A newbies take on gambling, favourite betting

[jj154]

I got inspired when sweden crushed finland in football.at something insane odds like ~1.4. I have never gambled in my life but before the game I figured finland doesn't stand a chance and the odds were insanely high (i'm finnish) 8) So I began to ponder how long I could streak on "shutout" games and how to identify the correct games. My mission was to bet 50 euros and use the winnings for a new bet and see what happens. Unfortunately, I'm a pussy thus I just bet with 20-40 euro bets. I have now won 11/11 games with a combined goal difference of 32-5, average odds around 1.26. This is not nearly enough bets but i'm fairly pleased because I don't know shit about betting or football. I'm just posting this for discussion and feedback. I'd be surprised if this hasn't been tried yet. The point is to bet on "shutouts" at lower divisions. I try to find games where draw or a loss for the favourite seems the most unlikely. At lower divisions a game is a shutout if the win marging is two goals or more. In my opinion anything can happen at the higher skill levels of a sport but this is more unlikely at the lower tiers, so I bet only on lower divisions. It's a bit hard to articulate why exactly but I feel at the lower tiers the worst teams can't capitalize on opportunities given to them thus minimizing the threat of draws or wins by the underdog. Even if a team is losing by two goals at the highest level they still possess a formidable skillset, motivation and focus. It's difficult to approximate odds for the favourite to lose in shutouts at lower divisions but I'm arguing it's somewhere at 1-10%. After staring at the statistics I came up with some rules regarding game selection. The point is to use statistics only to avoid in depth analysis because I don't know shit. Do not play if: - the underdogs +/- goals are not heavily favoured on the - side (they can defend) - the favourite +/- goals are not heavily favoured on the + side (defensive play/inability to score) - the favourite's win percentage against mutual opponents is not high enough (an approximation of relative skill, not enough "edge") - the underdogs's win percentage against mutual opponents is high (an approximation of relative skill, they can play) - under 5 league games have been played - skill level of the match is high (only lower divisions or obscure countries) Take away/home league standings into consideration. Usually this eliminates other games than between best ~3 and worst ~3 teams. Some leagues are unplayable with these rules. A summary of why I think this could work: -The amount of games offered by bettings sites gives an opportunity for strict game selection -Nature of skill and gameplay in lower skill tiers. Don't have any decent arguments on this one, I just feel bad teams are at least capable at the highest level and the skill gap is even more crushing at lower tiers. -extensive statistics found in websites Finally I can try to elaborate why I feel the gameplay and skill is different at high vs low levels. This may seem somewhat stupid because a skill gap is goddamn skill gap no matter how you look at it. In addition to doing a fair amount of sports I got inspired after watching my mates division 4 football game, they were absolute shit. The other team wouldn't have scored even if someone shot the goalkeeper. At lower levels there is a huge disparity between teams in motivation and orientation. They don't get paid full time and even if they get paid it's not probably enough and they work a different fulltime job. Hobbyists so to speak. I have no idea if there is any truth to this. Anyways, at the highest levels even if a team is not motivated because of bad coaching etc. the team is still highly oriented on winning because of player careers, salary and local support. There is no comparison between the focus and motivation of low and high division teams. This combined with razor sharp margins makes the difference. So this is my betting escapade. I have never gambled in my life but figured I'd see how long I can streak that bet :lol It's quite fun too! I'd be very interested on feedback from people who bet more than I do.

[Jase82]

Re: A newbies take on gambling, favourite betting I think I'd firstly look into which league's year on year present the lowest amount of winners at odds of 1.30 or lower. Purely because without the historical statistical evidence to back up the theory, everything else is just words and not worthwhile pursuing. You're on the right track though I think. Some of the Scandinavian lower league's often have weird results as you're right in suggesting that the lower the skill level the more likely there are to be simple mistakes. Poor defending / offensive play etc.