Maybe Posted October 22, 2011 Share Posted October 22, 2011 This is a system, which has been designed to screen out those shock results which take down your bet. I'm sure you've experienced the situation : a few weeks ago, Celtic were considered to be a home banker at 1/7 to beat St Johnstone but lost. .. Last week, Rangers were a home banker at 1/7 to beat St Mirren but drew. This system is designed to screen out those shock results and hopefully bring a small accumulator. It is for fun only. Nothing is guaranteed. It is called Multibet because sometimes there will be a double, at other times a treble , sometimes a fourfold, etc. I start with a bank of £ 200 and will bet with £ 10 BET 1 10 points win accumulator Paris SG ( v Dijon) Porto ( v Nacional) The current online odds with William Hills are 1.29 and 1.17, giving a double of @ 1.50 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grex Posted October 22, 2011 Share Posted October 22, 2011 Re: SAFE MULTIBET system Good luck with this, Maybe :hope Can you give us a few clues as to how you "screen out" the unsafe bets ? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maybe Posted October 22, 2011 Author Share Posted October 22, 2011 Re: SAFE MULTIBET system Hi Grex...Thanks for your good wishes and congratulations on your Short Priced Home Favs System.... If mine proves to be half as good as your's, I'll be very happy. Over the past few months, I've been closely examining very tight home bankers that have lost. Without giving away too much, I think that there are several repeated reasons why these home bankers misbehave. Although the home team is heavily odds on,........ (a) ..The Away team might be unbeaten for several games and therefore is confident and therefore won't just lie down. They are especially confident if they have just won. (b) There might only be a few points between the teams in the league table. -.ie.- The odds for the home team might be misleading, making punters believe it to be a home banker when it is nothing of the sort. © They might be Italian. You can't be a serious gambler and involve Italian teams because of the corruption. It's in their DNA. [Go to wikipedia and type in " 2006 Italian football scandal".] (d) Weight of money being put on the game on the betting exchanges. If the high rollers are keeping their powder dry and if the bookies are pushing the odds out from Thursday to Saturday ( as shown on oddsportal), this shows that there is not much confidence in that home team and real worries. Similarly on the Asian Handicap betting....if there is a fair weight of money opposing a home win, that must be noted. Those Asians are no fools. (e) Injuries to players that have occurred since the match coupons were first released on Wednesday. That home banker that seemed so solid on Wednesday suddenly seems shaky on Saturday. There are other ( more ) important factors I use to screen out rogue results but I want to keep them secret for now. . Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grex Posted October 22, 2011 Share Posted October 22, 2011 Re: SAFE MULTIBET system Wow.... that's a lot of "screening factors", Maybe..... and a lot of hard work from your side to apply them..... with very little scope for "automating" it, I would imagine. I will follow this with a lot of interest - good luck :ok Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maybe Posted October 22, 2011 Author Share Posted October 22, 2011 Re: SAFE MULTIBET system Earlier today was a case in point. Ladbrokes had Liverpool 2/7 at home to beat Norwich. This would have led.....no, misled , millions of punters into thinking that it was a safe home banker, when it was neither safe nor a banker. Why ? Because there were only three points separating the two teams before the game and Norwich were full of confidence, having won their last game. For those and other reasons, I would have screened that out of any accumulator. The bookies often try to mislead punters. I don't subscribe to the argument that it is the weight of money from the punters which determines the price : the bookies set the price and often it is to lure punters into traps. A more realistic price for the Liverpool - Norwich game would have been 4/5 or 5/6. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
X__Gandalf__X Posted October 22, 2011 Share Posted October 22, 2011 Re: SAFE MULTIBET system There is no such thing as a 'Safe' Multibet. I predict: 1) You'll lose more often than you anticipate 2) You'll be tempted to post lame excuses as to why a particular safe bet let you down, including 'XYZ was a factor I hadn't taken into consideration, but I'll include that factor in future screening' 3) You'll give up posting your progress when your bank falls below £100 I hope you'll prove me wrong, but I honestly don't think so :hope Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
relf Posted October 23, 2011 Share Posted October 23, 2011 Re: SAFE MULTIBET system Earlier today was a case in point. Ladbrokes had Liverpool 2/7 at home to beat Norwich. This would have led.....no' date=' [u']misled , millions of punters into thinking that it was a safe home banker, when it was neither safe nor a banker. Why ? Because there were only three points separating the two teams before the game and Norwich were full of confidence, having won their last game. For those and other reasons, I would have screened that out of any accumulator. The bookies often try to mislead punters. I don't subscribe to the argument that it is the weight of money from the punters which determines the price : the bookies set the price and often it is to lure punters into traps. A more realistic price for the Liverpool - Norwich game would have been 4/5 or 5/6. Isn't this after-eventing? While I feel that 2/7 is too short, I think 4/5 or 5/6 would be too generous of the bookies. After all, Liverpool are playing at home. 1/2 would be reasonable to me. Just a personal opinion. ;) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grex Posted October 23, 2011 Share Posted October 23, 2011 Re: SAFE MULTIBET system I think we are all being a bit hard on Maybe. Gandalf...... why so negative? At least Maybe has the courage to share his system with us. Relf.... for once I have to disagree with you. I don't think Maybe was "after-eventing". He was simply demonstrating how his filtering approach works. Let's all get off his back, and see how the system progresses when Maybe starts posting selections :ok Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
