Frijjbest Posted July 1, 2011 Share Posted July 1, 2011 Hi everyone, I'll introduce myself first seeing as this is my first post! I've been a long time reader of this site and in particular the systems & strategy forum. It just fascinates me reading the differing views and techniques to come up with your selections to try and beat the bookie. Im 27, from Chester in the north west of England. I'm a bit of an excel geek and love my footy (among other sports) so I obviously try and combine the two for a bit of fun and hopefully some pocket money! A bit about my system - It's entirely statistical, there's no manual intervention based on any team news or anything like that. It looks across all previous results and slightly weights more recent form and calculates a probability that each team will score x amount of goals. I multiply out all of these probabilities to give me the % chance of each results (H/D/A). I apply these same logics to the total goals in a game, and whether or not I think both teams will score. This gives me 3 markets to look at, 1x2, U/O 2.5 goals and Both team score? Selection wise, All bets are backs, no lays. I pick out the most probable outcome for the result and crosscheck it with Betfair odds. If it is deemed to be a value bet it gets backed! Same goes for the under/overs. For the "both team score?" market, there has to be a greater than 50% chance of both teams scoring, and again is checked for value. Everything is backed at Betfair minimum £2. Hope that makes sense, any questions please shout! So here we go with todays selections: Apologies if I get my formatting wrong, I'm never quite sure how Excel translates into forum formats! [FONT=Trebuchet MS][SIZE=2][B]Date[/B][/SIZE][/FONT][FONT=Trebuchet MS][SIZE=2][B]Home[/B][/SIZE][/FONT][B][FONT=Trebuchet MS][SIZE=2]Away[/SIZE][/FONT][/B][FONT=Trebuchet MS][SIZE=2][B]Bet[/B][/SIZE][/FONT][FONT=Trebuchet MS][SIZE=2][B]Odds[/B][/SIZE][/FONT][FONT=Trebuchet MS][SIZE=2][B]Stake[/B][/SIZE][/FONT][FONT=Trebuchet MS][SIZE=2][B]Result[/B][/SIZE][/FONT][FONT=Trebuchet MS][SIZE=2][B]P/L[/B][/SIZE][/FONT][B][FONT=Trebuchet MS][SIZE=2]ROI[/SIZE][/FONT][/B][SIZE=2]01-Jul-11[/SIZE][SIZE=2]TANJONG PAGAR UTD FC[/SIZE][SIZE=2]GEYLANG UNITED FC[/SIZE][FONT=Trebuchet MS][SIZE=2]Over 2.5[/SIZE][/FONT][FONT=Trebuchet MS][SIZE=2]1.8[/SIZE][/FONT][FONT=Trebuchet MS][SIZE=2]£2[/SIZE][/FONT][SIZE=2]01-Jul-11[/SIZE][SIZE=2]GALWAY UNITED[/SIZE][SIZE=2]UCD[/SIZE][FONT=Trebuchet MS][SIZE=2]Under 2.5[/SIZE][/FONT][FONT=Trebuchet MS][SIZE=2]2.26[/SIZE][/FONT][FONT=Trebuchet MS][SIZE=2]£2[/SIZE][/FONT][SIZE=2]01-Jul-11[/SIZE][SIZE=2]DUNDALK[/SIZE][SIZE=2]BOHEMIANS[/SIZE][FONT=Trebuchet MS][SIZE=2]Under 2.5[/SIZE][/FONT][FONT=Trebuchet MS][SIZE=2]1.71[/SIZE][/FONT][FONT=Trebuchet MS][SIZE=2]£2[/SIZE][/FONT][SIZE=2]01-Jul-11[/SIZE][SIZE=2]DUNDALK[/SIZE][SIZE=2]BOHEMIANS[/SIZE][FONT=Trebuchet MS][SIZE=2]Bohemians[/SIZE][/FONT][FONT=Trebuchet MS][SIZE=2]4.1[/SIZE][/FONT][FONT=Trebuchet MS][SIZE=2]£2[/SIZE][/FONT][SIZE=2]01-Jul-11[/SIZE][SIZE=2]BRAY WANDERERS[/SIZE][SIZE=2]SLIGO ROVERS[/SIZE][FONT=Trebuchet MS][SIZE=2]Under 2.5[/SIZE][/FONT][FONT=Trebuchet MS][SIZE=2]1.78[/SIZE][/FONT][FONT=Trebuchet MS][SIZE=2]£2[/SIZE][/FONT][SIZE=2]01-Jul-11[/SIZE][SIZE=2]WATERFORD UNITED[/SIZE][SIZE=2]LONGFORD TOWN FC[/SIZE][FONT=Trebuchet MS][SIZE=2]Under 2.5[/SIZE][/FONT][FONT=Trebuchet MS][SIZE=2]1.81[/SIZE][/FONT][FONT=Trebuchet MS][SIZE=2]£2[/SIZE][/FONT][SIZE=2]01-Jul-11[/SIZE][SIZE=2]MONAGHAN UNITED[/SIZE][SIZE=2]SHELBOURNE[/SIZE][FONT=Trebuchet MS][SIZE=2]Under 2.5[/SIZE][/FONT][FONT=Trebuchet MS][SIZE=2]1.84[/SIZE][/FONT][FONT=Trebuchet MS][SIZE=2]£2[/SIZE][/FONT][SIZE=2]01-Jul-11[/SIZE][SIZE=2]MONAGHAN UNITED[/SIZE][SIZE=2]SHELBOURNE[/SIZE][FONT=Trebuchet MS][SIZE=2]Shelbourne[/SIZE][/FONT][FONT=Trebuchet MS][SIZE=2]2.42[/SIZE][/FONT][FONT=Trebuchet MS][SIZE=2]£2[/SIZE][/FONT][SIZE=2]01-Jul-11[/SIZE][SIZE=2]LIMERICK FC[/SIZE][SIZE=2]MERVUE UNITED[/SIZE][FONT=Trebuchet MS][SIZE=2]Under 2.5[/SIZE][/FONT][FONT=Trebuchet MS][SIZE=2]2.34[/SIZE][/FONT][FONT=Trebuchet MS][SIZE=2]£2[/SIZE][/FONT][SIZE=2]01-Jul-11[/SIZE][SIZE=2]ATHLONE