A pentagon of SSB systems

[Ernesttico]

Hi everybody! After some days spent trying to build a profitable system with SoccerSystemBuilder (and once again I've to massively thank Matthew and Andy for their awesome work), I managed to create 5 systems that take into account several different parameters and values and which gave me a good yield. There're 2 systems for the home wins, 2 systems for the away wins and 1 system for the draws. At the moment I'll only papertrial these, but in a future (near or distant, who kwnows...) I could think of putting some real money. Here are the results so far: System 1 (for home wins) System 2 (for home wins) System 3 (for away games) System 4 (for away wins) System 5 (for draws) And after the introduction here are the first bets (unfortunately, for today they won't be the higher odds possible probably, for the next time I'll try to post as soon as the odds will appear): System 1 25/10/2011 - English League 2 - Northampton - Hereford 1 @2.04 5Dimes System 2 25/10/2011 - English League 1 - Wycombe Charlton 1 @4.89 Pinnacle 25/10/2011 - English League 2 - Torquay - AFC Wimbledon 1 @2.38 Ladbrokes 26/10/2011 - Italian Serie A - Cesena - Cagliari 1 @2.91 5Dimes 26/10/2011 - Italian Serie A - Genoa - Roma 1 @2.75 Victor Chandler 27/10/2011 - Spanish Primera Liga - Espanol - Betis 1 @2.25 Expekt System 3 25/10/2011 - English League 1 - Bury FC - Notts County 2 @2.50 Betfred 25/10/2011 - English League 1 - Sheffield Utd - Milton Keynes Dons 2 @3.40 Betfred 25/10/2011 - English League 1 - Yeovil - Leyton Orient 2 @2.81 5Dimes 25/10/2011 - English League 2 - Barnet - Southend 2 @2.07 5Dimes System 4 25/10/2011 - English League 1 - Hartlepool - Tranmere 2 @3.00 Stan James 25/10/2011 - English League 1 - Preston - Oldham 2 @4.33 Ladbrokes 25/10/2011 - English League 1 - Walsall - Exeter 2 @3.71 Pinnacle 25/10/2011 - English League 2 - Northampton - Hereford 2 @4.13 5Dimes 25/10/2011 - English League 2 - Shrewsbury - Accrington 2 @4.90 Pinnacle 26/10/2011 - Spanish Primera Liga - Getafe - Osasuna 2 @4.11 Pinnacle 27/10/2011 - Spanish Primera Liga - Ath. Bilbao - Atl. Madrid 2 @3.16 Pinnacle System 5 25/10/2011 - English League 1 - Brentford - Stevenage X @3.57 Pinnacle 25/10/2011 - English League 1 - Bury FC - Notts County X @3.49 Pinnacle 25/10/2011 - English League 1 - Carlisle - Sheffield Wed. X @3.63 Pinnacle 25/10/2011 - English League 1 - Sheffield Utd - Milton Keynes Dons X @3.56 Pinnacle 25/10/2011 - English League 2 - Bristol Rovers - Port Vale X @3.63 Pinnacle 25/10/2011 - English League 2 - Cheltenham - Crewe X @3.99 Pinnacle 25/10/2011 - English League 2 - Shrewsbury - Accrington X @4.00 Victor Chandler 26/10/2011 - Italian Serie A - Chievo - Bologna X @3.38 Pinnacle 26/10/2011 - Spanish Primera Liga - Getafe - Osasuna X @3.54 Pinnacle 26/10/2011 - Spanish Primera Liga - Levante - Sociedad X @3.66 Pinnacle 26/10/2011 - Spanish Primera Liga - Mallorca - Sp. Gijon X @3.42 Pinnacle

[Drawsandmore]

Re: A pentagon of SSB systems Wow, that's an awful lot of work you've put in to creating your systems. Obviously I don't know which parameters you've worked with, and by no stretch of the imagination am I a statistician, but at first glance I'm thinking along the following lines. System 1: A yield of over 20% over 11 full seasons is astounding :clap however, I would be a little concerned about the erratic (albeit positive) seasonal yield, and the number of selections is a little small. System 2: My preferred home system...Decent sample size, seems fairly consistent with regard to the number of selections each season, but again somewhat erratic yield figures. System 3: Decent sample size, seems fairly consistent with regard to the number of selections each season, and the yield figures are also fairly consistent, especially in the later seasons...My favourite system so far. :) System 4: A bit too erratic with both the yield and selections each year for my taste, but still an awesome set of figures. System 5: Obviously with my name I'm interested in draws, but that isn't the reason I feel sure this is far and away your best system. Very good and consistent number of selections in recent seasons, and a truly AWESOME, (and consistent) yield each season. Hells Bells, I might just jack my system in and follow your draws...More bets, and a better and more consistent yield than mine...I will certainly be keeping a very close eye on this in the future now that you're testing "live". Good luck with all of your systems Ernesttico, and please keep paper trailing and posting, even if some weeks are disappointing...Remember you're looking at the bigger picture, judge at the end of the season, not after a good or bad week or two.