froment Posted October 23, 2011 Share Posted October 23, 2011 Re: SAFE MULTIBET system Maybe has already run another nice system, so I'm looking forward to enjoy this one, too! Idea behind system is interesting, as they say "it's easy to pick the winners; difficult part is to avoid losers!" :lol I rely on statistics for my bets, too, so I also strongly consider teams' positions in table when deciding whether odds are worth taking or not. Fully agree with Grex regarding above negative comments; no need to condemn a system before it has even started! Good luck with system, hope it appears to be profitable one! :ok Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maybe Posted October 23, 2011 Author Share Posted October 23, 2011 Re: SAFE MULTIBET system Relf....how can it be "after-eventing", when it wasn't a bet of mine ?????????? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maybe Posted October 23, 2011 Author Share Posted October 23, 2011 Re: SAFE MULTIBET system X-Gandalf_X.... People like you, who contribute nothing positive to this forum should be banned. Or perhaps you could show us all your system ? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
X__Gandalf__X Posted October 23, 2011 Share Posted October 23, 2011 Re: SAFE MULTIBET system X-Gandalf_X.... People like you, who contribute nothing positive to this forum should be banned. Or perhaps you could show us all your system ? I suppose I am somewhat cynical when it comes to systems such as this. Banning my point of view would be a little harsh. If you restict the thread to strictly positive comments, a naive reader might think 'people have only good things to say about this - so it must work'. Surely I provide a little balance? :ok Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grex Posted October 23, 2011 Share Posted October 23, 2011 Re: SAFE MULTIBET system X-Gandalf_X.... People like you, who contribute nothing positive to this forum should be banned. Or perhaps you could show us all your system ? Be careful...... Gandalf is a poker-playing lady.... respect ;) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Datapunter Posted October 23, 2011 Share Posted October 23, 2011 Re: SAFE MULTIBET system Actually i agree with Gandalf although i might formulate the same a little nicer. To use the term "SAFE" is misplaced, misleading and in fact a little dangerous. There is nothing here that merits that term to be used, this system as it stands has as much inherent risk as any other posted here. And also as much chance of succeeding. The observation of a few months, especially on very short priced selection, is far too short to be able to draw any kind of meaningful conclusion. For that you need several complete seasons. If in a series of 50 bets you get one or 2 wrong, or simply not as expected, the result as a whole will shift considerably. After all a winner of 0.20 turns into a loser of -1 , get a few of those and profit turns into loss. There is still a chance the system as whole is profitable but that will only become apparent after 500+ bets. Another aspect is that the criteria leading to bet or not to bet are not fixed but partially based on your personal assesment of the factors for an individual match. This makes it difficult to be consistent in your selections over a long period of time. People have a tendency to "tweak" along the way based on recent results ignoring the question if that tweak is actually a good idea in a long term context. The result is that you cannot base conclusions long term as the data is too volatile. I.e. results from the past say nothing about results in the future. So what you have is a system based on your personal intuition, and not on any kind of objective criteria. Its chances of being successful are the same as anyone else. To think it actually is 'safe' would be an illusion as it's risk is also the same as anyone else. Good luck. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Datapunter Posted October 23, 2011 Share Posted October 23, 2011 Re: SAFE MULTIBET system Those Asians are no fools. Are you saying that the Asian handicap markets on Betfair are there for people from Asia ? Or that the money in Asian handicap markets is from Asian punters ? And that Asians, for some reason, are better at betting that others ? Or that Asian handicap markets are somehow a stronger indicator of the 'true' odds for a match than other markets ? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maybe Posted October 23, 2011 Author Share Posted October 23, 2011 Re: SAFE MULTIBET system Hi Datapunter Of course there is no such thing as a " SAFE " system and there never will be. I'm not stupid. I had to call my system something, so I called it that because I was trying to make it safer than just an ordinary accumulator. I know full well that there can never be such a thing as a guaranteed system and have never claimed that there can be. The negativity on this forum is sickening. Grex and others has experienced it too. You would think that I had asked people for some money. From this point onwards, I'll just post my bets and updates. There is no point in getting into any dialogue . If people don't like the title of my system , they can *$@* off. