Flat Racing Saturday 22nd of October

[Aidymac]

:ok

[Aidymac]

Re: Flat Racing Saturday 22nd of October I am sticking with Dane O' Neill this fine Saturday. He has 4 rides at Donny all at nice prices and again i hope to get 1 up, will back all 4 e/w... Seems to have a couple of nice rides in there. Sea Of Galilee - Doncaster 1:30 Looks poised to win a race after a very nice run last time out over 1m 2f at Nottingham, 3rd to Area Fifty One, staying on late in the day suggesting it would like further and tomorrow it is running over further over a trip of 1m 4f. Won very easily on its 2nd run at Nottingham and that day looked like it had real talent , runs off the same mark as its last run and this race pays 4 places it looks a good e/w bet. Gusto - Doncaster 2:30 Hannon has two in this race but i really like this ones chances. Twice a winner over the distance it won nicely last time out at Kempton on the AW but is a proven winner on turf too as when winning at Haydock in August. Won that day by 4 lengths and is still lightly raced , im expecting a big run tomorrow. Rock The Stars - Doncaster 4:10 Is now only 1 pound higher after winning off 75 at Sandown back in July. On its only run at Doncaster it was 2nd of 18 in the Pertemps Handicap this time last year so it may like this course, well see tomorrow. I think the 20/1 available at the moment is a bit overpriced as it has now dropped 7 pounds in its last 2 runs and didnt run all that bad last time out at Salisbury when 4th to Avon River. The Confessor - Doncaster 4:45 Reportedly the ground was too fast for this horse last week at Ascot so if you rule out that run this horse must have a fighting chance in this race tomorrow. Before that was a very close 3rd to Decent Fella at Goodwood in a Class 2 race and the run before that was 2nd to Bronze Prince in the Heritage Handicap in a huge field again in a Class 2 race. Tomorrow is Class 3 and must have a good chance here. Backed Sea Of Galilee e/w @ 12/1 Bet365 BOG Backed Gusto e/w @ 9/1 Bet365 BOG Backed Rock The Stars e/w @ 20/1 Bet365 BOG Backed The Confessor e/w @ 16/1 Hills BOG

[Stevet1859]

Re: Flat Racing Saturday 22nd of October 3:00 Doncaster: Enke 1pt win 6/1 Ladbrokes Enke was an impressive winner at Newmarket coming away from his rivals by more than four lengths after meeting some trouble in running. With several others in the line up with bags of potential Enke looks the value at 6/1. Camelot has been havily backed and money usually talks, however, the form does not look anything special and both he and Fencing have been off the course a fair while. Fitness will not be a problem with their respective trainers, yet Enke looks as though he has been brought to a peak for this. Mahmood Al Zarooni is in red hot form and Frankie has been amongst the winners over the past couple of weeks. 3:15 Newbury: Whimsical 1pt e/w 20/1 William Hill (1/5 123) Looking through the form and the way she has been campaigned gives the impression that Whimsical is well thought of at home and has probably not shown as much on the track as anticpated. That may just be plain wrong, however, her second to Firdaws at Salisbury was decent form, the winner went on to on to run third albeit over four lengths behind Lyric Of Light in the Group One Shadwell Fillies Mile at Newmarket. Whimsical then disappointed at Doncaster before getting off the mark in an all weather maiden at Kempton. It could be that win will do her confidence the world of good and while Pimpernel will be hard to beat Whimsical might be in the shake up.

[switzerland]

Re: Flat Racing Saturday 22nd of October A few of my bets for tomorrow. Beaten Up - Newbury 2.45 11/2 WH A case can be made for half a dozen runners here but Beaten Up struck a chord with me on his two runs to date. This half brother to Harris Tweed was unraced as a 2 year old so should be open to any amount of improvement. Being so lightly raced he doesn't have the best form in the race but it was the manner of his win last time that was so taking. He destroyed what I thought was a pretty decent field with the likes of Mashaaref, Kenyan Cat, Art History lengths behind with Beaten Up hardly breaking sweat. Well worth having a look at it. He's a huge big horse so should have plenty of scope (not sure if this was some of the reason behind him being so lighly raced). Willie Haggas trains him, so he knows the family, and Johnny Murtagh takes the ride. Dangers aplenty with Barbican looking for a 4-timer, Al Kazeem has very decent form in the book and French Navy could bounce back if you ignore his poor run on Arc day. But Beaten Up looks like he could be a top class horse on the up. 2.15 Newbury Saigon 3/1 PP His form all year with Caspar Netschar looks very solid. They have met 4 times and there has never been more than 2lengths between them (Saigon beat him on the first occasion). Granted that was all over 6f and he steps up to 7f for the first time. It may suit judging by the way he was finishing in the Middle Park. 1.30 Doncaster Hot Spice 7/1 Ladbrokes I put this fella up on bet of the day last time he ran. It was a little disappointing that he couldn't win a 4 runner race and beat Franciscan. But in hindsight the Good to Firm going that day probably didn't suit and the galloping track at Doncaster might see him back to winning ways.

