Yet Another Value Hunt -2011/2012 Season

[garyfinny]

OK, inspired by the gambling addiction thread I'm going to post my own picks. Gambling-wise, my records are a bit of a mess. I had one seperate bank account and card for gambling purpose and all the transactions have gone up on there. I've been a good player on the 'free bets and promos' market; I reckon I've been easily £200+ a month on there, so I have no idea how well actual betting is going. My own suspicions are that I am close to break even on this. I suffered from the odd lapse in discipline, for instance, betting in play, betting on other people's bets rather than my own, chasing losses. Some terrible beatings which has eaten into the profits. By doing it this way, I can only bet on what I write. Mainly I will cover the English leagues but perhaps other leagues too if I can read enough information. This will prevent many of the indisciplined, betting 'blind' bets and also prevent chasing losses (since no bets are traded out). System relies on value, based on my own ratings. As well, I believe that if all the singles are value, the subsequent accumulator will be value as well. To this end, I will be taking advantage of any accumulator offers: for example, Betfair usually ran a four-fold (get 50-100% money back if 1 leg loses); VC do the same for a 5-fold, but often there are not enough good results for this. Bank starts at 100pts, each bet is 1% of bank stretching to 2% after some early season form is established, except for the accumulator bets which will be to the maximum allowed for refund. First picks I already put here: http://forum.punterslounge.com/f6/england-carling-cup-aug-9-11-a-119871/ LAY Wycombe 2.68 (liability 1pt) = 0.57pts BACK Preston 1.75 = 0.71pts LAY Hereford = -1pts LAY Accrington = 0.45pts Total = +0.73pts Bank = 100.73pts

[garyfinny]

Re: Yet Another Value Hunt -2011/2012 Season Only one game tommorow, Bristol Rovers v Torquay 1pt (2.06). Had considered a lay of Hartlepool against Walsall but I just decided not to go for it. Many of the other games are not easy to call at the start of the season. The first promo acca of the season is here: Gamebookers are offering a 20 GBP refund if your acca has Man Utd in and loses. I've gone for Man U, LAY Torquay, LAY Doncaster which pays out at 2.1. Accounting for the accas is not as easy to integrate into the main bank so I will account for them seperately.

[garyfinny]

Re: Yet Another Value Hunt -2011/2012 Season Poor, poor start, and doubly worse because the bet I was considering (Hartlepool lay) won and the ones I punted on lost! Bank stands at 99.73pts. For the Acca, I should get a refund for this, but I'm not posting this in the results before it's confirmed. What I usually do is back/lay on the bet to get money back into Betfair. I will try to use my football knowledge to take a small position on this, so a lay of the freebet will give me my stake back, but if this loses, I probably will be looking at a small loss, I will book that as it happens. At the moment I have taken some positions on Betfair, I will trade on Tuesday if there is significant reasons to get out. If I don't update, then no trading has taken place and I had let the bet ride. LAY Barnet v Gillingham 3.1- 1pt Liability LAY Crewe v Rotherham 2.7 - 1pt Liability LAY Oldham v Scunthorpe 5.2 - 1pt Liability LAY Derby v Blackpool 4.4 - 1pt Liability I think I'm going to for laying until about week 4/5 when there are a few more results to go on.

[garyfinny]

Re: Yet Another Value Hunt -2011/2012 Season Acca got refunded in the form of a free bet. I know this is after-eventing but I arbed it on a horse for no loss close to the off. For the uninitiated this is backing at the bookie and laying at Betfair. I didn't add in that stakes are not returned on this, which was an error. I got out of jail this time but in future there may be a couple of quids loss on this. Therefore, my record for the accas is P1 W0 D1 L0 = Money £0.00 (A draw is counted where the refund is made). I'm hopeful that several books may run these offers and as the season gets on I will have more picks. On tonights games the bets all stand apart from the Gillingham one, they are missing a few players. I had closed that bet, which gives a loss of -0.015 points.