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Datapunter Posted October 23, 2011 Share Posted October 23, 2011 Re: SAFE MULTIBET system The discussion seems pointless but the reason is that you are not adressing the actual aspects raised. I don't care how you call it what's important is how you perceive your system to be. If you actually believe your system is safer compared to random betting on high priced favourites then my point is you are fooling yourself. At this point you have nothing that merits such conclusion and therefore you should approach it as carefully as any other unproven system. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ofcourseitwas Posted October 23, 2011 Share Posted October 23, 2011 Re: SAFE MULTIBET system great start MAYBE :ok Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maybe Posted October 23, 2011 Author Share Posted October 23, 2011 Re: SAFE MULTIBET system Update to Bet 1 - Paris SG Won 2-0 and Porto Won 3-0 So, a winning double. Profit = £ 5 Starting bank = £ 200 Bank is now = £ 205. ---------- Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grex Posted October 23, 2011 Share Posted October 23, 2011 Re: SAFE MULTIBET system Congratulations on a winning start. :clap Might be worth showing your yield/ROI in your statistics.... currently 50% :loon Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Silence. Posted October 23, 2011 Share Posted October 23, 2011 Re: SAFE MULTIBET system Good start. Will be following with interest. :ok Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
relf Posted October 25, 2011 Share Posted October 25, 2011 Re: SAFE MULTIBET system Relf....how can it be "after-eventing"' date=' when it wasn't a bet of mine ??????????[/quote'] Just happened to spot this, and apologies for the delay in response. Sorry if the comment sounded negative. My point was that I wasn't really convinced based on the fact that the explanation of the match result/odds was done after that the match had occurred. Would have been better if an upcoming match was chosen. In any case, like all of us on the forum here, we do hope that this system does well. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Silence. Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 Re: SAFE MULTIBET system Any bets for the weekend mate? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maybe Posted October 27, 2011 Author Share Posted October 27, 2011 Re: SAFE MULTIBET system Hi Silence... I expect most bets to be posted around midday on Saturdays. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maybe Posted October 29, 2011 Author Share Posted October 29, 2011 Re: SAFE MULTIBET system BET 2 10 points win accumulator Bayern Munich .. ( v Nurnberg ) Manchester City .. ( v Wolvesl) The current online odds with William Hills are 1.20 and 1.18, giving a double of @ 1.41 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maybe Posted October 29, 2011 Author Share Posted October 29, 2011 Re: SAFE MULTIBET system Update to Bet 2 Bayern Munich WON .... 4-0 Manchester City WON .. 3-1 Winning double ....£ 4-10 Today's bet ....41 % increase on the investment. . Starting Bank = £ 200 Bank is now = . £ 209-10 --------------------------------- Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maybe Posted November 5, 2011 Author Share Posted November 5, 2011 Re: SAFE MULTIBET system Still another mini-accumulator, a double... BET 3 10 points win accumulator Manchester Utd .. ( v Sunderland ) AZ Alkmaar .... ( v Den Haag) ... playing Sunday The current online odds with William Hills are 1.25 and 1.22, giving a double of @ 1.525 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maybe Posted November 7, 2011 Author Share Posted November 7, 2011 Re: SAFE MULTIBET system Update to Bet 3 Man Utd ......WON .. 1-0 AZ Alkmaar ..WON .. 3-0 Winning double ....£ 5-25 Today's bet .... 52 % profit on your bet. . Starting Bank = £ 200 Bank is now = . £ 214-35 --------------------------------- 6 games predicted out of 6. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bedlam Posted November 7, 2011 Share Posted November 7, 2011 Re: SAFE MULTIBET system :clapGoing well Maybe, nice to see you have the confidence to back yourself despite criticism, and the results so far are justifying your confidence! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moggis Posted November 9, 2011 Share Posted November 9, 2011 Re: SAFE MULTIBET system um,I am sorry Maybe isnt entering into debate anymore cos I am most intrigued to know why he doesnt also lay those "dangerous" odds-on shots his system identifies eg Liverpool(v Norwich).Surely they would be better value? Or at least post them. Also,Datapunter,you appear to have answered a question I asked on another thread a few weeks ago re.when exactly a system is said to be "proven". Could you please confirm that its proven after 500 games? Is this something that is generally agreed upon? If so,presumably that means that,at the present rate,we will have to wait til about 2016 to find out if this works before we all lump on!? I spose the bookie offering the best prices on the double that day will get a big surprise:)!! also,in november 2016,what roi will the bets have had to have made before its deemed proven? would 1% be enough or is there a minimum roi required after 500 games? How many people in the history of PL have actually achieved this 500 game proof and do we know what happened afterwards ie did the prices move on the week after the system was proven? If not,then does anyone have an explanation why not? many thanks,and good luck Maybe,see you in 2016(or earlier if you can step up the selections:)) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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