[BKI Punter]

Re: Flat Racing Saturday 22nd of October 3:00 Doncaster Enke 2pt win - 6/1 (Ladbrokes) Learn 1pt win - 16/1 (Ladbrokes) Enke could be anything and it's ridiculous that he's 6/1 with Camelot at 6/4. Camelot might be some wonderhorse but you do the talking on the track and an unfranked maiden win doesn't make him a 6/4 shot here. Godolphin horse hasn't put a foot wrong, narrowly losing out to a good horse on debut who franked the form by finishing second in a group three. Won as he liked odds-on next time out and looks a nice prospect. Learn is Camelot's stable-mate but has solid form himself. Finished close to David Livingston on debut, pulled miles clear with one other rival nto (who went close in a group two behind Dragon Pulse) and then won easily in a maiden, which included Akeed Mofeed. 16/1 looks massive. 2:30 Doncaster Dreamwriter 2pt win - 6/1 (Ladbrokes) Backed this horse lto after an impressive debut but was given a very odd ride by Hughes who appeared to give up all hope. Didn't switch the horse out wide which he should've, it's probably best to draw a line through it. Stays on a fast 6f which will suit and the Hannon team are still doing the business as always. 2:45 Newbury Al Kazeem 2pts EW - 4/1 (Bluesquare) French Navy 1pt win 8/1 (Ladbrokes) With 9 going to post, I think Al Kazeem is an each-way steal with the quarter odds Blue Square offer. Has the best form outta this bunch, and although they haven't been huge fields, hasn't been outside the first two all season. His run behind Green Destiny lto (although GD probably could've won by further) makes him the obvious one to beat and think he should be no more than 3/1. French Navy, although exposed, could pick up a race like this and he's a fair price if returning to form.

[Monterosso]

Re: Flat Racing Saturday 22nd of October 1:30 Doncaster - Hot Spice - 3pts @ 7/1 (Ladbrokes) I'm being a bit unoriginal here by backing the favourite in this 18 runner contest but Hot Spice looks overpriced at 7/1 and John Dunlop's 3 year old should be a lot shorter in the betting. In 2011, this talented gelding has won a couple of handicaps off marks of 64 & 67, the latter in very impressive fashion when running out a 2 length winner over this 1m 4f trip at Leicester. That was a much weaker contest than what he faces today but the way in which he travelled suggested he was a horse capable of finding even more improvement. The ground was also relatively fast that day and he does have quite a high knee action, so today's easier conditions will suit. Since that victory on his penultimate outing, Hot Spice ran another excellent race at Leicester when going down narrowly off a 9lb higher mark in a 4-runner affair. The winner of that race, Luca Cumani's Franciscan, is a similarly progressive type and the pair pulled well clear of the others (who weren't that good mind). It's not a race to get carried away with by any means but given that it wasn't satisfactory for Dunlop's charge, the raw performance deserves upgrading. The ground was also fast on that occasion and he didn't look overly happy on it, but kept on all the way to the line. There's a fair chance that he'll get a bit further than this trip but for now, he remains unexposed in the main and especially over this trip. Hot Spice went up a further 4lbs since his last run, leaving him nearly a stone higher than his last victory. However, I don't expect that he's in the grips of the handicapper just yet and could improve for the return to a less speed demanding surface (any unlikely rain would be very welcomed). The flatter track that he faces today will not inconvenience and not many of the opposition are open to as much improvement as he is. The big field will be right up his street and he's bound to get a solid pace to run after, which is something that's needed. It's just a case of whether the splits will come at the right time, but he'll have plenty of opportunity if he's good enough. Hot Spice will also have the chance to get plenty of cover (can race keenly, so that should help) and Ted Durcan is back on board having ridden him for the first time in a handicap last time out. John Dunlop's yard are in expcetional form of late - with 4 winners and 4 seconds from his last 20 runners, so there's no better time to catch his runners. Overall, 7/1 is a cracking price (5's would be fair, maybe even shorter) and I'll play medium win stakes. Plenty of the rest are interesting but Hot Spice has the ability to improve well past this mark and hopefully he'll show that here.

