Jump Racing ~ 29th Oct

[mileni4uk]

Ascot 1.55 Big Time Billy 0.75pt EW - 18/1 Bet365 WH Decent form in good bumpers and 5th in the Irish champion bumper. Hasn't performed that well over hurdles so far, but his reappearance run wasn't bad and he's been dropped 2lbs for that. Cheek-pieces and upped in trip on handicap debut. Might run well at a price off low weight. Ascot 2.30 Baseball Ted 1.5pt EW - 6/1 Boyle Unlucky not to win 3 weeks ago, but he always finds a way to lose without the headgear. The cheek-pieces are back today and this track will suit him. Trainer continues in fantastic form and despite it being probably his toughest task to date, I think he can win. Always been highly regarded at his previous yard and record in the headgear is impressive. Ascot 3.00 Via Galilei 1pt EW (tipped yesterday) Nearby 0.5pt EW - 25/1 Lads Adding additional bet to yesterday's tip. Nearby runs off his County Hurdle mark and only needs to reproduce it to get involved here. This is a tough race, but I doubt it's much tougher than the County, in fact many of these might not progress over the season like the market expects them to. I want to have 2 good old handicappers on my side today. I think they'll both run well. Ascot 3.40 Exmoor Ranger 1pt EW - 16/1 gen Life Of A Luso 0.75pt EW - 16/1 Lads PP The Last Derby 0.75pt win - 25/1 Boyle Promising Anshan 0.5pt win - 9/1 Boyle Air Force One 0.25pt win - 16/1 gen Not much more to add about my 2 main selections, been backing them almost every time they've run. Still think Exmoor has a big handicap in him and has been given a chance by the assessor. Life Of A Luso has been staying on well lately and step-up in trip will suit. The Last Derby won this in 2009 and was tried highly last year. He doesn't really stay extreme distances, but 3m at Ascot are exactly what he needs. Saving on Promising Anshan, who is unexposed and Air Force One, who looks thrown in if he can rediscover his old form. 5pt staked overall. Wetherby 3.20 Time For Rupert 3pt EW (antepost) Weird Al 0.5pt win (antepost) Will be interesting to see what Weird Al can do with Donald McCain this season. I thought he went a bit off boil last year, but he is a classy horse and I'm saving stake on him. Time For Rupert goes on good ground and arguably is better horse than Diamond Harry. Was always underpriced last year and I was against him, but this season he could win a few races and be value, hopefully starting this weekend. Naas 4.00 Pozyc 1.5pt EW - 6/1 gen Sweet My Lord 0.5pt win - 12/1 gen Pozyc won well lto and has been in decent form all summer. Won a decent flat handicap and 2m4f on soft suits him well, because he has a lot of stamina. It took yard time to realize that, but now I expect them to reap the rewards. Idled a bit in front and possibly that played in his favour, because handicapper didn't raise him too much. His stablemate is passed over by Paul Townend and possibly won't be ready fto, but I rate him highly and I'll have to save on him.

[Lars]

Re: Jump Racing ~ 29th Oct Just the two, woke up a bit late and to be honest, it looks a tough day all round. Think I've found an "each-way bet to nothing" with Bet365 paying 4 places in one race in which the rest pay three. 14:30 Ascot ANQUETTA to me looks capable of a rating of around the upper echelons of the 130’s and racing off this mark of 130, it looks very possible that he’ll continue last season’s progression at this trip. Twice a winner last season over two miles, the last of which came off 5lbs lower, he followed up with a very decent run in the Grand Annual at Cheltenham, just fading in the closing stages after looking a big danger. He probably ran a few lbs higher that day than he’s currently rated and a replication of that effort today would see him go very close, especially off this mark. He’s since been dropped 2lbs in the ratings, mainly due to a dismal effort in a Cheltenham handicap. That run was too bad to be true, especially as backed into favouritism and was most probably “over the top” and it’s best ignored. Anquetta comes in off an absence but fitness unlikely to be an issue, as he’s gone well fresh before and has the handling of Barry Geraghty for the first time since a Novice Chase is also a positive. He’s not entirely straightforward (tail-swisher and can sometimes hang) but he looked to have grown up a fair bit when running at Cheltenham and with stronger handling today, it may make the difference. The Nicholls favourite is well-in under his penalty, but all his best runs have been off a break of some kind, and he might not take his races that well, he’s worth opposing anyway. I think Anquetta has definite progression to come, just depends on his fitness levels today. If he’s fit, he has an excellent chance with this race lacking in-depth, although Baseball Ted having headgear on means he’s likely the biggest danger, a price of 13/2 for my selection shouldn’t be ignored. ANQUETTA; 1.5pts @ 13/2 Bet365 (bog) 15:00 Ascot THIRD INTENTION will surely have improved for another summer on his back and although there are question marks as regards to whether he’ll settle today, they should go a decent clip and he’s looked much more mature in his past two starts, one of which was in a fairly small-field. He looks potentially high-class and should go very well in what is a decent race nonetheless. A winner on the flat in Ireland, he won on his hurdling debut at Newbury on this sort of ground (also off a break) but has missed out on another couple of victories by being too keen in the early stages and having nothing left in the finish. Even so, he showed enough promise for his trainer to pitch him in the Triumph Hurdle at Cheltenham and his 7th was very respectable, especially as he settled well and was staying on nicely at the death. It’s likely a race that competitive came a little too soon for him as I think he’s the type to keep getting better as he matures. His last start was a bloodless victory which was encouraging as you’d have expected that result, as he was a few lbs ahead of the rest of the field anyway. He settled well anyway and that was the most encouraging part of the performance. Allotted a mark of 143, he could well be a graded horse in the very near future and I’d expect a decent run off this mark. Although coming off an absence, he’s won when fresh in the past, will enjoy the ground conditions and should get the race run to suit, especially if they go a decent clip early on. If he’s learnt to settle (which he looks to have done), then he looks a serious prospect for the coming season. Unfortunately this is a tough race and he’ll need to be close to his best to win, but many come with questions about whether this race is just being used as a stepping stone to the Greatwood. Advising an each-way wager, especially as Bet365 are paying 4 places and even though he’s only 8/1, it looks a typical “each-way to nothing”. THIRD INTENTION; 1.5pts EW @ 8/1 Bet365 (4 places, bog)