FleetFanatic Posted November 3, 2011 Share Posted November 3, 2011 Well, well, well. Never thought I'd be typing this. Thanks to a little run in with a couple of forum members :lol , I decided to play around with some over 2.5 goals stats. The exact methods will remain secret, at the very least until I've run this for a few months, but believe it or not, it's actually quite a basic method. I've only back tested the past 3 months so far, and be warned, most of the selections seem to be obscure Danish / Norwegian matches, with the odd English, Irish & Latvian match. :unsure But hey look at the figures: AUG 41 QUALIFIERS 30 OVERS /11 UNDERS 73.17% S/R ON +2.5 SEPT 49 QUALIFIERS 41 OVERS / 8 UNDERS 83.67% S/R ON +2.5 OCT 44 QUALIFIERS 36 OVERS / 8 UNDERS 81.82% S/R ON +2.5 I've not even begun to try & find past odds on these, but I've already looked towards the first selections & already seen odds of 1.60, etc - so if this sort of strike rate were to be the norm, then we should do ok at level stakes, although I shall to play some clever staking plan privately, but here results will be record to 10pts level stakes. There can be selections every day, although most selections seem to be at weekends, for obvious reasons (there were 14 selections on 22nd Oct, for example - only one didn't go over 2.5 :cigar) I shall assist when posting selections by also stating what league (and even country) the match is from. So finally, thanks Grex & UsManyDead, as I wouldn't have bothered otherwise. :ok First selections are not until saturday, so will post them as soon as I have got odds for all of them. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HanRicky Posted November 3, 2011 Share Posted November 3, 2011 Re: Fleet's Over 2.5 Goals Thread. it looks promissing.. Good luck. :ok Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UsManyDead Posted November 3, 2011 Share Posted November 3, 2011 Re: Fleet's Over 2.5 Goals Thread. Good job in opening this. Well as it seems you have a good S/R, but taking in consideration Denmark and Norway that would be normal since in those leagues there are a lot of goals scored (not so many in the First Leagues). Anyway you need a good system in order to try and avoid those bad Under's that will probably happen. That odd (1.60) is a medium odd you'll find in these leagues. They'll rarely go over 1.80, that's why I left these leagues aside. You need a good S/R a those odds - constantly. So you've change your mind on the fact there is no formula to calculate the OVER/UNDER?:ok Good luck. Looking forward to see how this go :ok Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jtw1 Posted November 3, 2011 Share Posted November 3, 2011 Re: Fleet's Over 2.5 Goals Thread. Good luck with this Fleet :hope Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
staffy Posted November 3, 2011 Share Posted November 3, 2011 Re: Fleet's Over 2.5 Goals Thread. Good luck. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FleetFanatic Posted November 3, 2011 Author Share Posted November 3, 2011 Re: Fleet's Over 2.5 Goals Thread. No there's still no formula, if you knew how I came to the selections, you'd be amazed how simple I've found this. :lol Anyway, here's hoping that the suggested performance from the past 3 months continues. (Kick off time / Match (Country) / Bet365 odds unless different bookmaker named) Sat 5th Nov: 15.00 Lisburn Distillery vs Donegal Celtic (Northern Ireland) 1.60 15.00 Droylsden vs Stalybridge Celtic (England) 1.53 12.00 Olimps Riga vs Jelgava (Latvia) 1.17 NO BET 12.00 Maag Tammeka vs Ajax Lasnamae (Estonia) NO BET 10pts win singles on over 2.5 goals. PLEASE NOTE: This post will be edited prior to first kick-off, when the missing odds are available. Yield, etc will be measured by 10pts level stakes, please note I will also be running a 'ratchet bank', whereby 5% of the daily bank will be placed on each selection too, from a starting bank of 100pts.) Total Selections: 2 Total over 2.5: tba S/R: tba Level stakes: 20pts Returns: tba Profit: tba Yield: tba Ratchet Bank Today: 100pts Today's stakes: 2 x 5pts Returns: tba New Bank: tba Looking ahead, it looks like we'll have to wait until a week after these for the next couple, but I'll check daily in case I've made a mistake. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mister magoo Posted November 4, 2011 Share Posted November 4, 2011 Re: Fleet's Over 2.5 Goals Thread. Im disappointed there's no matches in Calathumpia or Timbuktu...:loon Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FleetFanatic Posted November 4, 2011 Author Share Posted November 4, 2011 Re: Fleet's Over 2.5 Goals Thread. I'm disappointed at the 1.17 odds in Latvia. Maybe skip that one. And I don't think we'll even get odds in Estonia, the aways side's record is 35 matches, 4 draws, 31 losses, scored 11, conceded 183. :loon So sticking to over odds of over 1.50, at least we've got 2 selections. Slow and steady. