Flat Racing 1st July

[chris34]

2.20 Sandown Doc Hay looks the tough nut to crack and I dont like backing short priced favourites but i cant see the 7/4 sticking around for long looks a massive price in my opinion. He has been in rapid improvement since switched yards and since been campaigned over 5f. Won with plenty of ease last time out another 7lb higher here but still 3lb ahead of the handicapper and aslong as the faster ground doesnt cause a problem he will prove hard to beat from an inform yard. Macidllion won last time out but would prefer the going to be a lot softer than this I feel and the other potential threat could come from Ritual who hasnt been seen for 8 months but was progressing well but yard form is very concerning lot of short priced beaten horses recently. 4pt win Doc Hay 7/4 bet365 5.05 Sandown Not sure Nibani can be supported until showing a little more conviction in a finish. Kitty Wells trys this trip for the first time and on breeding she should get it and is unexposed and open to improvement aslong as last time out effort was just disappointing because it was run at a dawdle and no other reason but he also meets another unexposed runner who has proven well being recently and that is Roberto Pegasus who won last time out and I wrote this about him last time out; Not a race I want to be getting to heavily involved in with severals these in form and running well but Roberto Pegasus might be a handicap blot aslong as he is fit to do himself justice tonight. On breeding wouldnt have wanted 1m2f on debut but needed every yard of it extra 2f surely has to be in his favour on that evidence and although that win came on soft ground relatives have done their winning on firm ground so that shouldnt be a problem. A mark of 74 is very lenient with the 3rd placed horse in that maiden Shallow Bay winning off a mark of 74 and placed off a mark of 84 twice in some hot handicaps this season. Also the 4th horse won next time out in a maiden and has been given a rating of 76 and he was nearly 8 lengths behind that day so a mark of 74 may be a big blot. Phelan yard are just about running to form and have had several placed horses. This race looks a lot weaker than that he was expected to make his return in, and the fact that there is now some cut in the ground is another plus. The yard have had a few runners go close including the admirable Ermyn Lodge at Ascot this week. Was made to work reasonably hard but would have learnt plenty from that and also should strip fitter again, will be interesting to see if faster ground will suit (has been pulled out of fast ground before) but is related to a very useful fast ground horse. Yard remains in good form for a small yard and a 4lb rise doesnt seem excessive for an unexposed improving sort that can only have more to come. 2pt win Roberto Pegasus 5/1 vc

[georgeCOSTANZA]

Re: Flat Racing 1st July

Sport	Horse Racing
Event	Doncaster 14:00
Selection	Numeral
Strength	1/10
Date	01/07/2011
Bookmaker/Price	Bet365 @ 0.00
Reasoning	Unseated rider LTO but capable of taking this race. Finished 2010 with a 2nd place effort at Goodwood to stablemate Avonmore Star who went on to finish 2nd in a Class 2 next time out followed by a 1st in a Novice Auction Stakes beating Chevise, then 5th by 3L in a Group 3 a month and 5 days after defeating the selection. Debut run was at Newmarket, running on well from inside the final furlong for 7th. He unseated his rider LTO because a rival clipped heels, fell, and hampered the selection. He was running well in the closing stages and should be even better this time out.