Flat Racing 12th October

[chris34]

8.10 Kempton Beat Route is of interest returned to AW, hasnt shown much on turf recently but tends to run much better on AW, but main concern is he remains 6lb higher than last winning mark and I am not the biggest fan of jockey on board today and from a wide draw is also a negative. Evergreen Forest got off the mark last time out in a maiden in very comfortable style, has been well held in handicaps previously and finds himself another 3lb higher since last handicap run and will need to improve again which isnt out of the question. Deceptive is going to have to underperform massively to be beaten in this race in my opinion, some promise in handicaps in the summer before going on a break before improving massively for the switch to AW winning by 7 lengths last week over CD, runs under a 6lb penalty tonight and is still 7lb well in here and at 6/4 looks a massive price drawn in stall 1 is another positive and yard continue to bang in the winners. Should Deceptive not run upto the form he showed last week Potentiale looks a likely contendeer to pick up the pieces and is worth a small saver. Not won this year but has run upto his best most of the time and ran well last time out under inexperienced rider who left him far too much to do but ran extremely strongly at the finish, has a good record on the AW 1 win and 5 placed efforts from 13 starts 3lb below last winning mark on turf and wears first time blinkers today has showed improved form in cheekpieces including winning form so hope lies on them having desired effect. 4pt win Deceptive 6/4 bet365 1pt win Potentiale 12/1 bet365 8.40 Kempton Just a small E/W interest in the second division off this handicap. Kames Park looks a well handicapped horse again on his best form, he is never one to rely in fully because he is a difficult character to predict. He requires a strong gallop to aim at and didnt get that last time out at Wolves but still ran with credit and left the impression that perhaps he was ready to strike again. Now a 1lb below last winning mark and has won off much higher marks in the past and always saves his best for the polytrack 8 wins and 12 places from 34 starts not a bad show. Should get a strong gallop to aim at with Perilously and Fifty Cents in the line up and Guest yard appears in fine fettle at the moment with several big priced runners running well in recent days. 1pt e/w Kames Park 14/1 bet365

[StuSimmy]

Re: Flat Racing 12th October Dettori travels to Nottingham for just two rides today and for a man in decent form, I quite fancy his chances to land a double today. 15:45 Nottingham Covert Desire was pretty unlucky not to break his maiden tag last time out at Newcastle where he went down by a head and I think he will make amends for that today by getting his head in front. That was only his second run, his first run came at today's track where he broke away slowly which scuppered any chances for him. He did make some late headway once getting the hang of things and was an eyecatcher from that race for me. The form of his last race has worked out quite well with the winner going close twice off a mark of 80 in handicap company and the 4th placed horse (who was over 6 lengths behind) winning twice since. 16:20 Newcastle Rebel Song makes his second appearance here today and although he was well beaten in 3rd place on debut at Beverley, he did run well in snatches despite running green as well. Should come on for said run and if rid of any greeness today, he should go close. The form of the race isn't appealing at all but the fact Frankie has chose those over other Godolphin runners in the race is another positive sign for me. 2pt win Covert Desire @ 5/2 (Ladbrokes) 2pt win Rebel Song @ 7/2 (Ladbrokes) 2pt double