TOWN[/SIZE][SIZE=2]WEXFORD YOUTHS[/SIZE][FONT=Trebuchet MS][SIZE=2]Under 2.5[/SIZE][/FONT][FONT=Trebuchet MS][SIZE=2]1.75[/SIZE][/FONT][FONT=Trebuchet MS][SIZE=2]£2[/SIZE][/FONT][SIZE=2]01-Jul-11[/SIZE][SIZE=2]ATHLONE TOWN[/SIZE][SIZE=2]WEXFORD YOUTHS[/SIZE][FONT=Trebuchet MS][SIZE=2]Athlone[/SIZE][/FONT][FONT=Trebuchet MS][SIZE=2]2.22[/SIZE][/FONT][FONT=Trebuchet MS][SIZE=2]£2[/SIZE][/FONT][B][FONT=Trebuchet MS][SIZE=2]Total[/SIZE][/FONT][/B][FONT=Trebuchet MS][SIZE=2]2.18[/SIZE][/FONT][FONT=Trebuchet MS][SIZE=2]£22[/SIZE][/FONT][FONT=Trebuchet MS][SIZE=2]£0.00[/SIZE][/FONT][FONT=Trebuchet MS][SIZE=2]0.0%[/SIZE][/FONT] [/code] Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Frijjbest Posted July 1, 2011 Author Share Posted July 1, 2011 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mister magoo Posted July 1, 2011 Share Posted July 1, 2011 Re: Frijjbest's (best?) system Gday player I wish you luck with your system amigo and welcome :welcome Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Frijjbest Posted July 1, 2011 Author Share Posted July 1, 2011 Re: Frijjbest's (best?) system Thanks! A Singapoor start for the system (sorry! :)) with a loser. Nothing til later tonight so I'll be back on Monday for a full update and more selections. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
conrad8000 Posted July 1, 2011 Share Posted July 1, 2011 Re: Frijjbest's (best?) system looking forward to seeing your first rounds of results mate... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
twinny Posted July 1, 2011 Share Posted July 1, 2011 Re: Frijjbest's (best?) system good luck with this:hope Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BookiesNightmare Posted July 1, 2011 Share Posted July 1, 2011 Re: Frijjbest's (best?) system Looks interesting good luck :ok Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Frijjbest Posted July 1, 2011 Author Share Posted July 1, 2011 Re: Frijjbest's (best?) system I'll submit the full stats on Monday since I have no Excel at home :beer Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Frijjbest Posted July 1, 2011 Author Share Posted July 1, 2011 Re: Frijjbest's (best?) system Not a bad start at all. No idea why Bohemians were priced so high since I had it as about 40% chance? Ah well can't complain! Soccer / Monaghan Utd v Shelbourne : Over/Under 2.5 goals01-Jul-11 21:00 01-Jul-11 21:58 1.60Soccer / Monaghan Utd v Shelbourne : Match Odds01-Jul-11 21:00 01-Jul-11 21:55 2.70Soccer / Waterford v Longford : Over/Under 2.5 goals01-Jul-11 19:45 01-Jul-11 21:50 1.54Soccer / Limerick v Mervue Utd : Over/Under 2.5 goals01-Jul-11 19:45 01-Jul-11 21:50 2.55Soccer / Athlone v Wexford Youths : Over/Under 2.5 goals01-Jul-11 19:45 01-Jul-11 21:35 1.42Soccer / Athlone v Wexford Youths : Match Odds01-Jul-11 19:45 01-Jul-11 21:34 2.32Soccer / Dundalk v Bohemians : Match Odds01-Jul-11 19:45 01-Jul-11 21:33 5.89Soccer / Bray v Sligo Rovers : Over/Under 2.5 goals01-Jul-11 19:45 01-Jul-11 21:27 -2.00Soccer / Dundalk v Bohemians : Over/Under 2.5 goals01-Jul-11 19:45 01-Jul-11 21:23 -2.00Soccer / Galway Utd v UCD : Over/Under 2.5 goals01-Jul-11 19:45 01-Jul-11 20:19 -2.00Soccer / Tanjong Pagar Utd v Geylang Utd : Over/Under 2.5 goals01-Jul-11 12:30 01-Jul-11 14:23 -2.00 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BookiesNightmare Posted July 1, 2011 Share Posted July 1, 2011 Re: Frijjbest's (best?) system Bohemians was a suprise tbh i had Dundalk to win on a single, Because Bohemians had a friendly during the week against dundee utd some players wouldnt be match fit.And Dundalk score 11 goals past 2 games. Oh well.:lol Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
