Another crazy draws for profit thread?

[Drawsandmore]

I have posted a couple of threads on here previously with limited success…They actually both lost, so perhaps “limited success” is a bit of a stretch! However, this time I fully expect this thread to show a profit in the short term at least, and I'm more than a little hopeful that it will be profitable in the long term too. In the short term, I will be taking advantage of as many “free bets” as I can get. I know they all have various conditions attached, but if I’m selective, disciplined and careful, I reckon I should easily be able to get 60 bets for the price of 50! Frankly with those odds in my favour, trying to find draws by sticking pins in the fixture list should be profitable! And, if I’m not in profit at that point, I’ll at least have proven that the system is rubbish without incurring any serious losses. However, before I post the selections on here and “unleash” it on the unsuspecting bookmakers, (because I am only going to get one chance of live-testing a system with the safety net of the free bets), I'd appreciate it if any of you would give me your opinion on the figures in post 2. I am fully aware that the sample size is smaller than ideal, but 240ish bets per season is all the system comes up with. My own thinking is along these lines: It’s a bit volatile, but in 4 out of 5 years it has found around 5% more (or better) draws than betting blind would. And the performance does seem to be moving in the right direction. The longest losing/winning run is suggesting to me that 4 point level stakes betting from an initial 100 point bank is aggressive but not suicidal. However, if I can double the bank to 200 points I would probably increase my stake to 6 points per bet…Effectively reducing the stake to 3% of the bank, but increasing the actual stake and the losing run I can handle to 33 bets. By betting at the best price available across all bookmakers during actual live paper trials last season, I actually increased the average winning S/P to 3.52…Enough not to lose money even if my strike rate falls back to 2006/07 levels. However, I don’t like the way I’m going to look like a right tit if I’ve missed something really obvious in the table below, or the performance level crashes and burns on here next season! So all you mathematicians, statisticians and punters, save me from myself and tell me why I shouldn’t go ahead with this! Ps If you don't, I’ll then proceed to bore you to tears with some of the details of the system, ‘cos we’ve still got 6 weeks to kill before the season starts.

[Drawsandmore]

Re: Another crazy draws for profit thread? Struggling to format the table...Back in a bit! By the way, the first four columns are the actual results in all English divisions, from the Prem. through to the Conference, the remaining columns are how the system performed.

[Drawsandmore]

[Drawsandmore]

Re: Another crazy draws for profit thread? Hmmm...It appears that backing the draw isn't very popular at the moment! :rollin

[Drawsandmore]

Re: Another crazy draws for profit thread? Despite the lack of interest, I'm going to post all of my draw selections for the coming year in this thread. They are all based on my own version of Power Ratings, in which each team has a seperate home and away rating. The ratings are then adjusted after each match according to the result and the strength of the opposition. So, if we use last seasons game between Manchester United and Liverpool played on 19th September: Man. Utd. home rating = 10 Liverpool away rating = 9 In this example one point equals one goal, therefore the system predicted that Man Utd would win by one goal, and as that was the result, (3-2 to Man. Utd). The ratings for both teams remain the same, However, if Man Utd had beaten Liverpool by 2 goals the respective ratings would then be 10.5 and 8.5. If the match had been a draw, the ratings would be 9.5 for both teams. If Liverpool had won by one goal, the revised ratings would have been Man Utd 9 and Liverpool 10 etc Obviously these are not my real ratings, and no allowance is made in this example for the class versus form conundrum, but it shows the principal behind what is a very simple (but I believe effective) system. I'm not claiming it as original, it is just my own take on a fairly common idea. Anyway, I will be back later in the week to post the first four bets of the season.

