Flat Racing - September 16th

[StuSimmy]

17:30 Newbury First write-up in a while but had a bit of spare time to relax and study the cards tomorrow. My bet comes from this listed race where 7 runners go to post. Beacon Lodge is my selection, I believe she is a group horse running at listed level today and her form does back that up with a very good place strike rate in group company. She is also the only winner of a group race that lines up today. It's fair to say she has had excuses in some of those races with the ground not being in her favour and she should get her preferred ground today which I believe to be good to soft. Her record at listed level reads 47141 and again two of those poorer efforts were in good to firm ground and both those wins came over today's trip of 7 furlongs so it could also be argued that she didn't get her ideal trip in the races she didn't place/win in. She boasts a 40% SR and 80% place strike rate over today's trip of7 furlongs. She is the highest rated horse in the race which is another positive for me, especially considering that are no unexposed types in the race. She is a previous course and distance winner and was also second over CD in a group 2 race last month. Win Beacon Lodge @ 15/8

[Bathtime For Rupert]

Re: Flat Racing - September 16th 3.55 Ayr - 2pts e/w Layla's Hero @ 9/1 (Hills) - BOG Naturally this Bronze Cup is wide open, but Layla's Hero looks well handicapped now his career looks set to return to the 6f races. 5 of his 6 career wins have come over this trip (other 5f) including 3 soft ground successes. His mark shot up to a mark of 104 having won 5 from 7 in 2009, and this mark meant it was difficult to cut ice in handicaps since. He was also campaigned mainly over further but now his mark has come back down, he looks well capable of landing this competitive event. He came back to form when a close 3rd at Redcar over 7f under today's rider, and confirmed he was back in business when winning decisively at Newcastle under similar conditions to today. Jamie Spencer was confident in the saddle before delivering a strong effort to win with plenty to spare. He won by 1 1/4l and runs off just 5lbs higher today. He's well up to winning again so long as he's positioned on the right part of the track. He previously won a 6f handicap by 4 1/2l (race worth 15k to the winner) off a mark of 83 so it's pretty concrete that he's capable of winning off 85 today. His new yard have rejuvenated him and can give John Quinn a good winner today.