye lto at brighton when missing the break quite badly then staying on well and making a challenge over the far side away from the first 4 home and finishing 5th under a hands ride, that was a strong race for brighton (godolphin doubly represented) and this is a step down in grade, obviously he has concentration issues but hopefully the aplication of blinkers can bring about some improvement. 0.4 pt win INTOMIST 5/1 bet365 3.00 southwell This is feverishly competitive and a typical southwell heat with plenty of them lining up with course form, Eastern Hills and Powerful Presence likely to be popular again after last weeks duel. But the one i am keen to be with is Piceno who won here in august when making all and looked a horse to follow after that, in his subsequent 3 starts he's been messed about went off like a bullet at thirsk then held up at catterick which actually a race he should of won imo, i'm hoping he graham gibbons makes plenty of use of stall 1 and sets the right fractions, i often like to play e.w on front runners around southwell so thats the suggested play for this one. 0.3pt E/W PICENO 8/1 bet365 4.00 southwell IL BASTISTA to put it quite simply i'm convinced he's got a stone in hand over the handicapper here won eased down after being nudged and nurdled all the way round last time, not sure about the drop to 6f but think he could just get away with it because he is so well handicapped. 1pt WIN IL BASTISTA 9/2 bet365

[chris34]

Re: FLAT (AW) racing weds 9th nov 3.00 Southwell Very reasonable handicap for the course with plenty of course specialists. Fablouslyspirited showed improvement to win a maiden at Kempton over a mile but that race really isnt working out at all and mark looks harsh based on that, was pretty much a no show on handicap bow back on turf and stepped up in trip. Drop back in trip and new surface will need to make a big difference if he is to win this off current mark. Piceno has won over CD on only start here, 5lb higher since last win and not shown much on turf although better effort last time out, main concern here is drawn in stall 1 and will need a good start from that draw. Eastern Hills cant easily be ignored in his current form he just beat Powerful Presence by a head last time out, there is a 4lb turn around in the weights for that, also Eastern Hills isnt so well drawn this time round for his style of racing and claiming jockey also take the ride but does take 7lb off. All Right Now has something to prove at present having shown little on turf, but does have a good record on this surface having won once and finishing runner up the other 2 times, but is still 6lb higher than last win and needs to bounce back but isnt badly drawn in stall 7 and useful Tylicki takes the ride and is overpriced at 20/1 and well worth an e/w bet. Dr Red Eye ran away with race last time out, form of that race working out reasonable well for the grade but a 9lb rise looks a big ask, also yard still fairly quiet at the moment. Powerful Presence gave Eastern Hills a good race last time out, and gets a 4lb turn around in the weights, still unexposed and improving on this surface with 5 solid runs around here. Didnt get as good of route through as Eastern Hills got that day and wasnt ideally drawn so should turn the tables today despite the draw being unkind again clearly has more to give on this surface for this yard that know the time of day with its runners!! 2pt win Powerful Presence 9/2 lads 1pt e/w All Right Now 20/1 bet365 4.00 Southwell Equuleus Pictor has a good record in the mud and that usually translates well round here and Pictor has proved that in the past with a CD win off a 5lb lower mark, won last time out off a 2lb lower turf mark last time out, main concern is he often runs a good race but doesnt win very often these days and not always convinced he is as good over 6f as he is 5f. Sarahs Art is a notebook horse for me having finished well on last 2 starts and doesnt look that badly handicapped on her best form. But run style not usually suited to this track and only had 1 run here 6yrs ago and didnt run great but cant really judge her on that but still will need to be at very best on this surface. Il Battista won over CD last time out, potentially still has more to offer on the surface off a mark like this having finished 2nd off marks in the 80s, probably not the strongest races he did that in and therefore probably not worth taking on face value, did win ok last time out but 4lb rise looks enough on what he showed and this looks a stronger race and will need to step up on that effort to win this often racing in snatches and very lazily and doesnt look one to be getting involved in too heavy! For me Punching is worth a speculative bet here on a surface he relishes, he has had a very quiet season but returned to form last time out when best of a small group that raced away from the centre at Yarmouth in testing conditions. Goes extremely well around here with 7 wins from 23 runs, 6 from 16 over CD and he is well handicapped on his best form having won off 72 just rated 68 now and although draw hasnt been kind you just cant rule out in a wide open affair. 1pt win Punching 11/2 VC