[Monterosso]

Re: Flat Racing Saturday 22nd of October 2:00 Doncaster - Swilly Ferry - 1pt e/w @ 25/1 (Bet365, 5 places) Taking a wild punt here in this 22-runner, 5f sprint handicap. Swilly Ferry is an exceptionally well-handicapped horse on some of his form last year and although he only has a few half-decent runs to his name this season, he's capable of getting involved at a fancy price here. Charles Hills' 4 year old colt hasn't set the world alight since scoring off a 7lb higher mark (96) over 6f at Newmarket last May but he's now dropped back to 5f for the first time since his opening couple of runs as a juvenile and that's taken to suit. Swilly Ferry isn't lacking for speed at all and if first-time cheekpieces work the oracle, a return to form off a very nice rating wouldn't surprise me at all. He ran his best race of the year when 3rd over 6f at Goodwood in first-time blinkers a couple of starts ago and although it wasn't a fantastic run by any means (he had plenty to suit), it proved that he still retained a fair amount of his old ability. Hills' charge performed abysmally when last seen at the beginning of September, as he was tailed off in a similar contest to this. I can't spot any obvious reasons as to why he ran so poorly but he did the exact same thing on his previous 5 visits to York, so maybe he just doesn't like the place (despite having run well there at 2). Swilly Ferry has no such bad form around this course, as he landed a very valuable sales race over 7f here during his juvenile campaign. He also ran excellent races on his only other pair of outings at this track (including on debut over this 5f trip) and the return to Doncaster could help spark a revival for a horse with undoubted talent. He's also likely to be freshened up significantly by a recent 48 day lay-off and can go well fresh, so hopefully that'll help him too. He's drawn in stall 22 of 22 and that's perfect, as high draws usually dominate the sprint races at this track. The Charles Hills yard are in decent form of late (had a 33/1 winner here yesterday) and Robert Winston is on board this fellow for the first time, which is a definite step up on Michael Hills. Swilly Ferry is hardly a winner-in-waiting or anything but he's 25/1 here with 5 places being paid (28/1 with 4 places) and looks worthy of small stakes each-way support. If he can give his best, he could run a big race with plenty being in his favour. Stuart Williams' vastly improved 4 year old filly, Dreamacha (14/1), is the next-best bet and may be worthy of a few quid too. Tough race to get right but that pair look to be the value calls to me.

[Monterosso]

Re: Flat Racing Saturday 22nd of October 2:30 Doncaster - Accession - 3pts @ 6/1 (Bet365) I'm going to side with a Cive Cox runner yet again here by backing Accession in this 6f juvenile Listed race. This speedily bred colt ran a cracker on debut (September 2nd) when just touched off by a well thought of Ed McMahon trained filly (bare form strong) and he duly stepped up on that performance when scooting away in a decent Newbury maiden a couple of weeks later. The way in which he travelled throughout before running on strongly to the line was in the style of a potentially very useful animal and this step up to Listed level shouldn't be a worry if all is well. Accession was quite green on debut (according to Cox) but did look like the winner having quickened up nicely before getting swamped in the closing stages (got tired having run down a solid pace). Cox said after his next outing that if he had of went one better on debut that he'd of taken up his engagement in the Mill Reef and it's clear that this fellow is well thought of at home. It wasn't until the final furlong of the Newbury run that he got on top of a useful type but he was exceptionally strong at the finish when hitting top gear and should come on a fair amount for the experience, which will hopefully lead to him responding to pressure a bit quicker here - as he will have to. Today's conditions should be perfect and the Doncaster track is ideal, so there's no worries there. Accession, despite being bred for sprint distances, could well get further in time (based on how strong he was at the finish last time out) but this test should be right up his street for the moment. A good gallop to run at is likely and with Clive Cox's animals being in such good form of late, there should be no excuses for him. I'm quite sure that he'll be more than good enough to hold his own at this level and Richard Hannon's impressive debut winning filly (flopped since; had excuses), Dreamwriter (6/1), is the only one I'm very worried by. I'm going to play medium win stakes on Cox's charge, as I feel he's quite a bit overpriced at 6/1 and should run a big race - hopefully one that ends in victory.