orhane Posted July 4, 2011 Share Posted July 4, 2011 Re: Frijjbest's (best?) system 10 units profit looks good. great start, Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Frijjbest Posted July 4, 2011 Author Share Posted July 4, 2011 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Frijjbest Posted July 4, 2011 Author Share Posted July 4, 2011 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mulkis Posted July 4, 2011 Share Posted July 4, 2011 Re: Frijjbest's (best?) system Hi Frijjbest, Your system looks interesting. It is Poisson, istn't it? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Frijjbest Posted July 4, 2011 Author Share Posted July 4, 2011 Re: Frijjbest's (best?) system Hi Mulkis - no poisson in this one although I have dabbled with it in previous systems. It looks for previous occurences of goals scored/conceded and applies a multiplier based on the opposing teams relative strength (My strength score is kind of a modified Elo system) to weight the data accordingly. A clean sheet and/or a goal agaisnt a top team is worth more for example. A teams results in the last 2 games could be 1-0, 1-1. That'd be 1 goal scored in 100% of games. If the 2nd game was a better team - 1.25 modifier say then my weighting would come out with 1 goal scored 87.5% of the time and 2 goals 12.5%. It's slightly more complicated than that but that is the basics. Both bets in the Singapore game were awful. 5-1 away win costing me £4 and putting the system into negative overall. :@ Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mulkis Posted July 4, 2011 Share Posted July 4, 2011 Re: Frijjbest's (best?) system And have you backtested it? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Frijjbest Posted July 5, 2011 Author Share Posted July 5, 2011 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Frijjbest Posted July 5, 2011 Author Share Posted July 5, 2011 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
angeal Posted July 5, 2011 Share Posted July 5, 2011 Re: Frijjbest's (best?) system What is good about your system is you are using small stakes as a test making it real and being accountable here. This provides the benefit of focus and the chance to get feedback. As you indicate only one match worth looking at today and I hope you are correct with both bets. Will follow this thread - best of luck :hope Al Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Frijjbest Posted July 5, 2011 Author Share Posted July 5, 2011 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
angeal Posted July 5, 2011 Share Posted July 5, 2011 Re: Frijjbest's (best?) system Circiuma V Goias under 2.5 being layed significantly - now 2.1 when I took the odds 22.47pm, as I agree with you but all will become clear in the morning! Just looked back to 1.94 very starange maybe lucky for a change in getting good odds time will tell. Al Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
angeal Posted July 6, 2011 Share Posted July 6, 2011 Re: Frijjbest's (best?) system I was lucky with the price and result 2-0 Cirima V Goais - that must be a first I have ever hit a peak price when betting! :D Mixed results for you only a small impact better luck today. Al Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Frijjbest Posted July 6, 2011 Author Share Posted July 6, 2011 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
angeal Posted July 6, 2011 Share Posted July 6, 2011 Re: Frijjbest's (best?) system I would have ignored the Nigata Koku - to close to call hence the odds Interesting your call on Home United it was a draw last year so :hope for you Rest are tonight and if get chance will look at later Al Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Frijjbest Posted July 7, 2011 Author Share Posted July 7, 2011 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Frijjbest Posted July 7, 2011 Author Share Posted July 7, 2011 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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Frijjbest Posted July 11, 2011 Author Share Posted July 11, 2011 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Frijjbest Posted July 11, 2011 Author Share Posted July 11, 2011 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Donkson Posted July 12, 2011 Share Posted July 12, 2011 Re: Frijjbest's (best?) system What an awesome weekend that was, nice work. When you say purely statistical, are you just using results and goals scored, or are you adding playing stats in as well? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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