mayfly Posted July 30, 2011 Share Posted July 30, 2011 Mathematics and Science are very strong words psychologically, there’s a sense of correctness in anything they are applied to. So in recent years the increase in people using them to better their lot can be seen everywhere, especially sports betting forums. The problem is though when success has not been achieved rather than go back to the drawing board these poor souls dig deeper in the academic pool for answers leading to a blind search for a holy grail of sorts, an alchemist’s equation. All this is well known to the psychologist as we Humans instinctively look for patterns in everything, even when there are none. The situation is compounded when the mind assumes that not enough data is the reason for failure and urges us to go further on our quest. The end result of all this can be seen in Baseball ( a game with the randomness of two dice being thrown ) where punter’s now use sabermetrics to the point where it has been moulded into another pastime, theorising betting as to actual betting. It was only a matter of time before some learned sufferer came up with Soccermetrics. People seem to confuse the use of Mathematics to find out how long a car takes to go 3 miles travelling 52 MPH and its use to estimate the probability of an event. Because randomness isn’t something that is etched into our minds it’s down played in favour of more certain facts leading us to a false impression of our chances. Instead of being happy with a range of probability like the bookmakers we constantly crave a utopian exactness which as I mentioned in another thread, is quickly forgotten if the outcome is incorrect. I have no doubts that by releasing yourself from the chains of exactness a different betting animal will emerge, one who has the confidence to sometimes take others conclusions over their own. This is why systems are a curse, you become no better than a jellyfish in the tides controlled purely by what your numbers spit out. And so on to the Draw in Soccer. Whenever I read posts asking for ways to calculate odds the majority appear to be concerned with the draw, which is a little ironic as most punters have no interest what so ever in betting it. Once again it’s the urge for exactness that fuels this impossible quest. As the draw is normally the least likely to be bet it acts like an asteroid dependent on what happens around it. Regardless of statistics or opinion if there is money for both teams the draw will drift as a consequence, if they are both drifters then the draw will automatically shorten. So just as in a solar eclipse it’s not enough knowing the position of the Moon, both Earth and Sun are in the mix. When you throw in the usual lack of updated information and fragile market forces its easy to see why predicting the odds of the draw is pointless. Nevertheless we mere mortals need some sort of strategy even in the face of such randomness and my own one is this. If your bet is anything other than a direct bet on the draw then the best way to assess your figures is to use the bookmakers odds for the draw, that way they are a better fit for the market you are betting into. As you can see on any odds comparison site the draw odds differ wildly, many bookmakers lazily leave the draw odds below the average and look at it as their earner, so it’s the bookmakers who actively look to lay the draw that you need to get the odds from, Pinnacle is a fair assessment. Remember that these odds will be relatively stable throughout the week until around Friday afternoon when generally the more solid information starts coming in, from there in anything can and does happen. Sadly I have no answer to help those betting the draw exclusively but to wish you luck, hopefully I’ve explained some of its randomness. What new punters or even more experienced punters need to remember is betting is very basic and not like some try to convey, similar to Stock Markets and derivative dealings.(As if they can get it right there) A simple but logical approach will do and if it doesn’t, complicating it certainly won’t, get back to the drawing board. I will end this post with a quote from Paul Krugman, the American Economist which although speaking about the use of Mathematical Physics by analysts on the World Stock markets, it certainly rings true of Sports betting Forums today. “It is cynical but true to say that in the academic world the theories that are most likely to attract a devoted following are those that best allow a clever but not very original man to demonstrate his cleverness†:ok Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bacardirum Posted July 30, 2011 Share Posted July 30, 2011 Re: DRAWING CONCLUSIONS No offence m8, but this is like your 5th thread or more in the strategy section and your still to do your bets, I know this on the '1st August', but you could have kept everything in the one place :unsure Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bacardirum Posted July 30, 2011 Share Posted July 30, 2011 Re: DRAWING CONCLUSIONS ** Makes it all bit easier for users to follow you and what you are doing also ;) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shy10ck Posted July 30, 2011 Share Posted July 30, 2011 Re: DRAWING CONCLUSIONS Great read :clap But I think you are moving onto dangerous ground if you just copy the bookmakers (Pinnacles) draw odds. That way you will, best case, end up with the same home/away probabilities as Pinnacle or ,worst case, get inaccurate home/away probabilities. Not a solid way to find value. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MPLouis Posted July 30, 2011 Share Posted July 30, 2011 Re: DRAWING CONCLUSIONS “It is cynical but true to say that in the academic world the theories that are most likely to attract a devoted following are those that best allow a clever but not very original man to demonstrate his cleverness†Ironic that you should choose that quote :lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