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grex Posted November 4, 2011 Share Posted November 4, 2011 Re: Fleet's Over 2.5 Goals Thread. .... And I don't think we'll even get odds in Estonia' date=' the aways side's record is 35 matches, 4 draws, 31 losses, scored 11, conceded 183. :loon....[/quote'] ....average 5.54 goals per match.... you would be lucky to get evens on over 6.5 :eek. Must be entertaining to watch though. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FleetFanatic Posted November 4, 2011 Author Share Posted November 4, 2011 Re: Fleet's Over 2.5 Goals Thread. ....average 5.54 goals per match.... you would be lucky to get evens on over 6.5 :eek. Must be entertaining to watch though.More that they must be one of the shittiest sides in European football. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FleetFanatic Posted November 5, 2011 Author Share Posted November 5, 2011 Re: Fleet's Over 2.5 Goals Thread. ....average 5.54 goals per match.... you would be lucky to get evens on over 6.5 :eek. Must be entertaining to watch though. Latvia match finished 1-3, that Estonia match finished 9-0. Should have asked for over 6.5... :lol Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FleetFanatic Posted November 5, 2011 Author Share Posted November 5, 2011 Re: Fleet's Over 2.5 Goals Thread. (Kick off time / Match (Country) / Bet365 odds unless different bookmaker named) Sat 5th Nov: 15.00 Lisburn Distillery vs Donegal Celtic (Northern Ireland) 1.60 0-2 :( 15.00 Droylsden vs Stalybridge Celtic (England) 1.53 3-3 :clap 15.3pts returned 12.00 Olimps Riga vs Jelgava (Latvia) 1.17 NO BET 12.00 Maag Tammeka vs Ajax Lasnamae (Estonia) NO BET 10pts win singles on over 2.5 goals.3/4 overall, but in the ones that counted, a mixed start then. Total Selections: 2 Total over 2.5: 1 S/R: 50% Level stakes: 20pts Returns: 15.3pts Profit: -4.7pts Yield: -23.5% Ratchet Bank Today: 100pts Today's stakes: 2 x 5pts Returns: 7.65pts New Bank: 97.65pts Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FleetFanatic Posted November 7, 2011 Author Share Posted November 7, 2011 Re: Fleet's Over 2.5 Goals Thread. Tbh I'm kinda tempted to scrap this idea already, and go for a different approach. I'm suspecting the high strike rate is made up of one sided mismatches as per Estonia. Something along the format of my trebles / canadians, but using only the 'elite' top divisions of England/Spain/France/Germany/Italy... ...or maybe using the same 5 English leagues as per my other thread. Or maybe even both. I've played around with my ratings software, taking the current form part (including my alternative scoring based on winning margins), and adding the 2 numerical values together, ignoring if + or -. Then ignoring all those where both numerical values were negative, hopefully ruling out the matches between 2 sides that are conceding but not scoring... here's how the ratings would look on 18-21 Nov with these methods: (Screenshot - top 3 would be a treble, bold matches would make up a canadian of 2 from each division, ignoring the short price of Barcelona too.) Thoughts? Edit: Or maybe even singles on those rated 40+, for example. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FleetFanatic Posted November 8, 2011 Author Share Posted November 8, 2011 Re: Fleet's Over 2.5 Goals Thread. OK... decided on 3 bet sections: 1) Over 2.5 bet of the day: simple the match that rates strongest each day, providing there is one rated 30 or higher... can include Scottish football & non-league matches as far down as Ryman Prem / Evo Stick Northern/Southern Prem, as well as our normal English & European Elite territories (10pts single each day) 2) All matches that rate 40+ for over 2.5 (10pts singles each selection) 3) 1 x Canadian of doubles, featuring 2 matches from the 5 'European Elite' leagues - in the event not all leagues are available, I will use a combination of non-league & Scottish football to make up the numbers. These will be 1pt unit stakes (26pts total stake.) So the first 'over 2.5 bet of the day' is: Oxford United vs Southend (rating of 34) 4/5 bet365 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grex Posted November 8, 2011 Share Posted November 8, 2011 Re: Fleet's Over 2.5 Goals Thread. So the first 'over 2.5 bet of the day' is: Oxford United vs Southend (rating of 34) 4/5 bet365 This is a Johnstone's Paint Trophy fixture..... you're a brave man to cover cup competitions.... never very predictable :hope Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FleetFanatic