BBOTD 25th of September

[Petersson1984]

15:00 Epsom Downs Our Gal Win (6,00) Bet365 8 horses are set to start in this mid day Epsom Downs race. Our Gal gets my vote after two impressive runs in her last three starts. She won back in july, at a race one furlong shorter and after a decent run last time at Ascot, where she finished 3 over same distance and almost simular going, we might see the best of her here. Jockey Martin Lane only got two races at Epsom Downs and he is still looking for his first win. Our Gal might be what he need, to break that loosing streak. Trainer Noel Quinlan got a strikerate of 33,33 % after 3 runs here at this course.

[Aidymac]

Re: BBOTD 25th of September Blue Dahlia - Curragh 2:40 I hate when im torn between 2 horses, i am torn between Blue Dahlia and Maarek but i have stuck to my guns and gone for Blue Dahlia.. Blue Dahlia beat Just For Mary by a short-head last time out over 5f and now tackling the 6f tomorrow will be more suitable, even though it is up 5 pounds. It is proven on the course and over the distance with 2 C+D wins already. it is 3/7 at the track, 2/9 over the distance, but interestingly is 2/2 on soft going and the jockey is 1/2, so has everything in its favour tomorrow. Competitive race but im hoping this one can do the business and i think is a nice price. Maarek was the one i thought would be the danger , coming 4th to Cheveton in the big race at Ayr recently. WIN @ 14/1 Hills BOG

[hereforthep]

Re: BBOTD 25th of September 17.30 Musselburgh Jeu De Vivre - 1pt win @ SP Jeu De Vivre will take all the beating here she looked better than ever when winning very well over the extedned 1m last time out and the penalty still might not be enough to stop her here if in the same mood

[Haystacks]

Re: BBOTD 25th of September Vizean - 3.20 Musselburgh (0.5ew 10-1 BET365 BOG) To dare Vizean has run in six maiden races, including five this year. In each of those five races she has finished runner-up, as follows: 10 May Anoint (now rated 82) won by 1.25 lengths; 3rd was Another For Joe (now rated 69); 2.75 lengths behind 16 Jun Bless You (now rated 84) won by 2.50 lengths; 3rd was Miss Mediator (now rated 74), nse behind 7 Jul My Own Way Home (now rated 65) won by shd; 3rd was Green Howard (now rated 74), 2.25 lengths behind 30 Jul Choolie Royale (now rated 74) won by nk; 3rd was So Wise (now rated 64), 6 lengths behind 10 Aug Mrs Greeley (now rated 76) btn by nk; 3rd was Maz (now rated 61) 3.75 lengths behind With the sole exception of My Own Way Home all of these horses make Vizean's current mark of 69 look very workable indeed. Since her last run the filly has changed stables to Jim Goldie, and the return to 7f and also the services of the excellent claimer Julie Burke in the saddle may help. She likes to front run, and if she can get a lead then the sharp Musselburgh turns might suit her much better than the straight courses that she has been running on lately, where she has been known to drift around.

[jbolt1]

Re: BBOTD 25th of September where can I see the favourites of the day?? % probability of experts? any web? thanks, good work.:clap

[wafer]

Re: BBOTD 25th of September 6:00 Ya Boy Sir @ Musselburgh - Won two 5 furlong races last year but hasn't been very good since.Ran well when missing the start here at Musselburgh back in July finishing 4th.Duran Fentiman takes the ride and goes well here with a profit of +9.25 this year. 0.5 pt E/W @ SP

[Monterosso]

