bacardirum Posted July 29, 2011 Author Share Posted July 29, 2011 Re: Double 1.5 Goals Happy for mods to move if this is the wrong section, but I don't think it's suited for glory hunt as I am not trying to gamble myself to any glory. just trying a strategy testing football knowledge to see if can turn a profit over the season :ok Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jase82 Posted July 29, 2011 Share Posted July 29, 2011 Re: Double 1.5 Goals Why, is the glory hunt section not for when you are trying to reach a goal/target within bets, i.e £5.00 to £1,000,000.00 in 29.3 bets :p This is a strategy based on football knowledge, not a glory hunt to get to x amount. Sorry that was just a general point as what you said made it sound a million miles away from a strategy... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bacardirum Posted July 29, 2011 Author Share Posted July 29, 2011 Re: Double 1.5 Goals No worries m8 :ok, not having a strategy would be me putting all the fixtures into little balls and then randomly selecting some to come out. Who knows that might prove to be better :lol Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Betnineteen Posted July 29, 2011 Share Posted July 29, 2011 Re: Double 1.5 Goals Hi mate, I often bet on the over 1.5 goals market myself as I feel it's definitely the most profitable thing out there. I hear everything you were saying about educated guesses - sometimes you just know. But at the same time I do recommend looking at trends in the market. For instance, you're probably aware, but Betfair has a fantastic range of statistics in its form guide section (not form stats, which are basic and crap). For instance, in the Norwegian Tippeligaen tomorrow, Molde are playing at home to Valerenga. At home this season, Molde have gone over 1.5 goals 8/8 times and Valerenga have gone over 6/8 times, creating quite a high strike rate for this one game. I appreciate that nothing is certain in life but following these stats would lead me to believe that the over 1.5 goals was very likely indeed. Another thing you could try (which is what I do) is backing over 1.5 to lay after the first goal is scored. On average, the over market is priced at about 1.28 before a game. After an early goal (goal in the first half) it drops to 1.08[ish], creating a perfect lay opportunity, and decreasing the chances of a loss. I see that you're doing double at the mo so you can't lay those, but if the games are at different times and Game 1 has been successful, you could consider laying Game 2 after goal number 1. Sorry if that was a waffle. Just a thought! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bacardirum Posted July 30, 2011 Author Share Posted July 30, 2011 Re: Double 1.5 Goals Yeah m8 cannot rule out stats, not saying they don't help, if a team has a high % of high scoring games playing at home in a new season is definitely reason to look. Just like how last season backing the over 2.5 goals in Blackpool games was a good shout. As long as you take the opposition as well for the what the stats are showing, like I would feel reluctant even to back over 1.5 last season if the fixture was Stoke v Blackpool, even though the previous stats is shouting out that over 2.5 on Blackpool games is a good bet, but yeah the way you mentioned is good :ok If you want to trade the bets that's always good, however my only problem with this is in doubles (even if one game is first), if the first game is all good and over 1.5, I will just be losing profit if I always layed the 2nd game when 1 goal was scored. For example currently I have a ratio which means if I win 2 from 3 games I can afford the 3rd lose, as long as I can consistently try and keep this up, should be ok. However if I cut out potential profit by laying out 2nd game after 1 goal, I think I seriously reduce that ratio (even though in reality it's the best thing to do as it locks in profit), but as there has alerady been a goal anyway, perhaps who knows 65-70% of these games would have went on to have at least the 2nd goal. Certainly if what you are doing is single, if goal goes in and things are looking bit tighter, trading out guaranteed profit is wise :ok Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bacardirum Posted August 1, 2011 Author Share Posted August 1, 2011 Re: Double 1.5 Goals Bet 6 Braunschweig v B Munich Monaco v Boulogne 10 points bet - 5.99 points return Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris 10b Posted August 1, 2011 Share Posted August 1, 2011 Re: Double 1.5 Goals Good luck with this mate,I think this market is a great way to bet so I will be following you with interest this season. All the best.:hope Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bacardirum