BBOTD 19th October

[chris34]

8.50 Kempton Plenty of pace on in this race with Norse Blues, Dens Gift and Gaily Noble all known to push on from the front and Dens Gift has a tendency to go off to fast these days and burn up will suit anything behind as he generally struggles to win these days despite running well at times. Santefisio won well over CD last month but has always struggled when mark hits the mid 80s and this looks a hotter race and has something to prove off this sort of mark. Flowing Cape took advantage of a drop in grade on good terms in a claimer to win last time out but had four trys over mile including when in form and has failed to offer much and this looks competitive for him these days. Moynahan is a frustrating sort offer runs a good race that suggest he is capable of better next time out but fails to deliver ever time, 2 wins from 38 starts is hardly inspiring despite this race likely to be run to suite and does have some form on the AW is opposable with such a poor strike rate. Big Bay would have a chance if anywhere near his best but his overall profile is very off putting just completly bombs out 99% of the time but does seem to go better here than others and is a 1lb lower than last win but awful effort last time out enough to avoid and small break to also overcome. Ree's Rascal ran a cracker after a break last time out over a trip that he probably found a bit sharp, should be suited to this return to a mile and a strongly run race but he is 14lb above his last winning mark which could be a big ask for a horse that has been on the go all year and will need to continue sharp upward curve to take this and at current prices he is too much of a risk and form of the yard is off putting had a rather quiet summer. Fanshawe and Fallon have teamed up well just recently to land a few punts and also get Fallon some vital winners and they must hold a strong hand again in this race with Snow Magic who hasnt been seen for over 3 months having won with great ease over CD, only 4lb higher and still completely unexposed on this surface with just 4 runs with 3 wins. Concern is obviously the break but yard do pretty well with fresh horses, she will need them to go fast upfront as she clearly stays further and this is probably not her best trip. The other worry has to be that the form of her last win has worked out very disappointingly but she is so unexposed she clealry still has improvement in her. Red Somerset is better on the AW than turf and although most of his wins these days come in claimers he can be competitive in handicaps as he showed last time out over CD when staying on strongly towards the finish off this mark, should get a race run to suit and well handicapped if running anywhere near to his best although that cant be guaranteed with his nature but well worth a saver! The other that looks worth of a small E/W bet is Round Won who has been off the track for nearly 2 months having looked amiss last 2 runs, hopefully they have sorted that out and the addition of the hood for the first time would suggest they want a good run rather than just see how he gets on after a break. He was an impressive winner over this course over 2f further back in February handicapper hit him fairly hard for that rising him 9lb he then ran a great race in a conditions event which earnt him another 1lb but has generally struggled since then but could be capable of better if anywhere near his best again. 1pt win Snow Magic 9/2 hills

[Petersson1984]

Re: BBOTD 19th October 16:20 Worchester Illysantachristina Win (4,33) Boylesports The 8 year old mare, showed decent form lately at Ffos Las, when second over at simular going and distance. Now she gets the chance to revenge her self, off the same mark. She have riden her best this season and won 3 and placed in 1 in 8 runs. Illysantachristina recent form. 1-6-1-6-2 The jockey Aodhagan Conlon gets his 3th run, on the horse. He was on board on one of the recent wins.