Shinigami Posted August 11, 2011 Share Posted August 11, 2011 This is a variation of an old racetrack bet system, loosely based on William Ziemba's (Dr. Z) "Beat the Racetrack" book. The Dr. Z system involves betting in the less efficient place and show pools using prices from the more accurate win pool. Likewise, this system involves betting in the less efficient Asian Handicap market using prices from the more accurate 1X2 standard odds market. i have back tested against a couple of leagues, and it has produced about 4% long term profits. I shall track the system's performance in this thread, and I have made the following bets today: Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zibbit Posted August 11, 2011 Share Posted August 11, 2011 Re: Asian Handicap Bet Method I am guessing your pick in HK-Selfoss is HK with handicap+1. Even so this is a guaranteed trashing for Selfoss. I saw HK play last week and they are total :pukewith zero confidence. Good luck though. I hope your KA pick doesn't win as Throttur is my team. I don't think they are losing. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shinigami Posted August 11, 2011 Author Share Posted August 11, 2011 Re: Asian Handicap Bet Method also betting these matches: Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
emired Posted August 11, 2011 Share Posted August 11, 2011 Re: Asian Handicap Bet Method I've often really thought the AH could be profitable on Betfair. It's a relatively new market for Betfair and often the prices seem incredibly generous. It's just a matter of figuring out how to take advantage of it :unsure Good luck anyway mate :ok Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shinigami Posted August 11, 2011 Author Share Posted August 11, 2011 Re: Asian Handicap Bet Method I am guessing your pick in HK-Selfoss is HK with handicap+1. Even so this is a guaranteed trashing for Selfoss. I saw HK play last week and they are total :pukewith zero confidence. Good luck though. I hope your KA pick doesn't win as Throttur is my team. I don't think they are losing. t's half-time now, & KA is leading 2-0 & HK is still 0-0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shinigami Posted August 11, 2011 Author Share Posted August 11, 2011 Re: Asian Handicap Bet Method Betting Slip Date (GMT) Bet Type Status Total Stake Returns 12120880-8 11 Aug 2011 14:27 Single (1 bet) Settled SGD 6.00 SGD 10.92 12120880-7 11 Aug 2011 14:27 Single (1 bet) Settled SGD 6.00 SGD 11.52 12120880-6 11 Aug 2011 14:27 Single (1 bet) Settled SGD 6.00 SGD 10.86 12120880-5 11 Aug 2011 14:27 Single (1 bet) Settled SGD 6.00 SGD 6.00 12120880-4 11 Aug 2011 14:27 Single (1 bet) Settled SGD 6.00 SGD 11.34 12120880-3 11 Aug 2011 14:27 Single (1 bet) Settled SGD 6.00 SGD 12.06 12120880-2 11 Aug 2011 14:27 Single (1 bet) Settled SGD 6.00 SGD 3.00 12120880-1 11 Aug 2011 14:27 Single (1 bet) Settled SGD 6.00 SGD 0.00 12120254-6 11 Aug 2011 03:16 Single (1 bet) Settled SGD 6.00 SGD 0.00 12120254-5 11 Aug 2011 03:16 Single (1 bet) Settled SGD 6.00 SGD 11.76 12120254-4 11 Aug 2011 03:16 Single (1 bet) Settled SGD 6.00 SGD 11.88 12120254-3 11 Aug 2011 03:16 Single (1 bet) Settled SGD 6.00 SGD 11.46 12120254-2 11 Aug 2011 03:16 Single (1 bet) Settled SGD 6.00 SGD 6.00 12120254-1 11 Aug 2011 03:16 Single (1 bet) Settled SGD 6.00 SGD 10.80 :gimme:nana:loon:ok Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shinigami Posted August 11, 2011 Author Share Posted August 11, 2011 Re: Asian Handicap Bet Method My next bets: Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shinigami Posted August 11, 2011 Author Share Posted August 11, 2011 Re: Asian Handicap Bet Method More bets: Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shinigami Posted August 11, 2011 Author Share Posted August 11, 2011 Re: Asian Handicap Bet Method even more bets: Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shinigami Posted August 11, 2011 Author Share Posted August 11, 2011 Re: Asian Handicap Bet Method some more bets: Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shinigami Posted August 11, 2011 Author Share Posted August 11, 2011 Re: Asian Handicap Bet Method more more bets: Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zibbit Posted August 12, 2011 Share Posted August 12, 2011 Re: Asian Handicap Bet Method t's half-time now' date=' & KA is leading 2-0 & HK is still 0-0[/quote'] Well I guess it's good for you I was wrong, you won money ;-) I still don't understand how Selfoss didn't put one past HK while Throttur put 3 past them and Selfoss is the 2nd best attacking team in the league. Just shows how unpredictable football can be. Well done, I wouldn't have done this well in my own local week this round but I am still doing well in Icelandic league, showing profit on it on my blogabet page. Will follow you with interest. