Drawsandmore Posted August 21, 2011 Author Share Posted August 21, 2011 Re: Another crazy draws for profit thread? I originally waited until the strike rate was at a "realistic" 33% before posting the table below, but due to a good weekend the figures are all a bit surreal! It can't possibly last, but it's certainly a very promising start, and is a good place to be when the inevitable bad run kicks in :clap Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
froment Posted August 21, 2011 Share Posted August 21, 2011 Re: Another crazy draws for profit thread? Wow, that's great start, congratulations! :clap And :hope for bad run to delay as much as possible! ;) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Drawsandmore Posted August 21, 2011 Author Share Posted August 21, 2011 Re: Another crazy draws for profit thread? Many thanks for your good wishes and kind words Froment. Whatever happens, the bad run can't start until Friday at the earliest as there are no selections before then. Currently there are 5 selections next weekend, but this may change depending on the midweek results in the Conference. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Drawsandmore Posted August 24, 2011 Author Share Posted August 24, 2011 Re: Another crazy draws for profit thread? There are 4 selections on Saturday, and another on Monday. I will post Saturdays bets on Friday night, or if I can't get online, Saturday morning latest. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Drawsandmore Posted August 26, 2011 Author Share Posted August 26, 2011 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Belux Posted August 27, 2011 Share Posted August 27, 2011 Re: Another crazy draws for profit thread? Good luck for the season. I intend to follow this thread! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Drawsandmore Posted August 27, 2011 Author Share Posted August 27, 2011 Re: Another crazy draws for profit thread? Good luck for the season. I intend to follow this thread! Not with real money this weekend I hope! 100% losers :( There is one bet on Monday...I'll post it once the market has had a chance to settle down. I'll update the profit/loss table after the match on Monday. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Drawsandmore Posted August 29, 2011 Author Share Posted August 29, 2011 Re: Another crazy draws for profit thread? Just one bet today BetDateHomeAwayOddsStakeWith2229-Aug-11SouthportBarrow3.46 4.00Pinnacle :hope Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Drawsandmore Posted August 29, 2011 Author Share Posted August 29, 2011 Re: Another crazy draws for profit thread? Sadly, another loser! :sad But overall, I'm pleased with the way it is going. This years winning and losing bets, along with the strike rate in the table below, are an almost perfect match of the previous 5 seasons in August. Let's hope that September is as profitable! :hope Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Belux Posted August 30, 2011 Share Posted August 30, 2011 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Drawsandmore Posted August 31, 2011 Author Share Posted August 31, 2011 Re: Another crazy draws for profit thread? Hi Belux, I'm glad your betting portfolio recovered the losses for you. :D Given the limited fixture list this weekend, surprisingly it looks as if there will be 6 selections this weekend...Let's hope we can get at least two draws up, and recover some of last weeks losses! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Drawsandmore Posted September 2, 2011 Author Share Posted September 2, 2011 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Belux Posted September 3, 2011 Share Posted September 3, 2011 Re: Another crazy draws for profit thread? Good luck!! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Drawsandmore Posted September 4, 2011 Author Share Posted September 4, 2011 Re: Another crazy draws for profit thread? Another disappointing weekend, :( Just 1 winner in the last 12 bets!!! Let's hope that's the bad run over for now... On the plus side, we're still in profit, and it looks like there are a lot of bets next week. :hope Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Drawsandmore Posted September 8, 2011 Author Share Posted September 8, 2011 Re: Another crazy draws for profit thread? There are a lot of bets this week...NINE!! :eek I'll post them all up tomorrow night, (after I've raided the piggy bank). Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moggis Posted September 9, 2011 Share Posted September 9, 2011 Re: Another crazy draws for profit thread? Good luck with this Draws. I was very intrigued to see you say that theres 9 selections this week....so I had to look at the prices and work out what they might be. Heres the thing,I have found 8 draw prices that I beleive are either clear value or closer to the true odds as anything else....BUT 6 of them are only at good old Victor Chandler! there is 1 "value" draw that is available from more than 1-Luton at 3s. it seems to me that if your system threw up charlton v cherries then it must have charlton v exeter? The one that interests me the most is city v wigan!It seems to me that ANY ratings system would have to have 13-2 as a value pick!!? however I would say that the 0-0 and 1-1 on betfair were even better value.. Can I just say that,if for any reason,anything Ive written is out of order(what with it being on someone elses thread and I have mentioned a couple of possible picks)please let me know by saturday evening...and I will punish myself by watching the x-factor all the way through-6 minute ad breaks and all:sad Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Drawsandmore Posted September 9, 2011 Author Share Posted September 9, 2011 Re: Another crazy draws for profit thread? Hi Moggis, Thank you for taking the time to read and comment on my thread. Do you remember my contribution to the "value" thread? And my assertion that you should always bet value...Well the value in this thread is not actually in the individual matches. Sometimes it will be, but that is not the selection criteria. The value, (if indeed there is value in my selections, I'll find out at the end of the season!), comes from the fact that over previous seasons, the system typically finds in excess of 30% winners. I've analysed the odds of all my selections, (winners and losers, the average odds are the same for both) and given that the bestish average odds are 3.5 I should be profitable at the end of the season. Sometimes it'll throw up matches that look ridiculous, both before and after the event, but I'm gonna stick with it and judge the success or otherwise at the end of the year, (or the end of my bank! :(). None of your suggestions are the same as mine this week, but that certainly doesn't mean you're wrong with regard to them being value. No problem with you mentioning other matches here either, it's always good to see the way other people reason. ps Nobody should have to sit through the X-Factor!!! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moggis Posted September 9, 2011 Share Posted September 9, 2011 Re: Another crazy draws for profit thread? you have no idea how relieved I am! And I confess I am now even more intrigued to know your selections...... btw I also had charlton v bournemouth as a draw and I think the start that charlton have made is very impressive indeed considering the wholesale changes they made.. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Drawsandmore Posted September 9, 2011 Author Share Posted September 9, 2011 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Drawsandmore Posted September 11, 2011 Author Share Posted September 11, 2011 Re: Another crazy draws for profit thread? And I thought Mansfield v Newport was the best value draw of the weekend...5 - 0 :wall And following the weekend above, the system is in the red for the first time! :eyes It is still early days yet though, so just as I didn't get too excited at the beginning when it got off to a flyer, I'm buggered if I'm going to get too depressed following a run of poor results...That's what the bank is there for! :eek Having said that, I'm hoping the tide will turn on Tuesday...Only two bets which I'll post up Tuesday morning latest. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Drawsandmore Posted September 13, 2011 Author Share Posted September 13, 2011 Re: Another crazy draws for profit thread? BetDateHomeAwayOddsStakeWith3813-Sep-11ChesterfieldBury3.51 4.00Pinnacle3913-Sep-11MacclesfieldMorecambe3.56 4.00Pinnacle 2 draws please! :hope Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snye_sz Posted September 13, 2011 Share Posted September 13, 2011 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Drawsandmore Posted September 13, 2011 Author Share Posted September 13, 2011 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Drawsandmore Posted September 14, 2011 Author Share Posted September 14, 2011 Re: Another crazy draws for profit thread? Woo hoo....Back in profit, I'll try not to spend it all at once!! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snye_sz Posted September 14, 2011 Share Posted September 14, 2011 Re: Another crazy draws for profit thread? Thank you for the quick respond, Drawsandmore. As you said so, the numbers involved when looking at individual divisions is so small. But, from what you showed up there, if we don't divide it by season but leagues, it shows that Prem. and Cham. are more profitable. What I prefer to say is that when the league level is more higher, "NO losing" is more important to compititors, and results to more draws. So is there any "leagues' weight factor" in your system? maybe it can help. At last, Congratulations to last two bets and sorry for my poor English, I hope what i said just make sence.:rollin Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Drawsandmore Posted September 14, 2011 Author Share Posted September 14, 2011 Re: Another crazy draws for profit thread? Hi again snye_sz...I understand you, your English is fine, and what you say does make sense to me. The spread sheet I use does allow me to change the weighting factor by division, (and by doing that, I can improve the performance in all the divisions). However, it just doesn't feel right to me!...I need it to be logical, and for me to understand the logic. I can data mine/farm, changing various figures in a random way to my hearts content, but I need to feel it is structured logically. I am currently working on, (and back testing) an "improved" spreadsheet, and it does seem to confirm your suggestion that the further down the divisions I rate, the smaller my edge becomes. But I shall definitely stick with the current version for the rest of this season. It looks like there will be 7 bets this weekend...2 of them are in the Conference :$ Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Drawsandmore Posted September 16, 2011 Author Share Posted September 16, 2011 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Drawsandmore Posted September 20, 2011 Author Share Posted September 20, 2011 Re: Another crazy draws for profit thread? Right then...I'll explain where the tables have gone later, But there is one bet tonight. Conf. Cambridge v Ebbsfleet - 4 point stake - Draw - Pinnacle - 3.78 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Drawsandmore Posted September 20, 2011 Author Share Posted September 20, 2011 Re: Another crazy draws for profit thread? Conf. Cambridge v Ebbsfleet - 4 point stake - Draw - Pinnacle - 3.78 Final score 2-0, so a loser to end this thread on :cry ...However, unless it is deemed to be after eventing, (unlikely as I'm actually showing a small loss!) I shall be taking the results over to a new thread...I'm not giving up on this until the bank has gone! Call me wreckless, but I still believe. :loon Unfortunately my liberal use of Excel tables has clogged the thread up to such an extent that it is grinding to a halt, (apologies to the Moderators, and thank you for your help and assistance BillyHills and Froment). In addition to the thinking/methodology behind this thread, I have left all the tables that included bets to maintain the integrity of the proofing. In the new thread I only intend to use two Excel tables, (both will be in the first post). One will be the record of all of the bets in this thread to date, and the other will be updated weekly with the current profit or loss, yield etc. All subsequent bets and match results will be in text format only...Sadly, no more pretty colours. All I need now is a really good title for the new thread...I did toy with "It's not after eventing, honest!" But have decided on "Draws for profit...Pt.II" Always the optimist :rollin Hope to see you there. (six bets at the weekend ;)) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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