Posted August 1, 2011 Author Share Posted August 1, 2011 Re: Double 1.5 Goals Cheers m8 :ok Good luck with this mate' date='I think this market is a great way to bet so I will be following you with interest this season. All the best.:hope[/quote'] Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bacardirum Posted August 2, 2011 Author Share Posted August 2, 2011 Re: Double 1.5 Goals Bet 6 Braunschweig v B Munich :ok Monaco v Boulogne :wall 10 points bet - 5.99 points return New Balance: 93.02 points P+L -6.98 :wall Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jtw1 Posted August 2, 2011 Share Posted August 2, 2011 Re: Double 1.5 Goals Be wary of the French 2nd Div mate , it's a league i like to use for Under 2.5 goals so i'd imagine the % of Over 1.5 isn't the highest. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bacardirum Posted August 2, 2011 Author Share Posted August 2, 2011 Re: Double 1.5 Goals Thanks m8, I will not be using all that often, I thought this one would have had goals :sad Looking forward to the other leagues all starting particularly english :ok Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bacardirum Posted August 2, 2011 Author Share Posted August 2, 2011 Re: Double 1.5 Goals Bet 7 Shamrock Rovers v FC Copenhagen Panathinaikos v OB 10 points bet - 7.98 points return Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bacardirum Posted August 2, 2011 Author Share Posted August 2, 2011 Re: Double 1.5 Goals Bet 7 Shamrock Rovers v FC Copenhagen :ok Panathinaikos v OB :ok 10 points bet - 7.98 points return New Balance: 101.00 points P+L +1.00 :ok Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluemanc Posted August 3, 2011 Share Posted August 3, 2011 Re: Double 1.5 Goals Hi Bacardirum. I am a huge fan of the over 1.5 market and have used lots of statistical approaches over the last 18 months to nail them in doubles with i might add some success. I have however only used our domestic season for betting purposes mainly because of my lack of "world league" knowledge. I would draw your attention(i hope he won,t mind) the the thread "Under or Over.......) by Grex. If you analize his strike rate in the over 2.5 selections and then use them as over 1.5 selections in singles or doubles the strike rate is amazing. Stick in the odd home banker and you can quite easily hit the 3/1 mark which means that you can place lets say 2 bets at level stakes and only one has to oblige to make a profit, get both up which is quite common and you make a handsome profit ! Just a thought for the new season. Good luck. :cheers Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jtw1 Posted August 4, 2011 Share Posted August 4, 2011 Re: Double 1.5 Goals The opening weekend of the Bundesliga has been prettty fruitful in the past regarding the over 1.5 market . A full house of 10/10 last season followed 8/10 , 9/10 , 7/10 , 9/10 and 9/10 in the past 6 seasons. B MUNICH and W BREMEN are on the skinny side but around 1.25 to 1.3 is available on the other 7 fixtures . Hope this bit of trivia helps :hope Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bacardirum Posted August 4, 2011 Author Share Posted August 4, 2011 Re: Double 1.5 Goals Good points guys :ok I will certainly do that bluemac, anyone who has a high % of hitting over 2.5 goals is perfect to validate my own thoughts on the over 1.5 ones I fancy :ok Will be looking at Bundesliga like you mentioned jtw, I do like the German leagues actually :ok Watch this, it will be first weekend where no games are over 1.5 :lol Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jtw1 Posted August 9, 2011 Share Posted August 9, 2011 Re: Double 1.5 Goals The opening weekend of the Bundesliga has been prettty fruitful in the past regarding the over 1.5 market . A full house of 10/10 last season followed 8/10 , 9/10 , 7/10 , 9/10 and 9/10 in the past 6 seasons. B MUNICH and W BREMEN are on the skinny side but around 1.25 to 1.3 is available on the other 7 fixtures . Hope this bit of trivia helps :hope 7/9 this time , lo and behold i managed to pick one of the Unders !! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaRKoZ Posted August 9, 2011 Share Posted August 9, 2011 Re: Double 1.5 Goals 1,5 over is my favourite betting system , good luck my friend :ok Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bacardirum Posted August 13, 2011 Author Share Posted August 13, 2011 Re: Double 1.5 Goals Bet 8 QPR v Bolton Newcastle v Arsenal 10 points bet - 7.13 return Bet 9 Newcastle v Arsenal Birmingham v Coventry 10 points bet - 6.84 return Bet 10 Blackburn v Wolves Newcastle v Arsenal 10 points bet - return 6.56 points Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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