FLAT Racing - November 3rd

[georgeCOSTANZA]

Sport	Horse Racing
Event	Southwell 2:10
Selection	Fantasy Fry (Each-way)
Strength	2/10
Date	03/11/2011
Bookmaker/Price	Paddy Power @ 26.00
Reasoning	Struggled for Tom Dascombe but raced differently than when a dual winner earlier in the year. Dascombe had sent him out in four starts with no luck beating just three rivals out of thirty-six runners. 4th, 10th, 11th, and 8th. But, all races was at 5f, 5f, 6f, and 5f. His last win was at 7f, he is half brother to five 7f winners, his dam was a 7f winner. He is also a dual winner at this course and course experience at the track is very handy. The best run for Dascombe was his only run with jockey Richard Kingscote who is booked today. They finished 10th of 11 by 6 lengths. 4th of 5 by 9 1/2 lengths is the second best run for distance beaten. He's been off for 128 days, Dascombe can be trusted he has him ready.

[chris34]

Re: FLAT Racing - November 3rd 2.10 Southwell Good looking course handicap with plenty of course form available. Bianca De Medici is worth respect given connections but didnt show enough on one run on this surface and didnt really show much at yarmouth last time and run style not easiest around here. Eastern Hills won last time out but will need a career best this time round in a stronger looking race. For me Powerful Presence could be extremely hard to beat if overcoming the unkind draw which he has done twice over CD, had 4 runs on this surface since joining this yard and is another that they have improved, with 2 wins and 2 2nd places. Had a quiet summer but a return to form last time out in a competitive race at Catterick and although now 19lb higher than last win over CD he won so well, and has won twice more on turf after that off a just a 4lb lower mark so could still be well handicapped on this surface. 5pt win Powerful Presence 10/3 lads 3.40 Southwell This is an awful race with nearly all of the runners being maidens and several of them running out of the handicap at the bottom. Oxford Gold has only had 4 starts to date in Ireland but has joined a very shrewd yard and was engaged to run sometime in past week or so and was well backed in the market before being pulled out, this is extremely weak and wouldnt take much winning and if they have sweetened him up he should go well if handling fibresand. Spencer also a strong booking with a 22% strike rate with this stable. So Is She's both wins have come round here but they were in a 3 runner seller and a weak maiden and hasnt shown anything in more competitive races which is a massive concern. Storm Runner returned to form last time out at Yarmouth in testing conditions finishing well, but still well held and has to prove handle this surface and whether his run style will be suited to this surface has to be questioned. Endaxi Mana Mou has dropped a long way in the weights after a poor summer, but returned to form last time out finishing well down the wide outside at Kempton last week, runs off the same mark today and looks a danger based on the fact his only win has come around here in a claimer when a comfortable winner that form looks good in the context of this race. 2pt win Oxford Gold 9/2 hills 1pt win Endaxi Mana Mou 5/1 bet365 8.00 Wolverhampton Eyedoro looks on an extremely harsh mark considering the races he run in were some poor maidens and has something to prove of this sort of mark but certainly open to improvement. Waltzing Cat has proved rather costly to follow into handicaps being sent of favourite all 3 starts but to be totally honest hasnt achieved much having always been held when 2nd on penultimate start and with handicapper reacting with a 3lb rise for that looks harsh and never looked like winning last time out off that revised mark and likely to find it tough again. I find it hard to believe Deceptive is as short as 7/2, he was a comfortable winner on penultimate start winnign extremely comfortably but failed to build on that 7 days later under a penalty and handicapper has now had his say and is now 12lb higher since that win and that makes things extremely tough with something to prove. For me Alshazah looks overpriced still having already been well supported in the overnight market. He too won extremely well over this trip at Kempton on penultimate start in a race when he got a torrid journey to the front and well worth more than the official winning distance. Up 5lb for that effort which looks more than fair despite failing off this mark last time out that was in a much stronger race and still run a very respectable effort runs off same mark again tonight and if the gaps appear he should be bang there! 3pt win Alshazah 6/1 lads