Learning Discipline

[captaincool]

Re: Learning Discipline

Odds on this went up to 1.95. Doubling stake' date=' so another 2.5pts @1.95[/quote'] -5pts on Troicki :sad That's twice I've added to bets and twice they've lost. Karma? I'm not doing well this week, haven't been putting in the research and it's shown.

[captaincool]

Re: Learning Discipline

One more horse today: 20:30 Newmarket - Long Awaited 2pts @6/4 BOG Long Awaited won smartly at Ripon, beating a horse that went out and won next time. He then put in a very credible effort at Chester, when finishing fourth. This race looks far easier, with the rest of the field looking exposed. Roger Varian's 3 year old is still a bit ahead of the handicapper and should prove it today.

Having another tennis bet. Sabine Lisicki (+2.5 games) v Vera Zvonareva 2.5pts @1.75 Lisicki has been on fire recently. She's the most upwardly mobile player on the women's tour with her performance at Wimbledon a real breakout one for the 21 year old. She's full of confidence and hitting well. Zonareva won an easy tournament in Baku last week but she doesn't look that great at the moment. She struggles to hold her serve and I think Lisicki will definitely get chances. I'm slightly worried by the 2-0 h2h in favour of Zvonareva, so I'll take the +2.5 on Lisicki, which would have won the last time they played.

Long Awaited was nowhere and lost. -2pts Lisicki handicap bet is a winner, thanks to her saving several match points on her own serve. +2pts

[captaincool]

Re: Learning Discipline Week 2 Stats Staked: 46.5 pts (£930) Returned: 37.5pts (£750) Loss: -9.5pts (£180) Week 1 Stats Staked: 75.5pts (£1510) Returned 102.5pts (£2050) Profit: 27pts (£540) Overall Staked: 122pts (£2440) Returned: 140pts (£2800) Profit: 18pts (£360) The bare stats still look good but this thread has gone a bit haywire. It started off very nice but then bets suddenly just started increasing. The week 2 stats were entirely dominated by a 20pt outlay on three bets that returned 4pts :eek There are a lot of lessons to be learned this week but the key is to not get too emotionally attached. I allowed myself to stupidly get bothered by a bad bet at the end of last week and that affected the whole outlook this week. I started chasing things when I didn't need to. Hopefully this won't happen again and if there are no good bets, none will be taken and if there's one, it won't be full stakes. :ok *just a note - these have all been bets that I've placed, if anyone requires screenshots just ask.

[captaincool]

Re: Learning Discipline Starting with a clear head and a positive attitude for week three and the aim is to get the profit boosted. One bet today from the horses: Wolverhampton 16:45 3pts @4/6 Stand Guard BOG Stand Guard has won three of his last four starts and is chasing a hat-trick today at Wolverhampton. He won over course and distance on his last trip to the polytrack and is expected to go well today. He should be too good for a weak looking field.

[captaincool]

Re: Learning Discipline

Starting with a clear head and a positive attitude for week three and the aim is to get the profit boosted. One bet today from the horses: Wolverhampton 16:45 3pts @4/6 Stand Guard BOG Stand Guard has won three of his last four starts and is chasing a hat-trick today at Wolverhampton. He won over course and distance on his last trip to the polytrack and is expected to go well today. He should be too good for a weak looking field.

Nice to get the week off to a winning start :clap Now, time to blow the profits on one more selection for the day! Ballinrobe 18:20 Hisaabaat 2pts @6/4 BOG Dermot Weld hasn't been as prolific in the last week as he was at the start of the Galway festival but I think he can find me a winner here today. Hisaabaat is a rapidly improving horse, who has looked better and more assured each time he has run. He didn't deal properly with the bend in his last race but finished well to finish third. Blinkers have been fitted today and they should do the trick. Pat Smullen on board is also a good thing. There's a bit of money around for Luggers Hall, who is a very worthy foe but let's hope Hisaabaat can pip him. :ok

[captaincool]

Re: Learning Discipline One more tonight Ballinrobe 19:50 Psycho 1pt @3/1 BOG Psycho i more known as a chaser at the moment but he's still a class act over timber. He was far better than the result suggested in the Galway Plate and I think he should be the favourite here. Muirhead is the main danger after a decent performance at Galway but I think it's worth taking on Noel Meade's horse at a decent price.

[captaincool]

Re: Learning Discipline

Nice to get the week off to a winning start :clap Now, time to blow the profits on one more selection for the day! Ballinrobe 18:20 Hisaabaat 2pts @6/4 BOG Dermot Weld hasn't been as prolific in the last week as he was at the start of the Galway festival but I think he can find me a winner here today. Hisaabaat is a rapidly improving horse, who has looked better and more assured each time he has run. He didn't deal properly with the bend in his last race but finished well to finish third. Blinkers have been fitted today and they should do the trick. Pat Smullen on board is also a good thing. There's a bit of money around for Luggers Hall, who is a very worthy foe but let's hope Hisaabaat can pip him. :ok

Pat Smullen on board was a great thing! The horse didn't really look like winning with a few furlongs to go but Smullen got to work and produced a really good win. The gamble on Luggers Hall proved to be nothing but what it did was jack the price on Hisaabaat up to 9/4 :eek Will calculate total P/L after the final race. Currently mulling over some tennis selections but don't know if I should get involved this early in the tournament.