Re: BBOTD 25th of September 3:35 Epsom - Right Step - win @ 9/1 (WillHill) First off, a lack of pace in this 1m 2f contest has to be a worry but if it is a steady gallop, it's likely to hinder the majority of this field from what I can see. Regardless of what could happen, I'm going to side with Right Step to bounce back to form, as he comes here on the back of a couple of awful efforts, both over 1m 4f at York. Those performances weren't his true running at all (plenty of excuses to be found) and on both occasions, he wasn't given a hard race once beaten. A return to his best would see his price-tag of 9/1 look a bit silly, but whether or not he will produce his best is another thing. The drop back to this trip is a big positive for Right Step and he's now getting some leeway from the handicapper, which hasn't been the case for a long time. Today, he runs off 94 and the race before his pair of flops was a Listed H'cap in which he came home in 4th place off a mark of 100 (hated the ground) - having reached that mark on the back of 4 consecutive 2nd place finishes which saw him rise 12lbs in the ratings, testament to his usual consistency despite racing in very good handicaps. One of those seconds was over this C&D, in which Alan Jarvis' 4 year old colt just found Resurge to be too good, and that's a horse who always saves his best for this track. That was off a 3lb higher mark (97) in a C2 H'cap and a replication of that run would surely see Jarvis' charge go close here, although he had a sound gallop to run after that day. Other pieces of form give Right Step every chance of getting involved here and today he's dropping down to C3 level for the first time in a long time, which is another plus. Right Step is clearly the class horse of the race and having had no less than 6 seconds from his 19 career outings (only win in a maiden at 2), he's due a bit of luck. Alan Jarvis has his yard in very good form of late and today he sees fit to book Jamie Spencer for what will be his first ride on this fellow. That's an interesting move, as Spencer - who has a 15% SR for Jarvis - hasn't ridden for him since 2008 and both of the horses previous jockeys are going to Epsom today. Spencer seems like the ideal partner for this horse and I'm convinced that he'll be able to get the best of him, it's just a case of whether he's hindered by how the race will be run. The ground is perfect if it is as listed (good) and the track holds no problems, so I fail to see how he's deemed to be a 9/1 shot. One firm go 11/2 and that'd be more reflective of his chances, although I can find reasons to believe he should be shorter again. The opposition are no great shakes either and the Godolphin horse, Con Artist, would be the one I'm most afraid of. It's impossible to weigh up his chances after something seemed to be wrong with him when last seen (tailed off in May; sent off 7/2 fav), but potentially, he's quite useful if back on song. Regardless, he's a much riskier proposition and looks under-priced, despite being a progressive type in 2010. Right Step looks to be the one to side with and having had 5 weeks off, he will hopefully come back here and prove capable of giving his best. He hasn't been over-raced this season either and surely deserves to get his head in front again (not that that matters). Medium win stakes for me, as I think the price is very wrong but it's still a bet with plenty of risks, so who knows how it'll go.

[andyjkmak]

Re: BBOTD 25th of September 3.35 Epsom Roman Eagle looks as if he has been crying out for this step up in trip. Decent run lto and most of the opposition today have big question marks against them. Ramona Chase would look to be the biggest threat with his excellent course record but the penalty puts me off as he finds little under pressure.Not sure where the pace is going to come from here as the majority are hold up horses but Roman Eagle should have a great chance to record another win today. 1 Pt win 4/1 Boylesports

[fintron]

Re: BBOTD 25th of September 2.40 curragh Maarek - posted a career best when fourth in Silver Cup at Ayr last Saturday and has gone well at the Curragh in the past. 16/1 b365, 1 pt win

[anokazr]

Re: BBOTD 25th of September 15.00 Epsom Sure Route 7/2 Ladbrokes Toss up between this and dubawi gold won decent maidens and have been bumped up in weight here, i rate neil callan but i think hughes could maybe ride this better than dobbs did the last few times. she likes good ground, and Id rather go for the value.

[jayalexander]

Re: BBOTD 25th of September 2:30 Epsom - Hint of Mint Andrew Balding has a fantastic 43% win rate with 2yo's at this track over the past 5 seasons (6 in 14), and overall has a better record here than the other trainers who send their charges out in this race. Only Hannon can stand up to him when analysing wins in the past two weeks, which is an obvious threat. However, at the price available in such a small field, it's impossible for me to turn down. Hint of Mint has been out twice and improved dramatically on his second outing, so there may be more to come. What is a bit unusual for me is that this is a conditions race that is two classes higher than the maiden that the colt last raced in, although that could be a testament to Balding's confidence in him. It's Liam Keniry's only ride for the day, too :ok 20/1 win - vcbet (bog)

[Bathtime For Rupert]

Re: BBOTD 25th of September Sorry about this but not much time and very keen on her today: 3.10 Curragh - 1pt win Remember Alexander @ 5/1 (PP) The ground has come for her today and even though she couldn't challenge Maybe last time out, that run has worked out well with the winner winning since and Lightening Pearl (3rd) scoring at Newmarket. I think she has conditions perfect today and looks sure to be involved in the finish. Should be just about favourite in my book.

[Stevet1859]

Re: BBOTD 25th of September 4:45 Epsom: Perilously Each way 14/1 Sportingbet Something of a stop start career with not a whole lot to have any confidence in, yet it could be that this filly is a fair bit better than she has shown so far. The run at Kempton was better than it looked and if Perilously can build on that she could be in the shake up.