[garyfinny]

Re: Yet Another Value Hunt -2011/2012 Season Bit of a disaster really. Again, the bet I scrubbed ended up winning, although it could be argued that Barnet played pretty well. 2 out of 3 losers which is pretty unacceptable for lay terms although I'm not as down as I would have been. These were expensive lays though and right at the top of the spectrum, I wouldn't lay above 5 in general. There is a lot of early season variance going around and I expect better results as we go on. In fact, the system would have scrubbed the Blackpool bet as well but I did not have any time to look into that, so that could be put down to error. Barnet = -0.015 Crewe +0.588 Scunthorpe = -1 Blackpool = -1 Loss = -1.427 pts Bank = 98.303pts

[garyfinny]

Re: Yet Another Value Hunt -2011/2012 Season Abroad and on iPod so canyt write much. Picks for tomorrow are mk dons, afc Wimbledon, charlton and gillingham all 1pt win singles.

[garyfinny]

Re: Yet Another Value Hunt -2011/2012 Season Injury time equalizer for Scunthorpe turned a profit into a loss. On the whole OK with the selections. The system did throw up some good aways (Crystal P, Crawley, Dagenham) but the signals are weaker than that for home, this is natural though and I think I will lower the criteria so I get a better balance. Most bets have been homes at under evens and in truth have been backs against a poorer side. Gillingham = +0.6855 MK = +0.714 Charlton = -1 AFC Wimb = -1 Total = -0.6005 Bank = 97.7025pts

[garyfinny]

Re: Yet Another Value Hunt -2011/2012 Season Already placed the bets on the cup games. There are some speculative lays on BSP games today, liability 0.5pts at this stage. Lay Barrow @ 4 Lay Grimsby @ 2.54 Lay Kidderminster @ 2.32 Lay Southport @ 3.2 Lay Telford @ 2.36

[garyfinny]

Re: Yet Another Value Hunt -2011/2012 Season Well, profit last night - at last. The annoying thing is had I kept my stakes to a level 0.5pts the profits would have been doubled, but I was quite cautious of the cup factor. The better thing is now is that the ratings will start to settle a bit after another round of games. Charlton = +0.4615 QPR = -1 Villa = +0.2625 Norwich = +1.571 West Brom = +0.4855 Lays: Barrow = -0.4995 (couldn't get exact 0.5pts on due to rounding) Grimbsy = -0.5125 Kidderminster = +0.3625 Southport = +0.216 Telford = +0.35 Total = +1.697 Bank = 99.3995pts

[garyfinny]

Re: Yet Another Value Hunt -2011/2012 Season Quick update. Only two more bets. Small loss overall, a little annoyed because the Asian HC was a marginal call, but I decided on it anyway. As I did mention at the time there was not enough data on Everton, perhaps this was a lapse. Asian HC -0.5pts Lay AQ = +0.2035pts Total = -0.2965 Bank = 99.103pts Here are the selections for the weekend: No write up as yet. Have to take some bets at Betclic because of the money in there. For the most part their odds are disgusting, but I am taking the most palatable ones. Stakes revert to 1pt this week. Middlesbrough 1.72 (Betclic) 1pt Wrexham 2.2 (Betclic) 1.0055pt MK Dons 1.8 (Betclic) 1pt Derby 2.5 (Betfair) 1pt Sheff U 2.24 (Betfair) 1pts Lay Leyton O 2.72 (Betfair) Liability 1pt Bristol R 1.65 (Betfair) 1pt Morecambe + 0.5 1.85 (Betfair) 1pt

[garyfinny]

Re: Yet Another Value Hunt -2011/2012 Season Day was profitable, but I still feel a little pain because it could have been better. Derby was always a risky bet, but Bristol Rovers really should have put Hereford away, and Middlesbrough should have done better. Results: Middlesbrough - 1pt Wrexham = +1.2065 MK Dons = +0.8 Derby = -1pt Sheff U = +1.1805 Leyton O = +0.553 Bristol R = -1 Morecambe = +0.809 Total = 1.549 Bank = 100.652 points Hasn't gone unnoticed that I have done a lot better on the aways than the homes. Don't know if there will any bets tommorow as I need to work out some stuff first.

[garyfinny]

Re: Yet Another Value Hunt -2011/2012 Season I have signals for some bets today but I am going to only stake a flat 0.25pts because the Prem season is so new. Man U - 1.5 (Ladbrokes) Fulham - Lay 3.7 Spurs - Lay 3.2 West Brom - Stoke - X 3.4

[garyfinny]

Re: Yet Another Value Hunt -2011/2012 Season Bottled the West Brom draw. Odds had moved down a tick so I can cancel that with no loss before kick-off. I actually favour Stoke a little on this one but I wouldn't like to risk money on it.

