BBOTD Tuesday 30th August

[Lars]

15:00 Ripon The current price of ALMOND BRANCHES is nigh on ridiculous and I feel it’s worth a maximum bet in what I think is quite a poor contest. The George Moore trained 2yo is quite experienced compared to some of her rivals having had six starts to date. After showing promise on her first three starts in maidens, she got off the mark at Catterick over the minimum trip. It took her an absolute age to get going and the sharp track there obviously wasn’t ideal but she showed massive heart to get in front in the dying strides. The form of that race has been well and truly franked with the winner now rated 97. Although not form to be taken too literally, it showed how decent a performance it actually was. She’s had two starts in nurseries since after being allotted a mark of 77. One was in a competitive big field nursery at York where she ran with credit, while her latest effort is the one of big interest. She was well-backed (11/1 into 6/1) but was outpaced over the 5f which was run at a brisk pace. She stuck on well at the end mind and it screams out that she should improve bundles for a step up to 6f. Another horse in that race which finished in similar fashion to Almond Branches (but just behind) also made a winning step up to 6f on his next start which bodes well. She’s looked in need of a step up in trip in all her recent starts, even when she won over 5f so this trip will very likely be ideal. It’s only a six runner race so it’s easy to talk about all her rivals. Lord Buffhead has a fair bit to do from out the handicap and may also want softer ground than he’ll get (drying all the time). Annie Walker was allotted a fairly low mark for such a resounding success last time. However she beat nothing that day and the step back in trip looks an odd move, especially on quite a sharp track like Ripon. Her yard is also in quite poor form. Blue Shoes landed a maiden last time and has the assistance again of Paul Hanagan, she’s entitled to run her race but I’m not sure how much progression there is to come from her. The slow time of Class Monitors last race puts a downer on what could have been quite good form. The step up in trip also may not derive as much improvement as from some of the others. Finally there is Tell Dad who’s probably the classiest of the runners. He’s on too high a mark for me though even with a 3lb claimer on board and he ran so poorly on his only try with some cut in the ground. As stated I’m really hopeful for ALMOND BRANCHES chance today. She should handle soft ground if it comes up that way (Dutch Art first crop have a 33% strike-rate on good to soft) and if it doesn’t she’s hardly going to be inconvenienced. She’s bred to enjoy the step up in trip and on running style, it looks warranted. George Moore is in good form as of late with a 3/10 strike rate in the past two weeks and has been dropped 3lbs from her last start too; which gives her a huge chance of getting in front for the second time. I thought she’d be around a 7/2 chance today, so seeing 8/1 really made me have a second look. Quite frankly I’m not too impressed with most of her rivals and apart from if any have made some serious improvements at home since last running, Almond Branches should take all the beating. ALMOND BRANCHES; Win @ 8/1 Bet365 (bog)

[cpo]

Re: BBOTD Tuesday 30th August 4.10 Ripon Mirrored 14/1 e/w William Hill Mirrored looks to have a good chance now returned to this trip and back off a mark of 85. This horse won a competitive handicap off this mark when returning to action this year at Doncaster. He hasn't ran too badly since then but his mark has gradually fallen back to 85 and should be able to get involved here. Last time out York off this mark, he will have found the trip against him. Today's conditions should suit and hopefully he will run a nice race.