Frijjbest's (best?) system

[Frijjbest]

Hi everyone, I'll introduce myself first seeing as this is my first post! I've been a long time reader of this site and in particular the systems & strategy forum. It just fascinates me reading the differing views and techniques to come up with your selections to try and beat the bookie. Im 27, from Chester in the north west of England. I'm a bit of an excel geek and love my footy (among other sports) so I obviously try and combine the two for a bit of fun and hopefully some pocket money! A bit about my system - It's entirely statistical, there's no manual intervention based on any team news or anything like that. It looks across all previous results and slightly weights more recent form and calculates a probability that each team will score x amount of goals. I multiply out all of these probabilities to give me the % chance of each results (H/D/A). I apply these same logics to the total goals in a game, and whether or not I think both teams will score. This gives me 3 markets to look at, 1x2, U/O 2.5 goals and Both team score? Selection wise, All bets are backs, no lays. I pick out the most probable outcome for the result and crosscheck it with Betfair odds. If it is deemed to be a value bet it gets backed! Same goes for the under/overs. For the "both team score?" market, there has to be a greater than 50% chance of both teams scoring, and again is checked for value. Everything is backed at Betfair minimum £2. Hope that makes sense, any questions please shout! So here we go with todays selections: Apologies if I get my formatting wrong, I'm never quite sure how Excel translates into forum formats!