[Monterosso]

Re: Flat Racing Saturday 22nd of October 4:10 Doncaster - Stagecoach Danman - 1pt e/w @ 16/1 (Ladbrokes, 4 places) Things haven't went too well for Stagecoach Danman since he was an impressive, eased-down, 6-length maiden winner at Pontefract in June. However, I feel he's capable of laughing at his handicap rating of 80 if on song and given that he's a Mark Johnston trained animal, a return to form could occur at any time (although it's not something to bank on!). Despite 17 runners being set to go to post for this 1m 4f contest, Johnston's charge could well get an uncontested lead and if he does, he will prove to be very tough to peg back (although he doesn't need to lead). Stagecoach Danman is still a very lightly-raced 3 year old having only lined up on 9 occasions (7 on turf) and there's bound to be a lot more to come once he returns to producing his best. When winning that maiden race over this trip at Pontefract, on his fifth career outing, Johnston's nicely bred gelding looked to be one to follow for handicaps but alas, his form went downhill somewhat. The assessor put him up 6lb (to 84) for that easy win and he was sent off as a 4/5 favourite over today's C&D when lining up next time out. Stagecoach Danman was beaten by just over 3 lengths in the end but he got squeezed out when staying on late in the day and that ruined his chances, as he could well of won the race if he didn't suffer any interference. He has run poorly on 3 occasions since but has excuses for 2 of them (soft ground, trip and level of opposition made things very tough) and as a result he's dropped back to a mark of 80, which is very attractive if he's in the same vein of form as when scooting away at Pontefract in June. He's also droppped back to Class 4 level for the first time since his solid C&D run and that's bound to suit, as he was just flying too high (given the conditions) on his last few outings. The favourite for today's race, Tartan Gunna, seems to be the first choice Johnston trained horse (SDS on board) but he's not reliable at all and looks much too short in the market at 6/1 (plus it's his first run at this trip). Jimmy Fortune takes the reins for a rare ride for the Johnston yard and he's 3 from 17 when riding for them. Fortune is an exceptional jockey in my opinion and he should be more than capable of coaxing the talented Stagecoach Danman into giving his best. The track, trip and ground are all ideal for this relentless galloping horse and overall, he looks quite overpriced at 16/1 with 4 places being paid. Small each-way stakes again as it's a very risky bet but if he is back to form, I fully expect a massive run from him. Hopefully he is.

[Stevet1859]

Re: Flat Racing Saturday 22nd of October 3:45 Newbury: Glencadam Gold 2pts win 1pt place 20/1 (1/4 1234) Bet365 Glencadam Gold has over a hundred day absence to overcome but with Sir Henry Cecil as his trainer that won't be a problem and the break may just have freshened Glencadam Gold up. He is lightly raced and has some good form to his name. At the start of the season Glencadam Gold went down by only half a length to Art History who has been running well all season and has just notched up a pair of wins. Glencadam Gold got off the mark for the season at Newmarket from a rating of 89. That smooth victory saw Parlour Games behind, and that is another horse that has gone on to show fine form with wins at Ascot and York. Glencadam Gold was then highly tried at Ascot and ran poorly at Newmarket in July. Back here off a mark four pounds higher than his last win and with the ground in Glencadam Gold's favour, he should go well at a decent price in a wide open race.

[bowles10]

Re: Flat Racing Saturday 22nd of October Richard Hannon is the top trainer across both main flat cards today and again has a number of horses running. Dont be surprised if he manages a decent price one in the frame today so consider 2.15 Newbury Producer 12/1 3.15 Newbury My Queenie 25/1 and Whimsical 16/1 3.35 Doncaster Wolfgang 12/1 4.20 Newbury Kylin 12/1 The above 5 are above 10/1 odds, having an EW doubles, trebles and 2 four folds on those 4 races

[Falbrav]

Re: Flat Racing Saturday 22nd of October FENCING 3.00 Doncaster. 1 point win. Form of recent win looks strong in context, and although up against a couple of potential very useful horses, should be able to uphold form and probably improve further. Trip and ground suitable and should be quite tough to beat today. 11/4 Bet365 BOG

[Aidymac]

