Calling Skylark and League 1 Punter

[St.dom]

[skylark2009]

Re: Calling Skylark and League 1 Punter Hello St Dom. (I hope this post isn't too long winded) Calculating losing runs is very straighforward and can be done in Excel (or any other spreadsheet) or simply using a scientific calculator (there's a calculator app in the accessories folder). The formula needed is LOG(expected sample size)/-LOG(1-expected success rate) e.g. Expected number of bets (the sample size) = 500 Expected success rate = 0.25 (25%) putting it into through the formula gives LOG(500) / -LOG(1 - 0.25) and will give an answer 21.60 to 2dp or an estimated losing run of 21 or 22 for the sample size/expected success rate in this example. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Applying losing runs to 'Level Stakes' staking is simply dividing your bank by the estimated losing run to give you your 'level stake' e.g. Expected Number of bets = 500 Expected success rate = 0.25 (25%) Bank = 1000pts Estimated losing run (ELR) = 22 Level stake = 1000 / 22 or 45.45pts - so each bet would be 45pts or 4.5% of the bank in this example. I would urge caution here and suggest that the ELR have a multiplier of 2 (or even better of 3) applied to reduce the risk to the bank even further, this would cater for two or three long losing runs coming close together or a flurry of smaller losing runs with a few intermittent winners. e.g. Bank = 1000 Estimated losing run (ELR) = 22 Multiplier = 3 Level stake = 1000 / (22 x 3) or 15.15pts - each bet would be 15pts or 1.5% of the bank here. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ I have used the info from your post to generate the two tables below. Your assessed strike rate = 20% to 25% Your Bank = 1000pts Number of expected bets = 1000 (none given here - so I will use this number) Multiplier = 3 (simply being cautious here)

	20.00%	21.00%	22.00%	23.00%	24.00%	25.00%
1000	30.96	29.30	27.80	26.43	25.17	24.01

LLR x 3 >>>	92.87	87.91	83.41	79.29	75.51	72.04
Bank / LLR x 3	10.77	11.37	11.99	12.61	13.24	13.88
% Of Bank	1.08%	1.14%	1.20%	1.26%	1.32%	1.39%

So over 1000 bets @ 20% SR, you should expect losing runs of up to 30 or 31 Using a multiplier of 3 would cater for a losing run of approx 92 which would suggest a level stake of approx 11pts or 1.1% of the bank. So over 1000 bets @ 25% SR, you should expect losing runs of up to 24 or 25 Using a multiplier of 3 would cater for a losing run of approx 72 which would suggest a level stake of approx 14pts or 1.4% of the bank. You could even variate your stakes slightly by using your expected success rate. e.g. (using tables) bets @ 20% would be 1.1% of bank or 11pts bets @ 21% would be 1.15% of bank or 11.5pts bets @ 22% would be 1.2% of bank or 12pts bets @ 23% would be 1.25% of bank or 12.5pts bets @ 24% would be 1.3% of bank or 13pts bets @ 25% would be 1.4% of bank or 14pts ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------