[captaincool]

Re: Learning Discipline

One more tonight Ballinrobe 19:50 Psycho 1pt @3/1 BOG Psycho i more known as a chaser at the moment but he's still a class act over timber. He was far better than the result suggested in the Galway Plate and I think he should be the favourite here. Muirhead is the main danger after a decent performance at Galway but I think it's worth taking on Noel Meade's horse at a decent price.

Clean sweep fell at the final hurdle. Literally, Psycho fell at the last. Not sure if he'd have won or not but three of them went over together and he fell.

[angeal]

Re: Learning Discipline Only on the first - well done:clap

[captaincool]

Re: Learning Discipline

Only on the first - well done:clap

Thanks :ok +5.5pts profit yesterday was good. Let's hope we can carry that on today. I'm backing Tony McCoy this afternoon. His first ride is the one I'm most interested in and will back: 14:15 Newton Abbot - Arctic Reach 2pts @2.1 betfair This horse has been well backed and I think a big run is expected today at Newton Abbot. He came second at Market Rasan when conceding a penalty and his form looks a lot better than a pretty weak field. McCoy is on board and he will get the best out of the horse, which should alleviate any concerns about him being a bit awkward. 15:45 Newton Abbot - War Party 1pt win 2pts place I haven't taken this bet yet but it's not due to a lack of confidence, just that I want more on the place than the win, so I'm using betfair and the market's a bit static at the moment. This horse is better than it's shown on its last couple of starts, having won a few races over this distance at the end of 2010. The last run was better than the previous and I'm expecting further improvement today. McCoy is an eye-catching booking and I think he'll go very close. The main rivals are Oceana Gold, who has a 10lb penalty for a recent win and Exulto, who tired and was just beaten in a lower class race LTO. Bushwacker has an 11lb penalty to contend with and is error prone, while Lord Jay Jay doesn't look up to it. :hope

[captaincool]

Re: Learning Discipline

Thanks :ok +5.5pts profit yesterday was good. Let's hope we can carry that on today. I'm backing Tony McCoy this afternoon. His first ride is the one I'm most interested in and will back: 14:15 Newton Abbot - Arctic Reach 2pts @2.1 betfair This horse has been well backed and I think a big run is expected today at Newton Abbot. He came second at Market Rasan when conceding a penalty and his form looks a lot better than a pretty weak field. McCoy is on board and he will get the best out of the horse, which should alleviate any concerns about him being a bit awkward. 15:45 Newton Abbot - War Party 1pt win 2pts place I haven't taken this bet yet but it's not due to a lack of confidence, just that I want more on the place than the win, so I'm using betfair and the market's a bit static at the moment. This horse is better than it's shown on its last couple of starts, having won a few races over this distance at the end of 2010. The last run was better than the previous and I'm expecting further improvement today. McCoy is an eye-catching booking and I think he'll go very close. The main rivals are Oceana Gold, who has a 10lb penalty for a recent win and Exulto, who tired and was just beaten in a lower class race LTO. Bushwacker has an 11lb penalty to contend with and is error prone, while Lord Jay Jay doesn't look up to it. :hope

I'm not sure what to think today. McCoy did really well to win on Arctic Reach but I feel I was the victim of some kind of coup in the second. I backed War Party at 7.2 for the win and 2.66 for the place but after about 10 seconds of the race he was trading at 27.0. He never moved out of last place and something wasn't right. :unsure -1pt for the day and I feel like I've been robbed.

[captaincool]

Re: Learning Discipline I'm very busy this week so I don't think there'll be any tennis bets going on. This might end up being a good thing but it'll probably lower potential profit as there won't be many bets. Two horse racing today: Beverley 16:20 - Licence to Till 2pts @3/1 BOG Took this last night (only just missed the 7/2) because it looks wrong. The danger in this race is Fossgate but a drop in trip and increase in grade is a tough combo to overcome. Licence to Till looked really good last year, winning three times and it is incredible that he didn't get raised by the handicapper for his runs at Doncaster and Newmarket. This is a drop down for him and champion jockey challenger Silverstre De Sousa is on board. Gowran Park 20:10 - Along Came Casey 2pts @6/4 I expect this one to go off odds-on. My love for Dermot Weld/Pat Smullen is well documented here and they team up on Along Came Casey at Gowran. The horse was beaten at Galway :eek but only because it was almost brought down early on. It's head and shoulders above this field and I expect redemption today. :hope

[captaincool]