Re: Flat Racing Saturday 22nd of October

I am sticking with Dane O' Neill this fine Saturday. He has 4 rides at Donny all at nice prices and again i hope to get 1 up, will back all 4 e/w... Seems to have a couple of nice rides in there. Sea Of Galilee - Doncaster 1:30 Looks poised to win a race after a very nice run last time out over 1m 2f at Nottingham, 3rd to Area Fifty One, staying on late in the day suggesting it would like further and tomorrow it is running over further over a trip of 1m 4f. Won very easily on its 2nd run at Nottingham and that day looked like it had real talent , runs off the same mark as its last run and this race pays 4 places it looks a good e/w bet. Gusto - Doncaster 2:30 Hannon has two in this race but i really like this ones chances. Twice a winner over the distance it won nicely last time out at Kempton on the AW but is a proven winner on turf too as when winning at Haydock in August. Won that day by 4 lengths and is still lightly raced , im expecting a big run tomorrow. Rock The Stars - Doncaster 4:10 Is now only 1 pound higher after winning off 75 at Sandown back in July. On its only run at Doncaster it was 2nd of 18 in the Pertemps Handicap this time last year so it may like this course, well see tomorrow. I think the 20/1 available at the moment is a bit overpriced as it has now dropped 7 pounds in its last 2 runs and didnt run all that bad last time out at Salisbury when 4th to Avon River. The Confessor - Doncaster 4:45 Reportedly the ground was too fast for this horse last week at Ascot so if you rule out that run this horse must have a fighting chance in this race tomorrow. Before that was a very close 3rd to Decent Fella at Goodwood in a Class 2 race and the run before that was 2nd to Bronze Prince in the Heritage Handicap in a huge field again in a Class 2 race. Tomorrow is Class 3 and must have a good chance here. Backed Sea Of Galilee e/w @ 12/1 Bet365 BOG Backed Gusto e/w @ 9/1 Bet365 BOG Backed Rock The Stars e/w @ 20/1 Bet365 BOG Backed The Confessor e/w @ 16/1 Hills BOG

Good day today! Sea Of Galilee and Rock The Stars disappointed but Gusto won his race, with a good ride put in a gutsy performance, 9/1 was a nice price! The Confessor is a non-runner so nice profit today! :beer

[georgeCOSTANZA]

Re: Flat Racing Saturday 22nd of October

Sport	Horse Racing
Event	Wolverhampton 5:50
Selection	Miss Chicane (Each-way)
Strength	2/10
Date	22/10/2011
Bookmaker/Price	Sportingbet @ 13.00
Reasoning	Very dissapointing this year after making a winning seasonal debut but the hood has began to bring that form back. He was fitted with the equipment three runs ago in August and finished 5th of 7 by 4 1/2 lengths. That was an improvement from his previous three runs of 12th of 14 9th of 9 and 9th of 10. Penultimate run was for 6th of 10 by 3 1/4 lengths with last time out even better for 4th of 11 by 1 3/4 lengths.

[georgeCOSTANZA]

Re: Flat Racing Saturday 22nd of October

Sport	Horse Racing
Event	Wolverhampton 6:50
Selection	Priestley's Reward (Each-way)
Strength	2/10
Date	22/10/2011
Bookmaker/Price	Bet365 @ 11.00
Reasoning	Has had some good runs and capable of this if that progress continues. First time he finished well three runs ago when 2nd of 4 by 3/4 lengths at Newcastle. Just 12 lengths behind the winner for 10th of 18 after that but bounced back last time out from a wide drawn. Finished 6th of 13 by 4 lengths from having the widest draw of 13 runners at Nottingham. Martin Hartley was booked for the first time last time out and again booked today. He's ridden well for trainer Miss K Burke and she's been a good stable to follow in recent times. She has 2 wins and 1 placed form her last 4 runs. 3 raced here with 2 having been a winner. She trained Rougini to win on the all-weather debut so the selection is likely ready for the same thing.

[georgeCOSTANZA]

Re: Flat Racing Saturday 22nd of October

Sport	Horse Racing
Event	Wolverhampton 7:20
Selection	Potentiale (Each-way)
Strength	2/10
Date	22/10/2011
Bookmaker/Price	Bet365 @ 6.00
Reasoning	Placed in last two starts. 3rd of 10 by 11 lengths at Nottignham two runs ago. Much better on the all-weather at Kempton last time out when 2nd of 13 by 1 3/4 lengths. The blinkers was refitted last time out and that may be the cause of his form boost. Seb Sanders was also booked for the first time this year and again here today. He's very effetive on the all-weather having finished 3rd or better in 7 of 14 starts; 1 win, 5 seceonds, 1 third. Lifetime form with Sanders is 2nd, 3rd ,2nd so we'l lsee his best.