[cpo]

Re: BBOTD 25th of September 2.40 Curragh Simla Sunset win 33/1 Bet365 Faced a very tough task last time out in a class 1 handicap but this should be much more to his liking. He often runs well at the Curragh and he likes big fields. He may be slightly high in the weights here with CD Hayes taking over from an apprentice but he could run well at a big price at a track which front runners do well at.

[cc75]

Re: BBOTD 25th of September 4.30 Musselburgh: Climaxfortackle 1pt win @ 25/1 VC Bet Has it to do on paper here having been well beaten by Imaginary World LTO at Pontefract, however i'm not convinced that was the horses true running given the far better previous form it had shown. 3 starts back won from a mark only 5lbs lower than today on the AW before running very well on penultimate start at Epsom when a good second. Only two pounds higher today and running with a featherweight on it's back could run quite a bit better than the price available if able to put that bad LTO run behind it.

[wizzkid walter]

Re: BBOTD 25th of September 4:20 Curragh - Akeed Mofeed - Back A slightly increased stake here but only because he looked a bit special lto and looked to be headed for the top of this game. He hammered the odds on favourite Argens by 5 lengths despite being eased in the last half furlong and have the distinct impression that he is a classy horse. He may well improve again having only had 2 runs and if that's the case then the rest will have a job on up beat him here 3pt win @ 4/6 Bet365 BOG

[wizzkid walter]

Re: BBOTD 25th of September Obviously that was meant to be a 1pt win!

[Aidymac]

Re: BBOTD 25th of September

Blue Dahlia - Curragh 2:40 I hate when im torn between 2 horses, i am torn between Blue Dahlia and Maarek but i have stuck to my guns and gone for Blue Dahlia.. Blue Dahlia beat Just For Mary by a short-head last time out over 5f and now tackling the 6f tomorrow will be more suitable, even though it is up 5 pounds. It is proven on the course and over the distance with 2 C+D wins already. it is 3/7 at the track, 2/9 over the distance, but interestingly is 2/2 on soft going and the jockey is 1/2, so has everything in its favour tomorrow. Competitive race but im hoping this one can do the business and i think is a nice price. Maarek was the one i thought would be the danger , coming 4th to Cheveton in the big race at Ayr recently. WIN @ 14/1 Hills BOG

And Maarek had to go and win!!! :wall:wall:wall Was 12/1 last night and all... :wall

[Tedthewolf]

Re: BBOTD 25th of September

And Maarek had to go and win!!! :wall:wall:wall Was 12/1 last night and all... :wall

Don't want you to feel worse but was available at 16's last night and this morn Aidy. Nice call Fin:ok

[Aidymac]

Re: BBOTD 25th of September

Don't want you to feel worse but was available at 16's last night and this morn Aidy. Nice call Fin:ok

:puke:puke:puke I had Maarek as my main pick as i had brought in a rule not to back a horse that has won last time out! Daft Aidy changed that rule half an hour after he made it and went for the other horse.. Ah well, at least its good to know my analysis of races arent too bad lately, when i picked Premio Loco and it was 2nd i had Ransom Note as the danger and Ransom Note won and now this... :lol

[Falbrav]

Re: BBOTD 25th of September CORNUS 3.55 Musselburgh. 0.5 points each way. Needs a bot of coaxing these days, but this 7f trip could be ideal today. Handicapper gives him a chance and the race isn't the strongest, so if all drops right he should be more than capable of going close. 14/1 Ladbrokes BOG

[Verisimilitude]

Re: BBOTD 25th of September Epsom Salts 4.10 Epsom. 0.5 points each way. Hard to win with, but I like the fact the cheek-pieces go on, which I feel can bring a couple of pound improvement, so with the trip and ground in his favour and the weights, I can see him going very close. 8/1 Ladbrokes (bog)

[Burnley Joe]

Re: BBOTD 25th of September

2.40 curragh Maarek - posted a career best when fourth in Silver Cup at Ayr last Saturday and has gone well at the Curragh in the past. 16/1 b365, 1 pt win

:clap:clap:clap Got it at 11/1

[Aidymac]

Re: BBOTD 25th of September

2.40 curragh Maarek - posted a career best when fourth in Silver Cup at Ayr last Saturday and has gone well at the Curragh in the past. 16/1 b365, 1 pt win

Super Nap mate! :ok