Here Now And Why

[jayalexander]

http://www.racingpost.com/horses/horse_home.sd?race_id=537144&r_date=2011-08-22&horse_id=728775#topHorseTabs=horse_race_record&bottomHorseTabs=horse_form Just attempting to understand a few handicap related issues... The RP Spotlight verdict stated that this 4yo was interestingly handicapped, so I took a look back at his record and he was awarded a rating of 88 as a 2yo after competing in a Gp2 & 3. No further wins until today at a rating of 48. He'd been competing in Ireland as a 3yo and had recently came back and competed in a couple of cl6; today was cl5. Does this give us a clue that the gelding has more ability than his handicap mark suggests and will probably go on to notch a few more wins until the handicapper catches up with him? I've probably just answered my own question with this, but wondered what some of the wise heads on here thought?

[Cowan]

Re: Here Now And Why I'd say it was tried in those G2 events when unexposed because connections were over-enthusiastic about it. It hasnt done that well in those races in terms of speed but the handicapper has gone 'Grade 2 eh, you'll have a mark of 88 my son". Reality has been the mark was way too high for the poor animal and now its spent its career working it down to a reasonable level bit by bit - happens all the time and ruins horses. The fact is that now its so used to seeing animals run infront of it as its been developing that it now thinks a race is where you play with the other horses. It has no idea about winning anymore and I'd be surprised to see it win unless a significant change is made eg operations, new trainer, visor, companion pony or something. Another factor with this one is the 2/3yo vs 4/5yo syndrome where a horse is harder trained and probably more developed at a young age so it beats its developing youngster rivals. But as its rivals mature our horse does not - he was just a big ox as a 2yo and that isnt enough to win anymore. Avoid like the plague.