robkor Posted July 30, 2011 Share Posted July 30, 2011 Re: DRAWING CONCLUSIONS Thank you mayfly, you opend my eyes, not with this post but some of the earlier ones... but a good read anyway! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rimshot Posted July 30, 2011 Share Posted July 30, 2011 Re: DRAWING CONCLUSIONS Mathematics and Science are very strong words psychologically, there’s a sense of correctness in anything they are applied to. So in recent years the increase in people using them to better their lot can be seen everywhere, especially sports betting forums. The problem is though when success has not been achieved rather than go back to the drawing board these poor souls dig deeper in the academic pool for answers leading to a blind search for a holy grail of sorts, an alchemist’s equation. All this is well known to the psychologist as we Humans instinctively look for patterns in everything, even when there are none. The situation is compounded when the mind assumes that not enough data is the reason for failure and urges us to go further on our quest. The end result of all this can be seen in Baseball ( a game with the randomness of two dice being thrown ) where punter’s now use sabermetrics to the point where it has been moulded into another pastime, theorising betting as to actual betting. It was only a matter of time before some learned sufferer came up with Soccermetrics. People seem to confuse the use of Mathematics to find out how long a car takes to go 3 miles travelling 52 MPH and its use to estimate the probability of an event. Because randomness isn’t something that is etched into our minds it’s down played in favour of more certain facts leading us to a false impression of our chances. Instead of being happy with a range of probability like the bookmakers we constantly crave a utopian exactness which as I mentioned in another thread, is quickly forgotten if the outcome is incorrect. I have no doubts that by releasing yourself from the chains of exactness a different betting animal will emerge, one who has the confidence to sometimes take others conclusions over their own. This is why systems are a curse, you become no better than a jellyfish in the tides controlled purely by what your numbers spit out. And so on to the Draw in Soccer. Whenever I read posts asking for ways to calculate odds the majority appear to be concerned with the draw, which is a little ironic as most punters have no interest what so ever in betting it. Once again it’s the urge for exactness that fuels this impossible quest. As the draw is normally the least likely to be bet it acts like an asteroid dependent on what happens around it. Regardless of statistics or opinion if there is money for both teams the draw will drift as a consequence, if they are both drifters then the draw will automatically shorten. So just as in a solar eclipse it’s not enough knowing the position of the Moon, both Earth and Sun are in the mix. When you throw in the usual lack of updated information and fragile market forces its easy to see why predicting the odds of the draw is pointless. Nevertheless we mere mortals need some sort of strategy even in the face of such randomness and my own one is this. If your bet is anything other than a direct bet on the draw then the best way to assess your figures is to use the bookmakers odds for the draw, that way they are a better fit for the market you are betting into. As you can see on any odds comparison site the draw odds differ wildly, many bookmakers lazily leave the draw odds below the average and look at it as their earner, so it’s the bookmakers who actively look to lay the draw that you need to get the odds from, Pinnacle is a fair assessment. Remember that these odds will be relatively stable throughout the week until around Friday afternoon when generally the more solid information starts coming in, from there in anything can and does happen. Sadly I have no answer to help those betting the draw exclusively but to wish you luck, hopefully I’ve explained some of its randomness. What new punters or even more experienced punters need to remember is betting is very basic and not like some try to convey, similar to Stock Markets and derivative dealings.(As if they can get it right there) A simple but logical approach will do and if it doesn’t, complicating it certainly won’t, get back to the drawing board. I will end this post with a quote from Paul Krugman, the American Economist which although speaking about the use of Mathematical Physics by analysts on the World Stock markets, it certainly rings true of Sports betting Forums today. “It is cynical but true to say that in the academic world the theories that are most likely to attract a devoted following are those that best allow a clever but not very original man to demonstrate his cleverness†:ok i got something from this bro i had to delve deep but i got it:drums Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stefan2008 Posted July 31, 2011 Share Posted July 31, 2011 Re: DRAWING CONCLUSIONS I liked your previous posts but this one is bs most of time. You're going to extremes and generalize things to prove your points. No serious punter is looking for exactness, every serious punter knows there is no holy grail because market is evolving constantly and adjustments need to be made. If there was not for patterns everything would be pretty much pointless. Having said that, our mind's structure which tends to compulsively look for those patterns in order to "protect" us from unknown things/situations, needs to be taken care of to the extent possible. To imply that all people trying to build a betting model based on some correlation fall into the trap of cognitive biases is a huge over exaggeration. The end result of all this can be seen in Baseball ( a game with the randomness of two dice being thrown ) Any numbers to back this up or we have to give your perception the benefit of the doubt? What new punters or even more experienced punters need to remember is betting is very basic and not like some try to convey, similar to Stock Markets and derivative dealings.There's no substantial difference between betting and stock market. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mayfly Posted July 31, 2011 Author Share Posted July 31, 2011 Re: DRAWING CONCLUSIONS bicardirum, You really do need to stand on your own two feet and learn. Nobody is ever going to win long term on posted plays, too many random factors. You have a lot to learn and sadly your not kopping on, maybe your destined to be one of life's loser's, hopefully not. MPLouis, I thought it was sharp of you to pick up on my quote but after reading the first 50 of your posts sadly it seems glibe comments are all you can offer to a sports betting forum. stefan 2008. Your questions show your complete ineptness to understand fundamental Sports betting and like bacadirum, I wish you luck in your suffering. I would like to thank everyone who posted that they learned something from my posts but unfortunately sports forums appear to be filled with people hellbent on ridiculing genuine attempts to help while posting nonsense themselves. I wish everyone the best for the future. :ok Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stefan2008 Posted July 31, 2011 Share Posted July 31, 2011 Re: DRAWING CONCLUSIONS stefan 2008 Your questions show your complete ineptness to understand fundamental Sports betting and like bacadirum, I wish you luck in your suffering. Which questions you are referring to? Read again please, it's not all about writing. Me asking you to back complete and utter speculation on your part regarding MLB betting with some stats thus going beyond your biases proves my ineptness to understand fundamental sports betting?! C'mon, you can do better than this, it's too obvious. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ScottyXS Posted July 31, 2011 Share Posted July 31, 2011 Re: DRAWING CONCLUSIONS That's the 1st of August now Mayfly. You going to start actually listing selections? Theories are all very well, but we need actual picks involving an actual "system" IMO if this is to indeed be in this subforum. If not surely this would be better suited to General chat. Will be interesting to see if you do make anything,.after the insults you have thrown about, let's see if your any different yourself. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
western skies Posted August 1, 2011 Share Posted August 1, 2011 Re: DRAWING CONCLUSIONS Theories are all very well, but we need actual picks involving an actual "system" IMO if this is to indeed be in this subforum. If not surely this would be better suited to General chat. To be fair Scotty, Systems & Strategy isn't just about picks. Discussion about systems is fine too, provided it's useful and relevant. :ok I would like to thank everyone who posted that they learned something from my posts but unfortunately sports forums appear to be filled with people hellbent on ridiculing genuine attempts to help while posting nonsense themselves Mayfly, I think you'll find that most sports forums - and this forum in particular - are full of people who have a genuine interest in and enthusiasmin for their subject, and are sharp enough to question opinions that are presented as gospel. You aren't giving a lecture, you're engaging in an open forum, so please show some respect for those who don't necessarily agree with your theories. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shy10ck Posted August 1, 2011 Share Posted August 1, 2011 Re: DRAWING CONCLUSIONS bicardirum, You really do need to stand on your own two feet and learn. Nobody is ever going to win long term on posted plays, too many random factors. You have a lot to learn and sadly your not kopping on, maybe your destined to be one of life's loser's, hopefully not. MPLouis, I thought it was sharp of you to pick up on my quote but after reading the first 50 of your posts sadly it seems glibe comments are all you can offer to a sports betting forum. stefan 2008. Your questions show your complete ineptness to understand fundamental Sports betting and like bacadirum, I wish you luck in your suffering. I would like to thank everyone who posted that they learned something from my posts but unfortunately sports forums appear to be filled with people hellbent on ridiculing genuine attempts to help while posting nonsense themselves. I wish everyone the best for the future. :ok mayfly, your posts are only representing your point of view, and you do that great. Thx. But remember, you are NOT preaching the only truth (and truth only), so you might still be able to learn something from this forum to. Behave. Good luck with your 01/08 betting start. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Alexc Posted August 1, 2011 Share Posted August 1, 2011 Re: DRAWING CONCLUSIONS How odd that Mayfly'd say his goodbye's the evening before August first... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mister magoo Posted August 1, 2011 Share Posted August 1, 2011 Re: DRAWING CONCLUSIONS How odd that Mayfly'd say his goodbye's the evening before August first... I was having a beer with Nostradamus today and he said that he thought that would happen...:loon:welcome Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brookes Posted August 1, 2011 Share Posted August 1, 2011 Re: DRAWING CONCLUSIONS I've enjoyed reading mayfly's post and I hope he continues , even if he does not post a single pick. I do not agree with all that he posts but his posts are thought provoking. I find mayfly's posts eloquent and when he posts thoughts that are similar to mine [occasionally ] they're expressed much better than I could. I've very rarely bet the draw as I find it difficult to predict , perhaps mayfly will amaze us and his winning picks will be draws Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Alexc Posted August 1, 2011 Share Posted August 1, 2011 Re: DRAWING CONCLUSIONS I was having a beer with Nostradamus today and he said that he thought that would happen...:loon:welcome :lol Gonna resist the urge to make a comment about Nostradamus and Mayfly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bacardirum Posted August 1, 2011 Share Posted August 1, 2011 Re: DRAWING CONCLUSIONS Why you mention my suffering (what suffering), are you mentally retarded or something :unsure You know naff all about my life or my betting/trading. Trust me if I did not make money from what I do longterm I would certainly be putting my money elsewhere, and thankfully my life does not rely on gambling to survive. Again, a lot of words with very little substance from you, so goodbye and jog on little fella :ok Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jase82 Posted August 1, 2011 Share Posted August 1, 2011 Re: DRAWING CONCLUSIONS Why is everyone so cynical over this thread, but when it comes to some other inane "strategy" that is not researched, thought about, and looks like it was written by a four year old, everyone laps it up :\ Mayfly's posts are eloquently written, and well thought out, so I think he deserves a little patience..... considering we seem to afford all the patience in the world to the betfair crowd PL seem to attract. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bacardirum Posted August 1, 2011 Share Posted August 1, 2011 Re: DRAWING CONCLUSIONS From my point of view Jase it is because the guy must be a 14 year old, I posted above that it would be nice if he posted all his thoughts in one thread instead of 5, so it would be easier to follow/read etc Yet he remarks with what all I can say is an immature reply as to why I am suffering etc and another member, purely pointless. It's true what they say, actions speak louder than words, and when it came to the date where betting commenced he bottled it and said his goodbyes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jase82 Posted August 1, 2011 Share Posted August 1, 2011 Re: DRAWING CONCLUSIONS Yeah, but mate, you deserved that response IMO because your post wasn't particularly constructive :) I think everyone should just leave the thread alone....as WS pointed out system and strategy isn't just about providing people with a thousand picks they can lazily make money from, it's about the theory behind it and this is a great thread for PL to have. At the minute all the naysayers are coming across as though they're having trouble with the big words :lol If he posts some picks, great, if he doesn't....then have we really lost anything :unsure Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bacardirum Posted August 1, 2011 Share Posted August 1, 2011 Re: DRAWING CONCLUSIONS As I said m8, friendly advice, easier to follow when all in one place (never once questioned posts), if that warrants insults (ones that he randomly made up in his head), fair play to him. I shall remain anonymous in all future posts/threads by him, if he decides to return. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ScottyXS Posted August 1, 2011 Share Posted August 1, 2011 Re: DRAWING CONCLUSIONS At the minute all the naysayers are coming across as though they're having trouble with the big words :lol Absolute piffle. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jase82 Posted August 1, 2011 Share Posted August 1, 2011 Re: DRAWING CONCLUSIONS Absolute piffle. :rollin knew you'd bite :ok Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ScottyXS Posted August 1, 2011 Share Posted August 1, 2011 Re: DRAWING CONCLUSIONS IMHO I see the use of 1 of thse threads remaining open, not the other 3 or 4 he's started, if people really feel it is useful- but still feel it's in the wrong forum! What I don't like is if you already knew about staying disciplined and focused, which I would like to believe most of us already do, then examples after examples why doesn't go very far. And the little bits which have not been general knowledge are certainly very much his own opinion, such as the draws, which do seem a bit out of wack, but if that's questioned then we suddenly bcome losers struggling through life :lol:lol:lol I have to admit one thing that caught my eye from his original post. Recently My wife acquired a permanent medical condition which has left me caring for her fulltime and no other income but welfare, so what was my hobby has suddenly become a much needed source of money. The reason for posting is to give others an insight of what it entails and what difficulties crop up when stepping up a gear from minimal profitable recreational gambling to a must win situation. To me, even though he has written a book about theory, he seems to have forgotten the first rule of betting- do not gamble what you cannot afford to lose! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gelkinwhite Posted August 1, 2011 Share Posted August 1, 2011 Re: DRAWING CONCLUSIONS i've enjoyed this thread and like others sat and waited for mayflys selections and strategies,i dont really understand mayflys disgust that we all dont think like him.maybe i missed something and it all got to much,but imo punting should be fun,this thread started with so much promise that i would like mayfly to come back list his picks and thoughts and we can all get back to analizing winners and losers like we do every day......good luck Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
