MaxShalamar Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 Can you get better value on an event that has only two possible results rather than the old home, away, draw options? Can you make a profit by just backing in these markets (odd/even goals, baseball/basketball moneyline etc) where you can get odds of between 1.85 and 1.91 Surely backing an even chance at 1.85 is a lot easier than backing a home win at 1.85 (50% easier?) I know that backing an even chance at 1.85 is not really value for money but could it work with the right staking plan? Not talking Martingale her but something more complex Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Donkson Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 Re: Binary Betting You'll be backing more winners than if you bet on the 1X2 markets that's for sure, therefore your variance will be smaller. I'm not really sure about the 'value' part of your question. I don't think the market matters when determining where you will find value. If you have 10% edge in a market it doesn't matter what the market is, or the price you're getting it on, it's still 10% value. But as I mentioned earlier, if the variance is smaller in a handicap market, then yes that should be your choice. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MaxShalamar Posted August 24, 2011 Author Share Posted August 24, 2011 Re: Binary Betting You'll be backing more winners than if you bet on the 1X2 markets that's for sure, therefore your variance will be smaller. Not sure how you work that out Surely you would pick more winners at 1.85 in a two outcome market than in a three outcome one? 1.85 v 1.85 1.85 v 3.25 v 4.00 Or am I missing something? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mulkis Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 Re: Binary Betting Comon guys, 1.85 is anyway around 54% probability. It doesnt matter is it a "binary", "trinari" or whatever market. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maybe Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 Re: Binary Betting Hi MaxShalamar If you are asking whether it is "safer" in some way to bet on a 1.85 in a ' two outcome ' sport, such as tennis than it is to bet on a 1.85 in a 'three-outcome' game , such as football, then the answer is NO. The reason why, is because the bookies will have accounted for the fact that there are only two outcomes in a tennis game when they are offering that particular price for a tennis game. If a bookie gives 1.85 in a tennis game, he does so knowing about the other possibility and knowing that the game cannot be drawn. If a bookie gives 1.85 in a footy game, he does so knowing that there are THREE outcomes in a footy game. Hope this helps. If I have misunderstood your question, just ignore me. A 1.85 is no more safer in a two outcome game than a three outcome game. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Donkson Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 Re: Binary Betting Not sure how you work that out Surely you would pick more winners at 1.85 in a two outcome market than in a three outcome one? 1.85 v 1.85 1.85 v 3.25 v 4.00 Or am I missing something? First of all this market would never happen. If you have a market at 2.50 - 3.40 - 2.90 you have 3 fairly even outcomes to choose from, if you choose them randomly you'll hit 30ish percent. If the AH market was for the same game you might have Team 1 -0.5 @ 2.15 and Team 2 +0.5 @ 1.80, and choosing randomly should have you around 50%. So yes you are missing something. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
v-zero Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 Re: Binary Betting Anybody even giving a moment of thought to this thread needs to take all of their funds from their betting accounts and stop betting until they have a good understanding of rudimentary statistics and probability theory. Seriously. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shy10ck Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 Re: Binary Betting Anybody even giving a moment of thought to this thread needs to take all of their funds from their betting accounts and stop betting until they have a good understanding of rudimentary statistics and probability theory. Seriously. "Can you get better value on an event that has only two possible results rather than the old home, away, draw options?" I think it is an interesting question and in this case the answer is NO. But if the question is asked reverse. Is there better value if there are more than two possible results? I think the answer should be YES. Worth a thought. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
v-zero Posted August 27, 2011 Share Posted August 27, 2011 Re: Binary Betting "Can you get better value on an event that has only two possible results rather than the old home, away, draw options?" I think it is an interesting question and in this case the answer is NO. But if the question is asked reverse. Is there better value if there are more than two possible results? I think the answer should be YES. Worth a thought. Nope. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shy10ck Posted August 28, 2011 Share Posted August 28, 2011 Re: Binary Betting Nope. Up to you what you will spend a thought on, but IMO it is pure logic, that the more estimations the bookies have to make to set the odds, for a match or an event, the more room there is for them to make mistakes, ... and thereby value to us. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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