[garyfinny]

Re: Yet Another Value Hunt -2011/2012 Season Clean sweep but only on small stakes - pretty happy with swerving the West Brom game too. Man U = +0.125 Fulham = +0.095 Spurs = +0.1055 Total = 0.3255 Bank = 100.9775pts

[garyfinny]

Re: Yet Another Value Hunt -2011/2012 Season Forgot to update yesterday, here are bets I have taken on BSP today, all 1pt Betfair. York 1.5 Gateshead 1.9 Barrow DNB 2.00 These were the strongest signals but I accept I need 2/3 to come in, otherwise there will be loss. Weaker signals that I didn't take up but let's see how they go: Forest Green v Bath (Home) Newport v Kidderminster (Away) Tamworth v Telford (Home) Wrexham v Fleetwood (Home) Kettering v Cambridge (away)

[garyfinny]

Re: Yet Another Value Hunt -2011/2012 Season Cut Gateshead out - a lot of good sentiments regarding Grimsby and the outburst by Scott may have galvanised the team. They have actually not played too bad in the past two games and although my ratings favour Gateshead a little I ain't too confident on that. Although Grimsby have few points, they are creating chances and Gateshead may have their top scorer out. Odds have drifted and I have booked a 0.1pt loss on that game.

[garyfinny]

Re: Yet Another Value Hunt -2011/2012 Season Crap, crap. Both bets bombed leaving a bad loss for the day. Would have cut that if I kept the bet on Gateshead as Jon Shaw actually played and scored although it was another OK game by Grimsby. The other bets I didn't stake: Forest G (W), Kidderminster (W), Tamworth (L), Wrexham (W), Cambridge (L), probably would have made profit. Loss for the day was 2.1 pts, giving bank of 98.9775 pts. Picks for tonight: Leyton Orient LAY 2.14, 0.5pts liability Southampton 1.73 0.5pt (Betclic) Sheff U 1.97 0.5pt Exeter 1.75 0.5pt Huddersfield 1.98 0.5pt Luton 1.86 0.5pt Should be noted that there are no longer priced teams just as yet as we only have form this season to look into; mainly it is out of form teams against better form ones.

[garyfinny]

Re: Yet Another Value Hunt -2011/2012 Season 3 wins, 3 losses, but because of the under-evens natures of things, another loss. Leyton Orient -0.5pts Southampton +0.365pts Sheff U +0.461pts Exeter -0.5pts Huddersfield +0.466pts Luton -0.5pts Total -0.208pts Bank = 98.76956pts

[garyfinny]

Re: Yet Another Value Hunt -2011/2012 Season Taken Luton tonight at Stockport (2.1, 0.5pts), and already markers down for Sheff U (1.85) and Burton (1.76) both 1pt. Itching for some other action, so we may have some in-play trades as well.

[garyfinny]

Re: Yet Another Value Hunt -2011/2012 Season Watching Azerbaijan-Belgium, laid the homeside (1.2pts, 9.4), Belgium look threatening.

[garyfinny]

Re: Yet Another Value Hunt -2011/2012 Season Laid Belarus (1pt, 2.84). Bosnia looking good on the break while a draw would suit the home side.

[garyfinny]

Re: Yet Another Value Hunt -2011/2012 Season Stockport scored in the last minute to deny me some profits. The inplay was successful. Luton = =-0.5pts Belgium = +0.1425pts Belarus = +0.511pts Total = +0.1535 Bank = 98.9832pts Bets for today in addition to Sheff/Burton, some varied stakes because of the signal strength, all at Betfair today. Lay Carlisle 2.74 (0.5pt) Lay Rochdale 4.2 (0.5pt) Tranmere 1.94 (0.5pt) Lay Swindon 2.62 (0.75pts) Dagenham 2.46 (0.75pts) Gateshead 1.63 (0.5pts) New Feature: system signalling draws, I've taken the three best this week, so need one to come in for profit, flat 0.5pts stake Walsall X 3.5 Braintree X 3.75 Darlington X 3.45 Good luck all.

[garyfinny]

Re: Yet Another Value Hunt -2011/2012 Season Greened out on Burton. Plymouth strike has been averted. I think they'll still lose but I don't have much confidence in Burton.

