BBOTD 7th of October

[Aidymac]

Arabian Spirit - York 3:05 Has won over the trip twice and is ultra consistent although does not win as many races as it should. Ran a nice race last time out at Newmarket when 4th to Indian Jack. Anytime Tony Hamilton has ridden the horse it has finished 3rd, from two rides. Fahey has 4 in the race and of the 4 i like this one the most. Will be there or thereabout at the finish as it is very consistent, im hoping it has that final burst to finish out the race and at this price i think its worth a go. WIN @ 16/1 Bet365 BOG

[Lars]

Re: BBOTD 7th of October 15:05 York Posted this last time for RIGGINS.

15:50 Newmarket Likely that I'll post a couple more up for this race later but little short of time at present and don't want to miss the price with RIGGINS who I still think is well-handicapped off his current mark of 98 and now getting ideal conditions for only the second time this season, he should run a big race. Very lightly-raced for his age due to injury, he's had a quiet season after a very decent 2010 which included a 3rd in a competitive CD handicap after a year off, 2nd in the Royal Hunt Cup off a mark of 100, a cracking effort in a Goodwood Group 2 over 7f and then a win in a Listed contest at Kempton. He hasn't been the same since but it's possible that the trip to Dubai really took it out of him (trainer has stated that he hated the experience). Alongside this, three of the four efforts have been on softer ground which he's never shown his best form on and never really looked happy on it. That being said, he put up a good effort when set an impossible task in the Celebration Mile at Goodwood, sticking about for a lot longer than the figures suggested he would. Penultimate effort at York suggested he was coming back to something like his best too (not knocked about and not a clear run, soft ground too). He should make his presence felt off a mark of 98 with conditions to suit. Ed Walker stated that he didn't like to be crowded which is an obvious negative in a big-field like this, but the plan will likely be to keep him out of trouble and George Baker is canny enough to do so. I think he's up to running up to a mark of about 104ish when conditions are right, and although such a performance might not be enough to see him win in such a competitive race. A price of 28/1 with 5 places paid is too big. Another concern would be that horses aren't really making that much ground from the back generally, the bias might be different tomorrow though and I'll take my chances.

That Newmarket effort is best ignored, especially as he was stuck behind a wall of horses throughout and was blocked in his effort/hampered on about four occasions. Has been dropped 1lb since that effort and I still think he's 7-8lbs well-in. Although this is a decent looking handicap, I've always thought Riggins has a touch of class about him and as long as this shower they're forecasting at York doesn't get into the ground and it remains on the quick side, he's definitely overpriced at 12/1. RIGGINS; Win @ 12/1 Ladbrokes (bog)