Simon Trumper Posted August 14, 2011 Share Posted August 14, 2011 Hi All We have now run 12 online Day 1 flights with 67 qualifying for day 2. We have also run 3 live flights with 45 qualifying for day 2. If this trend continues we have 12 remaining online flights = 67 We have 7 remaining live flights = 105 Total through to Day 2 would be 284. Shortfall 216 = overlay €108,000 Even with an expected uplift during the week i am expecting the minimum overlay to be €75,000. To put this in perspective, to hit the guarantee we would need 350 players each flight at the club with a 50% re entry to break even. Here are the numbers bought in so far for each one. Tonight : 20 Monday : 25 Tuesday : 28 Wednesday : 14 Thursday : 25 Friday 12pm : 37 Friday 7pm : 49 This is one event you really should be playing. http://www.dusktilldawnpokerclub.com/events/grand-prix Cheers ACES PS: I will update this thread on a daily basis for the value hunters out there Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
teaulc Posted August 14, 2011 Share Posted August 14, 2011 Re: €108,000 overlay projected for Grand Prix !! fingers crossed for wednesday night for me then, 2 pl`ers down and out so far and Morls was very unlucky last night when his AQ got beat by A/10, didnt see Washy`s game. thanks for the updates Simon, they are much appreciated even if we don`t always reply :ok Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Simon Trumper Posted August 14, 2011 Author Share Posted August 14, 2011 Re: €119,500 overlay projected for Grand Prix !! Here are the results for Sundays live and online flights. Club produced 21 and online 8. This gives us a total of 128 and a projected total of 261. The overlay has increased to €119,500 Cheers ACES Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Simon Trumper Posted August 16, 2011 Author Share Posted August 16, 2011 Re: €112,500 overlay projected for Grand Prix !! Here are the results for Mondays live and online flights. Club produced 12 and online 14. This gives us a total of 154 and a projected total of 275. The overlay has decreased to €112,500 Some points to consider... Based on 275 players first prize will be approx €60,000, to put this in perspective this is equivalent to a 1200 - 1 return ! Even if you have 3 entries it will be 400 - 1. If you play a £1000 comp with 150 players you will get a return of 50 -1, even our £300 Deepstack is " only " 100 -1 . Some players have been saying they only want to have 1 or 2 entries as min cash is €75, our payout structure ladders from 1.5 increasing in 0.5 increments to 19th then top 18 get %ages, by the time 10 - 15% of the fiield are out min payout will already be €125. Had we hit the guarantee, you would have had to beaten 499 players to get a huge return, now it will be far less and the payout increments will increase quicker. And finally, one player wriote to me asking if he didn't turn up for Day 2 where would he finish. As we are using our Deeptack structure 15,000 chips 45 min clock i know we have 17% of the field after 12 levels, i have calculated a dead stack would blind away by level 10 when approx 70% of the field will be out, even with 500 players i would expect 150th to pay €350.I would prefer not to have too many dead stacks but if you genuinely can't make it, it is still worth investing €120 for a guaranteed return, those that can get here, even if you are travelling 200 miles it is worth it for a shot at €60,000 and the ones that come will have less players to beat. Please, if you agree with the points above spread the word and help me reduce the guarantee to a respectable €50,000. Cheers ACES Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Simon Trumper Posted August 16, 2011 Author Share Posted August 16, 2011 Re: €99,500, overlay projected for Grand Prix !! Hi All Things are starting to pick up a little ! Here are the results for Tuesdays live and online flights. Club produced 18 and online 19. This gives us a total of 191 and a projected total of 301. The overlay has decreased to only €99,500 We ran a 3pm online flight that produced 2 seats so have extended online flights to run from 12pm tomorrow. Now you can qualify at a time to suit you. We did not consider cancelling the tournament, we did not consider lowering the guarantee, we would never allow direct entry to Day 2, everyone has to play a Day 1 live or online, thanks for all the comments on this thread so far whether it was a complaint, praise or suggestion, we always value your opinions. What is the over / under on €50,000 overlay ? Cheers ACES Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Simon Trumper Posted August 17, 2011 Author Share Posted August 17, 2011 Re: €78,500 overlay projected for Grand Prix !! Hi All Here are the results for Wednesdays live and online flights. The club has slowed up but the online has done better. Club produced 15 and online so far today 27. This gives us a total of 233 and a projected total of 343. The overlay has decreased to €78,500 It seems that the travelling player has chose as we expected to play online, our only hope of reducing the guarantee any further is we have a last minute rush both live and online on Friday. To facilitate this we are adding a 3rd Day 1 flight at 3.30pm in the hope that with 3 start times there will be at least one that appeals to everyone who hasn't yet played or is willing to give it one more shot. We really do appreciate everyone that has been supporting Dusk Till Dawn by playing and multi entering or helping to spread the news about the value even after qualifying for day 2. Ultimately i don't think there is anything wrong with the concept but it will be interesting to see what the final unique player number is and whether it is higher than the 1564 of the last Grand Prix, for this to work ideally we needed a minimum of 2000 players and it would appear regardless of the €250,000 guarantee we already had found the max player pool as this level of buy in. Cheers ACES Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Simon Trumper Posted August 19, 2011 Author Share Posted August 19, 2011 €72,000 overlay projected for Grand Prix !! Hi All Here are the results for Thuesdays live and online flights. The club has picked up but the online has leveled out. Club produced 20 and online so far today 26. This gives us a total of 269 and a projected total of 356. The overlay has decreased to €72,000 It is all down to tomorrow, if we have an uplift in the club we may get the overlay dwon to €60,000 ! There are 3 flights left at 12pm, 3.30pm and 7pm, we are expecting 150 in the 12pm and 200 in the 7pm, no idea what the 3.30pm will get. Online there will be Day 1's every 30 minutes until 11am Saturday morning. Cheers ACES Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Simon Trumper Posted August 19, 2011 Author Share Posted August 19, 2011 Overlay sticking at €70,000, last chance today, don't miss out !! Hi All Final chances to qualify for Day 2 of the Grand Prix. The 12pm flight had a poor turn out of 93, we were hoping for 150, the 3.30pm has 67 and the 7pm has just 85 bought in so far but we expect at least 180. The crossover of players from the 12pm to 3.30pm has been good so we are adding a last chance live Day 1 at 10.30pm tonight for all the 7pm players that bust out after late reg at 10.15pm and want to have one last bullet. Online traffic has dried up, most are only getting 1 seat. The online Day 1's will run right through to 12pm tomorrow. We are projecting 360 players through to Day 2, this means we are effectively adding €70,000 to make up the €250,000 guaranteed prize pool ! First prize will be approx €52,500 and you will have far less players to beat to win it than the 500 we hoped for. Thanks again for your support, €70,000 is a big improvement on the €119,500 projected on Monday, it looks like we definitely got our sums wrong with the guarantee and number of players available to play it so for all those that make it into the money tomorrow it will be very exciting to move up the payout throughout the day and aim for the huge first prize, also don't forget all those with Golden Chips have a shot at winning an additional Mini or £15,000 if they finish in the final 8. Cheers ACES Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Join the conversation
You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.
Note: Your post will require moderator approval before it will be visible.