Mulkis Posted August 2, 2011 Share Posted August 2, 2011 New soccer season not so far away. So, just out of curiosity I've performed some basic test on how accurate different bookmakers are in their soccer odds for English Premier (2010/11 season, 380 matches). No surprise they are all quite accurate (closing odds on favorite). This is the results (bookmaker/result$/deviation%): VC -20.42 -0.0537 WH -21.50 -0.0566 SJ -22.46 -0.0591 B365 -25.11 -0.0661 LB -26.26 -0.0691 GB -26.68 -0.0702 IW -29.28 -0.0771 BW -32.76 -0.0862 SB -36.49 -0.0960 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Donkson Posted August 3, 2011 Share Posted August 3, 2011 Re: The most "accurate" bookmaker Pinnacle is widely regarded as the sharpest book. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mulkis Posted August 3, 2011 Author Share Posted August 3, 2011 Re: The most "accurate" bookmaker Pinnacle is widely regarded as the sharpest book. Yes, it is. I've tested Pinnacle on tennis and they outperform all others with 0.00% (yes, zero) deviation. Unfortunately I've no Pinnacle data on soccer to test. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shy10ck Posted August 3, 2011 Share Posted August 3, 2011 Re: The most "accurate" bookmaker How do you calculate the deviation? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mulkis Posted August 3, 2011 Author Share Posted August 3, 2011 Re: The most "accurate" bookmaker How do you calculate the deviation? Easy way: simulated 1$ flat stake betting on all favorites. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shy10ck Posted August 3, 2011 Share Posted August 3, 2011 Re: The most "accurate" bookmaker With or without the bookies overround?7 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mulkis Posted August 3, 2011 Author Share Posted August 3, 2011 Re: The most "accurate" bookmaker With or without the bookies overround?7 No account for overround is made. Odds are taken "as is". But effectively this "deviation" represents bookmaker' overround, although it is calculated in a different way. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stefan2008 Posted August 3, 2011 Share Posted August 3, 2011 Re: The most "accurate" bookmaker Same sample but this is derived from true probabilities: Pinnacle - (opening) 1.54, (closing) 11.52 188bet - 9.15 , 7.88 5dimes - 3.28 , 14.01 380 matches are not representative enough though Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mulkis Posted August 3, 2011 Author Share Posted August 3, 2011 Re: The most "accurate" bookmaker Same sample but this is derived from true probabilities: Pinnacle - (opening) 1.54, (closing) 11.52 188bet - 9.15 , 7.88 5dimes - 3.28 , 14.01 380 matches are not representative enough though Could you please elaborate on this? Not sure what I'm looking at... And yes 380 is not representative. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stefan2008 Posted August 4, 2011 Share Posted August 4, 2011 Re: The most "accurate" bookmaker No difference from your calculation, I just used the true (no vig) odds. First number = odds at opening were used, second number = odds at closing were used. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mulkis Posted August 4, 2011 Author Share Posted August 4, 2011 Re: The most "accurate" bookmaker No difference from your calculation, I just used the true (no vig) odds. But how do you come to those "true odds"???? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stefan2008 Posted August 4, 2011 Share Posted August 4, 2011 Re: The most "accurate" bookmaker It's very simple: 1=2.23, X=3.43, 2= 3.54 vig= 100/2.23+100/3.43+100/3.54 = 102.246 no vig 1 = 1/(100/2.23/102.246) = 2.28 (true odds) no vig x = 1/(100/3.43/102.246) = 3.507 no vig 2 = 1/(100/3.54/102.246) = 3.62 Ofc there are other ways to do this. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mulkis Posted August 4, 2011 Author Share Posted August 4, 2011 Re: The most "accurate" bookmaker Yes, but this approach assumes that bookmakers odds are effectively the very "true odds", just with overround included. And further it means that there is no space for "value". Do you really mean that Stefan? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stefan2008 Posted August 4, 2011 Share Posted August 4, 2011 Re: The most "accurate" bookmaker No, I don't mean that. No one knows true probabilities because they do not exist, so "true" in this context might be the wrong term. Conversion to no vig (true) odds is done just for the sake of accuracy. They are as true as possible from the bookmaker's point of view when it comes to opening, and as true as possible from the public's point of view from then on. Essentially, every line is accurate at every point in time (from opening to closing), just with different variances. Our sole job is to spot those variances. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mulkis Posted August 4, 2011 Author Share Posted August 4, 2011 Re: The most "accurate" bookmaker No, I don't mean that. No one knows true probabilities because they do not exist... Essentially, every line is accurate at every point in time (from opening to closing), just with different variances. Our sole job is to spot those variances. Good point:ok Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Smokin Joe Posted August 5, 2011 Share Posted August 5, 2011 Re: The most "accurate" bookmaker Same sample but this is derived from true probabilities: Pinnacle - (opening) 1.54, (closing) 11.52 188bet - 9.15 , 7.88 5dimes - 3.28 , 14.01 380 matches are not representative enough though So are you saying that the bookies opening lines are closer to the actual results than the closing lines? Is that what the second number being bigger than the first one means? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stefan2008 Posted August 5, 2011 Share Posted August 5, 2011 Re: The most "accurate" bookmaker So are you saying that the bookies opening lines are closer to the actual results than the closing lines? Is that what the second number being bigger than the first one means? Correct but as I said 380 is not enough. I believe closing line is more accurate in the long run. It's just speculation though as historical opening lines (in suitable format) are impossible to find on the net, at least from my experience. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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