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
[FONT=Trebuchet MS][SIZE=2][B]Date[/B][/SIZE][/FONT]
[FONT=Trebuchet MS][SIZE=2][B]Home[/B][/SIZE][/FONT]
[B][FONT=Trebuchet MS][SIZE=2]Away[/SIZE][/FONT][/B]
[FONT=Trebuchet MS][SIZE=2][B]Bet[/B][/SIZE][/FONT]
[FONT=Trebuchet MS][SIZE=2][B]Odds[/B][/SIZE][/FONT]
[FONT=Trebuchet MS][SIZE=2][B]Stake[/B][/SIZE][/FONT]
[FONT=Trebuchet MS][SIZE=2][B]Result[/B][/SIZE][/FONT]
[FONT=Trebuchet MS][SIZE=2][B]P/L[/B][/SIZE][/FONT]
[B][FONT=Trebuchet MS][SIZE=2]ROI[/SIZE][/FONT][/B]
[SIZE=2]01-Jul-11[/SIZE]
[SIZE=2]TANJONG PAGAR UTD FC[/SIZE]
[SIZE=2]GEYLANG UNITED FC[/SIZE]
[FONT=Trebuchet MS][SIZE=2]Over 2.5[/SIZE][/FONT]
[FONT=Trebuchet MS][SIZE=2]1.8[/SIZE][/FONT]
[FONT=Trebuchet MS][SIZE=2]£2[/SIZE][/FONT]
[SIZE=2]01-Jul-11[/SIZE]
[SIZE=2]GALWAY UNITED[/SIZE]
[SIZE=2]UCD[/SIZE]
[FONT=Trebuchet MS][SIZE=2]Under 2.5[/SIZE][/FONT]
[FONT=Trebuchet MS][SIZE=2]2.26[/SIZE][/FONT]
[FONT=Trebuchet MS][SIZE=2]£2[/SIZE][/FONT]
[SIZE=2]01-Jul-11[/SIZE]
[SIZE=2]DUNDALK[/SIZE]
[SIZE=2]BOHEMIANS[/SIZE]
[FONT=Trebuchet MS][SIZE=2]Under 2.5[/SIZE][/FONT]
[FONT=Trebuchet MS][SIZE=2]1.71[/SIZE][/FONT]
[FONT=Trebuchet MS][SIZE=2]£2[/SIZE][/FONT]
[SIZE=2]01-Jul-11[/SIZE]
[SIZE=2]DUNDALK[/SIZE]
[SIZE=2]BOHEMIANS[/SIZE]
[FONT=Trebuchet MS][SIZE=2]Bohemians[/SIZE][/FONT]
[FONT=Trebuchet MS][SIZE=2]4.1[/SIZE][/FONT]
[FONT=Trebuchet MS][SIZE=2]£2[/SIZE][/FONT]
[SIZE=2]01-Jul-11[/SIZE]
[SIZE=2]BRAY WANDERERS[/SIZE]
[SIZE=2]SLIGO ROVERS[/SIZE]
[FONT=Trebuchet MS][SIZE=2]Under 2.5[/SIZE][/FONT]
[FONT=Trebuchet MS][SIZE=2]1.78[/SIZE][/FONT]
[FONT=Trebuchet MS][SIZE=2]£2[/SIZE][/FONT]
[SIZE=2]01-Jul-11[/SIZE]
[SIZE=2]WATERFORD UNITED[/SIZE]
[SIZE=2]LONGFORD TOWN FC[/SIZE]
[FONT=Trebuchet MS][SIZE=2]Under 2.5[/SIZE][/FONT]
[FONT=Trebuchet MS][SIZE=2]1.81[/SIZE][/FONT]
[FONT=Trebuchet MS][SIZE=2]£2[/SIZE][/FONT]
[SIZE=2]01-Jul-11[/SIZE]
[SIZE=2]MONAGHAN UNITED[/SIZE]
[SIZE=2]SHELBOURNE[/SIZE]
[FONT=Trebuchet MS][SIZE=2]Under 2.5[/SIZE][/FONT]
[FONT=Trebuchet MS][SIZE=2]1.84[/SIZE][/FONT]
[FONT=Trebuchet MS][SIZE=2]£2[/SIZE][/FONT]
[SIZE=2]01-Jul-11[/SIZE]
[SIZE=2]MONAGHAN UNITED[/SIZE]
[SIZE=2]SHELBOURNE[/SIZE]
[FONT=Trebuchet MS][SIZE=2]Shelbourne[/SIZE][/FONT]
[FONT=Trebuchet MS][SIZE=2]2.42[/SIZE][/FONT]
[FONT=Trebuchet MS][SIZE=2]£2[/SIZE][/FONT]
[SIZE=2]01-Jul-11[/SIZE]
[SIZE=2]LIMERICK FC[/SIZE]
[SIZE=2]MERVUE UNITED[/SIZE]
[FONT=Trebuchet MS][SIZE=2]Under 2.5[/SIZE][/FONT]
[FONT=Trebuchet MS][SIZE=2]2.34[/SIZE][/FONT]
[FONT=Trebuchet MS][SIZE=2]£2[/SIZE][/FONT]
[SIZE=2]01-Jul-11[/SIZE]
[SIZE=2]ATHLONE TOWN[/SIZE]
[SIZE=2]WEXFORD YOUTHS[/SIZE]
[FONT=Trebuchet MS][SIZE=2]Under 2.5[/SIZE][/FONT]
[FONT=Trebuchet MS][SIZE=2]1.75[/SIZE][/FONT]
[FONT=Trebuchet MS][SIZE=2]£2[/SIZE][/FONT]
[SIZE=2]01-Jul-11[/SIZE]
[SIZE=2]ATHLONE TOWN[/SIZE]
[SIZE=2]WEXFORD YOUTHS[/SIZE]
[FONT=Trebuchet MS][SIZE=2]Athlone[/SIZE][/FONT]
[FONT=Trebuchet MS][SIZE=2]2.22[/SIZE][/FONT]
[FONT=Trebuchet MS][SIZE=2]£2[/SIZE][/FONT]
[B][FONT=Trebuchet MS][SIZE=2]Total[/SIZE][/FONT][/B]
[FONT=Trebuchet MS][SIZE=2]2.18[/SIZE][/FONT]
[FONT=Trebuchet MS][SIZE=2]£22[/SIZE][/FONT]
[FONT=Trebuchet MS][SIZE=2]£0.00[/SIZE][/FONT]
[FONT=Trebuchet MS][SIZE=2]0.0%[/SIZE][/FONT]
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[Frijjbest]