trips Posted August 1, 2011 Share Posted August 1, 2011 Re: DRAWING CONCLUSIONS I did enjoy reading mayflys story of the Parkinsons sufferer who was prescribed Dopamine and lost a fortune, it may have helped the addicts understand why they are addicts .obviously there's a lot more to addiction than Dopamine and ive read more helpful advice written by psychologists but i thought it was fascinating just the same. I never looked at Mayfly as a possible tipping service, I just hoped he would help to give me another view on how to look at gambling, can't say it did but i am not new to gambling but i am open to change, i imagine a few members may have taken something form his posts,fair enough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
captaincool Posted August 1, 2011 Share Posted August 1, 2011 Re: DRAWING CONCLUSIONS bicardirum, You really do need to stand on your own two feet and learn. Nobody is ever going to win long term on posted plays, too many random factors. You have a lot to learn and sadly your not kopping on, maybe your destined to be one of life's loser's, hopefully not. MPLouis, I thought it was sharp of you to pick up on my quote but after reading the first 50 of your posts sadly it seems glibe comments are all you can offer to a sports betting forum. stefan 2008. Your questions show your complete ineptness to understand fundamental Sports betting and like bacadirum, I wish you luck in your suffering. I would like to thank everyone who posted that they learned something from my posts but unfortunately sports forums appear to be filled with people hellbent on ridiculing genuine attempts to help while posting nonsense themselves. I wish everyone the best for the future. :ok Yeah, but mate, you deserved that response IMO because your post wasn't particularly constructive :) I think everyone should just leave the thread alone....as WS pointed out system and strategy isn't just about providing people with a thousand picks they can lazily make money from, it's about the theory behind it and this is a great thread for PL to have. At the minute all the naysayers are coming across as though they're having trouble with the big words :lol If he posts some picks, great, if he doesn't....then have we really lost anything :unsure Can I pick up on both these posts? 1st post - Nonsense. Personally, I find posters like MPLouis the best thing about this forum. He clearly knows his stuff and his questions over picks/bets are always worth asking. There are too many people (mayfly included) that act as if they are gods/geniuses when it comes to betting. Maybe if a lot of there people considered things more they'd be more useful. Jase - Typical. I don't understand you at all. You seem to have a huge deal of insight and I really respect you. However, you seem intent on creating a persona for yourself and becoming married to your opinions. This comes across so often in your posts. You also seem determined to make a huge number of posts/comments across a variety of threads and it seems to really hold you back. I don't know you but I noticed in the betfair thread that you said you're unaffected by the commission hike. With your knowledge you probably should be. Why don't you stop posting random 'party line' type comments and instead focus on just posting some really good, well thought out picks, like you're capable of. That's what people come to the forum for in the first place. I'd like to challenge you to create a system/glory hunt thread, post your real betting results. That would prove yourself far more than a statement like: "At the minute all the naysayers are coming across as though they're having trouble with the big words" That just makes you look like a prick. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jase82 Posted August 2, 2011 Share Posted August 2, 2011 Re: DRAWING CONCLUSIONS Jase - Typical. I don't understand you at all. You seem to have a huge deal of insight and I really respect you. However, you seem intent on creating a persona for yourself and becoming married to your opinions. This comes across so often in your posts. You also seem determined to make a huge number of posts/comments across a variety of threads and it seems to really hold you back. I don't know you but I noticed in the betfair thread that you said you're unaffected by the commission hike. With your knowledge you probably should be. Why don't you stop posting random 'party line' type comments and instead focus on just posting some really good, well thought out picks, like you're capable of. That's what people come to the forum for in the first place. I'd like to challenge you to create a system/glory hunt thread, post your real betting results. That would prove yourself far more than a statement like: Funny, what have I been doing for the last few years :loon If you'd been keeping a close tab of my posts as you so clearly think you have, then you'd have seen me post my views on "systems".... I'm sorry you feel that way, but my focus here was purely to get everyone to stop laying into Mayfly. I found your post extremely patronising, so meh, all about opinions mate. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
captaincool Posted August 2, 2011 Share Posted August 2, 2011 Re: DRAWING CONCLUSIONS Funny, what have I been doing for the last few years :loon If you'd been keeping a close tab of my posts as you so clearly think you have, then you'd have seen me post my views on "systems".... I'm sorry you feel that way, but my focus here was purely to get everyone to stop laying into Mayfly. I found your post extremely patronising, so meh, all about opinions mate. :rollin Just to make this more useful - I just meant post your bets in one thread. Only system would be what you pick..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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