[garyfinny]

Re: Yet Another Value Hunt -2011/2012 Season Mortified by the latest losses. I had to take a few days off. The draws system was especially galling as all the games were reasonably close, IMO the odds were a fair value bet. Results for the last round: Sheff U +0.8085 Burton + 0.07 (closed early) Carlisle -0.5 Rochdale + 0.1485 Swindon -0.75 Dagenham -0.75 Gateshead + 0.2995 Total = -0.6735 Bank: 98.3097pts The draws system lost 1.5pts, but I will account for this separately as an experiment. If I get to -5pts I will stop it.

[garyfinny]

Re: Yet Another Value Hunt -2011/2012 Season Early picks. I have 25 matches this week but will be slimming that down considerably. Some bets are with Bet770 this week. Odds are not good but having just received £200 freebet from them I am feeling more generous this time, and need to clear my wagering requirement. Preston (770) 1.55 - 0.5pt Southampton (770) 1.85 - 0.75pt West Ham (770) 1.65 -0.5pt Colchester (770) 1.80 - 0.5pt Draws: Cheltenham (770) 3.25 - 0.25pt Cambridge (770) 3.25 - 0.25pt Bournemouth (770) 3.4 - 0,25pt Notts C (770) 3.3 - 0.25pt

[garyfinny]

Re: Yet Another Value Hunt -2011/2012 Season Also taken Charlton (1.6) 1pt Sheff U (2.55) 0.75pt MK Dons (2.55) 0.75pt Gateshead (3.4) 0.75pt

[garyfinny]

Re: Yet Another Value Hunt -2011/2012 Season Results time. Missed the Tuesday round of matches because I was too busy to make selections, but it's clear that there are more losses: Preston: +0.275 Southampton +0.6375 West Ham + +0.325 Colchester -0.5 Charlton + 0.6 Sheff U - 0.75 Mk Dons -0.75 Total = -0.1625 Bank 98.1472pts Draws fared no better - 0.1875 giving a loss of -1.6875 on that system. I have analyzed some of the picks so far and it's plain to me that homes are performing much better than aways. From now on, any away matchup with have to be at odds of 3.0 or over, unless the match rating is sufficiently high enough.

[garyfinny]

Re: Yet Another Value Hunt -2011/2012 Season I have gone for it today. Clearing out some balances in other random bookies. Luton 1.40 (Betmotion) 2pts (odds are not as I would like but I feel sure of this game) Braintree 2.2 2pts Kidderminster 1.61 2pts Gateshead 1.78 2pts Morecambe 3.3 1pt (winfootball) Cheltenham 3 1pt Draws Mk dons 0.5pt (3.28) Accrington 0.5pt (3.34) Walsall 0.5pt (3.24)

[garyfinny]

Re: Yet Another Value Hunt -2011/2012 Season Good results today; Gateshead would have been the icing on the cake. The policy of not backing under 3.0 on the aways did help reduce the number of bets taken. Luton = +0.8 Braintree = +2.4pts Kidderminster = +1.22pts Gateshead = -2pts Morecambe = +2.3pts Cheltenham = -1pt Total = +3.72pts Bank = 101.8672pts Draws System Staked 1.5pts, Returns 3.26pts Profit 1.76pts, overall + 0.0725pts

[garyfinny]

Re: Yet Another Value Hunt -2011/2012 Season Bets for tonight as I'm out later. Will detail some near misses as well: Blackburn/Luton double (evens, 1.5pt, Winfootball): Both are very high on the ratings but as a single the odds aren't so hot. Aldershot: fancy an upset here but the odds are the wrong way around with the home side the favourites. No thanks. Shrewsbury: Odds not good enough. Handicap doesn't particularly appeal, despite all the problems Arsenal have been creating a lot. Man U: Not really possible to assess because of the largely different sides possible with the squad. A strong XI should really obliterate Leeds but wouldn't like put money with sides not known. Middlesborough: Big favourites for me, but odds are not good and Palace have another bite of the cherry having played them on Saturday just gone. Barrow: 1pts (3, Betfair) Braintree: Odds not above 3 Gateshead: Odds not above 3 Newport: Lay 2.42 (liability 0.75pt): Stockport are nice odds but their 0-4-0 record away worries me a bit. Fleetwood/Kiddy: 0.5pts for the draw. Mansfield (1.54, Betmotion, 1pt). Good luck, let's hope I don't give the profits straight back.