Re: Learning Discipline

I'm very busy this week so I don't think there'll be any tennis bets going on. This might end up being a good thing but it'll probably lower potential profit as there won't be many bets. Two horse racing today: Beverley 16:20 - Licence to Till 2pts @3/1 BOG Took this last night (only just missed the 7/2) because it looks wrong. The danger in this race is Fossgate but a drop in trip and increase in grade is a tough combo to overcome. Licence to Till looked really good last year, winning three times and it is incredible that he didn't get raised by the handicapper for his runs at Doncaster and Newmarket. This is a drop down for him and champion jockey challenger Silverstre De Sousa is on board. Gowran Park 20:10 - Along Came Casey 2pts @6/4 I expect this one to go off odds-on. My love for Dermot Weld/Pat Smullen is well documented here and they team up on Along Came Casey at Gowran. The horse was beaten at Galway :eek but only because it was almost brought down early on. It's head and shoulders above this field and I expect redemption today. :hope

Licence to Till led from start to finish but was pipped on the line by 16/1 shot Ailsa Craig. Was backed in to 15/8 so there were probably a few people as annoyed as me. Wasn't a bad pick though and I got a price that was longer than it should have been, but 15/8 shots lose sometimes too! I didn't see the Along Came Casey Run but it went off at odds on and won so I'm going to assume it hosed up :p +1pt for the day is okay but the profit is harded to come by at the moment. Hopefully that'll change once the football season gets going properly. :ok

[captaincool]

Re: Learning Discipline No time today but have three from Newmarket 14:20 Appointee - 2pts @8/11 BOG 16:00 Trumpet Major - 1.5pts @4/6 BOG 17:10 Planetoid - 1pt 6/4 BOG

[captaincool]

Re: Learning Discipline

No time today but have three from Newmarket 14:20 Appointee - 2pts @8/11 BOG 16:00 Trumpet Major - 1.5pts @4/6 BOG 17:10 Planetoid - 1pt 6/4 BOG

Appointee - third and well beaten by Fallon's mount Besito. Poor run and very disappointing. Trumpet Major - Won really well and looks a good prospect. Watched the race and wished I had a lot more on :\ Went off at 8/11* Planetoid - Another good runner. Sweated like crazy but did the job well. *for the purposes of P/L calculations I'll keep this as 4/6, much easier to work out. Total Staked: 4.5pts Total Returns: 5pts Doesn't seem right to have only 0.5pts profit :@

[captaincool]

Re: Learning Discipline Some good recent selections but not too much reward but I'll keep on trying. 2:45 Newcastle - Magic Bounty 1pt @9/4 BOG A strong stayer who hasn't quite had as much success as he should have but I think this is the race that connections have found for him to win. He's been good without winning in three maidens so far and the Easterby stable's in good form at the moment. 3:55 Newcastle - West Brit 2.5pts @6/5 BOG Biggest bet of the day and let's hope that it doesn't go the same way as yesterday's! West Brit finished second to Dare to Dance at Sandown on soft ground and should go very well today. He's improving with every run and looks comfortably better than the field in this race. Racing Post have him 15lbs better than the next best, Carinya, and he's given nowhere near that weight. 5:40 Newcastle - Captain Kolo 1pt @2/1 BOG Another Easterby runner and another that should enjoy the soft ground. He won on his last start on the soft and although he's been a little indifferent recently, his last run at Ripon was good. Drop in class today and I expect him to go very, very close. Majestic Myles is the big danger, hence small stakes. 1:30 Newbury - The Nile 1pt @11/4 BOG Taking on the favourite here with John Gosden's 2-y-o, who holds entries to both the Dewhurst and Royal Lodge. William Buick on board is a positive and I think he might just be able to get the better of the filly, Firdaws, although again, it's small stakes. 2:00 Newbury - Top Offer 1pt@11/8 BOG Another that races in the Prince Khalled Abdullah that has some eye-catching entries. Top Offer has been attracting plenty of market support and I think it's worth taking note of. Would go in with more but I'm loathe to oppose a Hannon/Hughes 2-y-o and Tidy Affair could put up a challenge. Hoping that the class of Top Offer will come through though. 2:35 Newbury - Corporal Maddox 1pt @9/4 Third bet in three races at Newbury :unsure but I fancy Corporal Maddox to win a strong race. Big drop in class today for a horse that has won a listed race and place in group contest as a juvenile. Fallon on board and although I hate him, he's in good form. Just not when I back any of his rides! Could easily go through the card at Newbury as there are loads that I fancy, so instead I'll stick on a placepot. I might come back and back Farlow though, who looks a good thing but I've already staked a fair bit, so I'll hang fire for the moment.

[captaincool]

Re: Learning Discipline Decided against the placepot, one more bet instead: 4:20 Newbury Farlow 1.5pts @11/8 BOG This horse was very impressive at Lingfield last time out, winning with quite a bit to spare. That was his third win in four starts and although he rides under a 6lb penalty, claimer Charles Bishop takes off 7lb, so it's effectively 1lb lower. I think this is a race that connections seem to have targetted. Resisted the temptation to get carried away with the stakes but I'm fairly confident.