BBOTD 28TH of September

[Aidymac]

Oil Strike - Salisbury 4:10 Very competitive race here, i have picked out 10 horses that all have claims on form but i have plumped for Oil Strike who ticks all the boxes for me. He runs off 85 tomorrow, 3 pounds lower than its last winning mark and went very close last time out at Lingfield over 7 furlongs, getting beat by Yair Hill. Both its wins have come on the all-weather but its only a matter of time before it wins on turf. I cant see a time in its last 10 starts where it didnt run a creditable race, and it is a regular runner in Class 2 and Class 3 races , so tomorrow is Class 4, it represents a drop in class, albeit in a very hot race. Two starts back at Sandown it ran very well also when 5th to Ajjaadd in a Class 3 contest, trading low in that race. Has run at Salisbury once off the same mark as tomorrow and lost by a head in 2nd to The Confessor, trading at 1.14 in running. Both its wins have come over tomorrows trip of 6 furlongs and Peter Winkworth is in good form with 2 wins and 4 places from his last 10 runners. James Rogers has ridden for him 4 times and he won on 2 of them horses, a very interesting stat, a 50% win strike-rate for the trainer. At Salisbury the pair are 1/1, a 100% win strike-rate. Not only that but there seems to be a slight advantage to be drawn low over 6f at Salisbury and it is drawn in Stall 2. Has every chance i feel. WIN @ 9/1 Bet365 BOG

[Boulder5111]

Re: BBOTD 28TH of September N4.50 Newport Arch 0.5pt E/W 22/1 William Hill It's a bit too early to be writing off this 3-y-o just 5 runs into its racing career and the piece of form which gives it a decent chance here was at this course over 7 furlongs when beating Ventura Sands which has since won off a mark of 68. The selection runs off 64 here having initially started life in handicaps off 70. The horse is one of only two 3-y-o in the race and interestingly there were only 2 in last years race and they filled the 1st and 3rd places. The trainer and jockey are in decent form and teamed up for a 14/1 winner on Tuesday. The general consensus is that those drawn low could be favoured so the draw of 4 of 15 could be another plus and the 22/1 looks too big if the horse can show its form again back at this track.