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shinigami Posted August 12, 2011 Author Share Posted August 12, 2011 Re: Asian Handicap Bet Method I've often really thought the AH could be profitable on Betfair. It's a relatively new market for Betfair and often the prices seem incredibly generous. It's just a matter of figuring out how to take advantage of it :unsure Good luck anyway mate :ok i'm not sure about Betfair, but in terms of betting with bookies, the AH market is generally better for the customer. For example, a bet on the -0.5 is principally the same as a bet on a 1X2 straight win, but the former is actually worth several cents more in the odds. My guess is that 1X2 is a 3-Way market, of which its books are harder to balance, compared to 2-Way markets like AH, hi-lo, odd-even etc... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shinigami Posted August 12, 2011 Author Share Posted August 12, 2011 Re: Asian Handicap Bet Method Well I guess it's good for you I was wrong' date=' you won money ;-) I still don't understand how Selfoss didn't put one past HK while Throttur put 3 past them and Selfoss is the 2nd best attacking team in the league. Just shows how unpredictable football can be. Well done, I wouldn't have done this well in my own local week this round but I am still doing well in Icelandic league, showing profit on it on my blogabet page. Will follow you with interest.[/quote'] Thank you :) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shinigami Posted August 12, 2011 Author Share Posted August 12, 2011 Re: Asian Handicap Bet Method My next bets: Betting Slip Date (GMT) Bet Type Status Total Stake Returns 12121484-10 11 Aug 2011 22:07 Single (1 bet) Settled SGD 6.50 SGD 0.00 12121484-9 11 Aug 2011 22:07 Single (1 bet) Settled SGD 6.50 SGD 0.00 12121484-8 11 Aug 2011 22:07 Single (1 bet) Settled SGD 6.50 SGD 9.06 12121484-7 11 Aug 2011 22:07 Single (1 bet) Settled SGD 6.50 SGD 0.00 12121484-6 11 Aug 2011 22:07 Single (1 bet) Settled SGD 6.50 SGD 0.00 12121484-5 11 Aug 2011 22:07 Single (1 bet) Settled SGD 6.50 SGD 11.57 12121484-4 11 Aug 2011 22:07 Single (1 bet) Settled SGD 6.50 SGD 6.50 12121484-3 11 Aug 2011 22:07 Single (1 bet) Settled SGD 6.50 SGD 0.00 12121484-2 11 Aug 2011 22:07 Single (1 bet) Settled SGD 6.50 SGD 0.00 12121484-1 11 Aug 2011 22:07 Single (1 bet) Settled SGD 6.50 SGD 0.00 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shinigami Posted August 12, 2011 Author Share Posted August 12, 2011 Re: Asian Handicap Bet Method More bets: Betting Slip Date (GMT) Bet Type Status Total Stake Returns 12121488-10 11 Aug 2011 22:22 Single (1 bet) Settled SGD 6.50 SGD 14.17 12121488-9 11 Aug 2011 22:22 Single (1 bet) Settled SGD 6.50 SGD 0.00 12121488-8 11 Aug 2011 22:22 Single (1 bet) Settled SGD 6.50 SGD 12.09 12121488-7 11 Aug 2011 22:22 Single (1 bet) Settled SGD 6.50 SGD 12.15 12121488-6 11 Aug 2011 22:22 Single (1 bet) Settled SGD 6.50 SGD 10.79 12121488-5 11 Aug 2011 22:22 Single (1 bet) Settled SGD 6.50 SGD 0.00 12121488-4 11 Aug 2011 22:22 Single (1 bet) Settled SGD 6.50 SGD 12.02 12121488-3 11 Aug 2011 22:22 Single (1 bet) Settled SGD 6.50 SGD 12.74 12121488-2 11 Aug 2011 22:22 Single (1 bet) Settled SGD 6.50 SGD 0.00 12121488-1 11 Aug 2011 22:22 Single (1 bet) Settled SGD 6.50 SGD 0.00 :nana:loon:ok:clap Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shinigami Posted August 12, 2011 Author Share Posted August 12, 2011 Re: Asian Handicap Bet Method even more bets: 12121493-10 11 Aug 2011 22:32 Single (1 bet) Settled SGD 6.50 SGD 11.89 12121493-9 11 Aug 2011 22:32 Single (1 bet) Settled SGD 6.50 SGD 0.00 12121493-8 11 Aug 2011 22:32 Single (1 bet) Settled SGD 6.50 SGD 12.02 12121493-7 11 Aug 2011 22:32 Single (1 bet) Settled SGD 6.50 SGD 3.25 12121493-6 11 Aug 2011 22:32 Single (1 bet) Settled SGD 6.50 SGD 11.96 12121493-5 11 Aug 2011 22:32 Single (1 bet) Settled SGD 6.50 SGD 