Posted November 8, 2011 Author Share Posted November 8, 2011 Re: Fleet's Over 2.5 Goals Thread. This is a Johnstone's Paint Trophy fixture..... you're a brave man to cover cup competitions.... never very predictable :hope I'd rather be betting on there being 3 goals or more rather than one team. :lol Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FleetFanatic Posted November 8, 2011 Author Share Posted November 8, 2011 Re: Fleet's Over 2.5 Goals Thread. Something I've noted tonight: In really simply form: (Home Goals For + Home Goals Against + Away Goals For + Away Goals Against) / Total League Games Played By Both Sides. Gives: Arlesey Town Oxford City 66/27 = 2.44 Cray Wanderers Canvey Island 77/28 = 2.75 Lowestoft Town Horsham 85/27 = 3.15 Annan Athletic Peterhead 60/20 =3.00 Clyde Alloa 59/20 = 2.95 Elgin Montrose 64/20 = 3.2 Droylsden Worcester 98/30 = 3.27 Maidenhead Utd Dover 84/31 = 2.71 Now look at the league matches that are already over 2.5 tonight... 2 out of 4 so far of those working out at over 3 goals per match average, with time for the other 2 still. This could be a simple way to calculate selections I'm thinking... as it takes forever to keep my excel file up to date for non-league matches... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grex Posted November 8, 2011 Share Posted November 8, 2011 Re: Fleet's Over 2.5 Goals Thread. So the first 'over 2.5 bet of the day' is: Oxford United vs Southend (rating of 34) 4/5 bet365 I think you should have gone for over 2.5 red cards ;) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FleetFanatic Posted November 9, 2011 Author Share Posted November 9, 2011 Re: Fleet's Over 2.5 Goals Thread. Hate red cards in a game when I'm chasing goals, as teams get more defensive a man down. :spank Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FleetFanatic Posted November 16, 2011 Author Share Posted November 16, 2011 Re: Fleet's Over 2.5 Goals Thread. TBH I've not had the time to keep on top of this, so I'm going simply stick to the the format of singles on 'over 40s' and a canadian, using only the 'elite' top divisions of England/Spain/France/Germany/Italy... That way it will be once a week most of the time: Singles: must be above 1/2. Valancia vs Real Madrid 4/7 Bayern Munich vs Dortmund 8/13 Man City vs Newcastle 4/7 10pts singles on over 2.5 goals Canadian of Doubles: (1 home / 1 away from each division whenever possible) Each Pair (A/B/C/D/E) permed into 4/6/8/10 folds. A: Valencia v Real Madrid 4/7 Osasuna v Rayo Vallecano 23/20 B: Bayern Munich v Borussia Dortmund 8/13 Schalke 04 v Nuremberg 8/11 C: Man City v Newcastle 4/7 Chelsea v Liverpool 9/10 D: Paris SG v Nancy 4/5 Montpellier v Marseille 23/20 E: Fiorentina v AC Milan 1/1 Napoli v Lazio 6/5 26 bets @ 0.5pts = 13pts staked. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
davidph Posted November 18, 2011 Share Posted November 18, 2011 Re: Fleet's Over 2.5 Goals Thread. This looks great, but and I'm sure I'm being thick, how do you do your canadian online? You said that you "just place each 4/6/8/10 fold separately online normally". I can't work out how to perm the doubles - eg 4 folds of 5 sets of doubles, rather than say 4 folds from 10, which would be 210 bets alone! :wall Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FleetFanatic Posted November 18, 2011 Author Share Posted November 18, 2011 Re: Fleet's Over 2.5 Goals Thread. It clearly says perm A B C D E, where each letter is two selections. In other words, you perm each pair of selections into 4/6/8/10 folds. You're trying to perm every combination as though the 10 matches were all individual, not the same. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FleetFanatic Posted November 19, 2011 Author Share Posted November 19, 2011 Re: Fleet's Over 2.5 Goals Thread. Singles: must be above 1/2. Valancia vs Real Madrid 4/7 2-3 :clap +5.71 Bayern Munich vs Dortmund 8/13 0-1 :$ -10 Man City vs Newcastle 4/7 3-1 :clap +5.71 10pts singles on over 2.5 goals Canadian of Doubles: (1 home / 1 away from each division whenever possible) Each Pair (A/B/C/D/E) permed into 4/6/8/10 folds. A: Valencia v Real Madrid 4/7 2-3 :clap Osasuna v Rayo Vallecano 23/20 0-0 :$ B: Bayern Munich v Borussia Dortmund 8/13 0-1 :$ Schalke 04 v Nuremberg 8/11 4-0 :clap C: Man City v Newcastle 4/7 3-1 :clap Chelsea v Liverpool 9/10 1-2 :clap D: Paris SG v Nancy 4/5 Montpellier v Marseille 23/20 1-0 :$ E: Fiorentina v AC Milan 1/1 0-0 :$ Napoli v Lazio 6/5 0-0 :$ 26 bets @ 0.5pts = 13pts staked.I'll update this post over the weekend as results happen... Small profit on the singles, that was all ;/ Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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