13.32 12121493-4 11 Aug 2011 22:32 Single (1 bet) Settled SGD 6.50 SGD 3.25 12121493-3 11 Aug 2011 22:32 Single (1 bet) Settled SGD 6.50 SGD 12.28 12121493-2 11 Aug 2011 22:32 Single (1 bet) Settled SGD 6.50 SGD 3.25 12121493-1 11 Aug 2011 22:32 Single (1 bet) Settled SGD 6.50 SGD 12.87 :clap:clap:clap Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shinigami Posted August 12, 2011 Author Share Posted August 12, 2011 Re: Asian Handicap Bet Method some more bets: 12121498-10 11 Aug 2011 22:42 Single (1 bet) Settled SGD 6.50 SGD 0.00 12121498-7 11 Aug 2011 22:42 Single (1 bet) Settled SGD 6.50 SGD 0.00 12121498-6 11 Aug 2011 22:42 Single (1 bet) Settled SGD 6.50 SGD 3.25 12121498-5 11 Aug 2011 22:42 Single (1 bet) Settled SGD 6.50 SGD 0.00 12121498-4 11 Aug 2011 22:42 Single (1 bet) Settled SGD 6.50 SGD 0.00 12121498-3 11 Aug 2011 22:42 Single (1 bet) Settled SGD 6.50 SGD 11.50 12121498-2 11 Aug 2011 22:42 Single (1 bet) Settled SGD 6.50 SGD 0.00 12121498-1 11 Aug 2011 22:42 Single (1 bet) Settled SGD 6.50 SGD 0.00 :wall:wall:wall Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shinigami Posted August 13, 2011 Author Share Posted August 13, 2011 Re: Asian Handicap Bet Method Starting with these bets for today: Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shinigami Posted August 13, 2011 Author Share Posted August 13, 2011 Re: Asian Handicap Bet Method next set of bets: Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shinigami Posted August 13, 2011 Author Share Posted August 13, 2011 Re: Asian Handicap Bet Method 3rd set of bets for today: Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shinigami Posted August 13, 2011 Author Share Posted August 13, 2011 Re: Asian Handicap Bet Method 4th set for today: Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shinigami Posted August 13, 2011 Author Share Posted August 13, 2011 Re: Asian Handicap Bet Method i've just opened an account with Bet365 because they offer slightly better odds.. So here are my bets for BPL & ELC: Bet Details Date/Time Stake Return Watford-0.5 @ 2.00 6.00 SGD Single 13/08/2011 17:42:29 6.00 0.00 Birmingham-0.5,-1.0 @ 2.05 6.00 SGD Single 13/08/2011 17:42:29 6.00 0.00 Portsmouth0.0,-0.5 @ 2.10 6.00 SGD Single 13/08/2011 17:42:29 6.00 0.00 Reading+0.5 @ 2.025 6.00 SGD Single 13/08/2011 17:42:29 6.00 0.00 Millwall0.0 @ 1.775 6.00 SGD Single 13/08/2011 17:42:29 6.00 0.00 Hull+0.5 @ 1.85 6.00 SGD Single 13/08/2011 17:42:29 6.00 0.00 Burnley0.0 @ 1.85 6.00 SGD Single 13/08/2011 17:42:29 6.00 0.00 West Ham-0.5 @ 1.85 6.00 SGD Single 13/08/2011 17:42:29 6.00 0.00 Newcastle+0.5 @ 1.825 6.00 SGD Single 13/08/2011 17:42:29 6.00 0.00 Wolverhampton0.0,+0.5 @ 2.00 6.00 SGD Single 13/08/2011 17:42:29 6.00 0.00 Fulham-0.5 @ 1.975 6.00 SGD Single 13/08/2011 17:42:29 6.00 0.00 Liverpool-1.0,-1.5 @ 2.075 6.00 SGD Single 13/08/2011 17:42:29 6.00 0.00 QPR0.0,-0.5 @ 1.925 6.00 SGD Single 13/08/2011 17:42:29 6.00 0.00 Norwich0.0,+0.5 @ 1.95 6.00 SGD Single 13/08/2011 17:42:29 6.00 0.00 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shinigami Posted August 13, 2011 Author Share Posted August 13, 2011 Re: Asian Handicap Bet Method hhmm... i guess this thread doesn't garner much interest from the PL public... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
munchy47 Posted August 13, 2011 Share Posted August 13, 2011 Re: Asian Handicap Bet Method hi great thread av just started following keep up the good work Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
inchicore_saint Posted August 21, 2011 Share Posted August 21, 2011 Re: Asian Handicap Bet Method Im looking into the Asian Handicap betting and found that the -1.5 would be the best bet but all the bookies I have looked at dont seem to do it. Take the Chelsea vs West Brom match yesterday which Chelsea won 2-1 but most people and the bookies expected them to hammer West Brom so Im looking for an Asian handicap bet that meant I would have won as West Brom lost by just one goal. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ofcourseitwas Posted August 21, 2011 Share Posted August 21, 2011 Re: Asian Handicap Bet Method Hi Shini, I think you would find more interest from the community if you would keep a running number of picks, yield, etc. below each posting. :ok Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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