[froment]

Re: Another crazy draws for profit thread? Hey, Drawsandmore, I haven't seen this thread before, I missed it somehow... Strategies aiming for draw usually fascinate me, so I'll follow thta with interest. Apart from your thread, there's also Maybe's one on MLS draws, you might want to take a look. As for your rating system, would you tell me what is criteria for match to be picked - both teams must have exactly the same ratings, or there is a certain allowance, for example +-0.5 or 1 difference? I mean, in above example, would Man Utd vs. Liverpoll qualify as pick? And indeed I think your rating system should include some parameter to differentiate quality of teams - draw against average team does not have the same importance as draw against top team, etc.; maybe, instead of adding / subtracting the entire goal, as you did in above example, you should first multiply it by some factor which shows comparison of teams' level - if you believe they're the same level, factor is 1; if oposing team was higher level, factor should be bigger than 1, and vice versa, so that way, results against better teams carry on more weight. That's just my idea, of course, which also may be flawed - for example, what is criteria to decide if teams are level quality, or which team is better, since that may change throughout the season... Anyway, good luck with your strategy, looking forward to results! :ok

[Mulkis]

Re: Another crazy draws for profit thread? I like people posting strategies here:ok Despite most of the strategies fail, it is always a source for inspiration. And it is always interesting to learn how others punters approach all the statistics behind the sports. Drawsomemore, just go on with your testing! PS: And your system sounds like modified Elo. Isnt it?

[Drawsandmore]

Re: Another crazy draws for profit thread? Hi Froment and Mulkis, thank you for your interest and good wishes. I will answer your question first Mulkis…In the past, (about 5 or 6 years ago) I did try using ELO ratings. Whilst they were quite good at predicting the result, I was never able to find a way to consistently beat the bookies with them…My thinking was that ELO ratings are fairly popular, and also understood by many people, (including the bookmakers!). Therefore, regardless of how good or bad they might be at predicting the outcome of a match, there is not much chance of finding value in the selections because too many people will be backing the same result! Also, if I’m being completely honest, I’m not the most mathematically gifted person on this forum! So I wasn’t able to understand why I was using win expectancy, multiplying or dividing to the power of whatever, or why there was an arbitrary (to me at least), 100 points advantage for the home team. I’m not putting ELO ratings down here, (or indeed anyone that currently uses them)…Just explaining why I don’t. So, to answer your questions Froment, what do I do? Well as already explained, I wanted a system that was unique(ish) and in which I could fully understand all of the mathematics! Additionally I also wanted to rate all teams separately home and away, and for the figures to be relevant throughout all the divisions I rate…ie The top rated team in the Premier League would have a significantly higher rating than the top rated team in the Conference, meaning the figures are transferable across divisions and seasons. Racing & Football Outlook produce figures along these lines, but these figures are in the public domain, and therefore to my way of thinking, not likely to have a lot of value in them. Plus, I haven’t got a clue what formulae or information they use to arrive at their figures, so I sure as Hell ain’t going to be able to understand them!!! So to my attempt at a system…In this simple example, let’s say the rating for the home team (A) is 100 points and the away team (B) is 80 points…If we assume one goal is equal to 10 points, my prediction is that team A should win by 2 goals, and if that is the outcome, both ratings remain unchanged. However, if the final result is 1–0, then using 10 points as the value of a goal, Team A would have a new rating of 95 and team B would be rated at 85…(original rating of team A added to the original rating of team B…100+80=180…minus the goal difference of 10 points, 180-10=170…Divided by two equals 85 points per team…plus the 10 points for Team A who won by one goal). That all looks a bit of a mess written down, but hopefully the logic is clear?! Obviously these aren’t my real ratings, but it is the principle that I use for them…It’s all very simple stuff really, but the real fun starts when we think about what the ratings are trying to tell us!! Suppose Team A is Manchester United and Team B is Fulham…2-0 to United is the prediction, and 2-0 to United is the result…all perfectly reasonable and if they played each other the following week, it would be no great surprise if United again won by 2 goals. But let’s pretend United had an off day in the first match and Fulham played out of their skin, (and the ref didn't play 57 minutes of injury time!) Final score 0-2! Using my simple logic, United are now rated at 80 and Fulham are rated at 100, so if they could actually play each other again the following week at Old Trafford, the prediction is that Fulham will win by two goals!!! Not impossible, but I would expect the class of United to show through, so this type of rating system has to incorporate a way of allowing for the difference between class and form…But you will have to work that out for yourself, because whether my method is good or bad, it is the only “edge” I’ve got! As for the “draw prediction” element of the system, I use a small allowance…The two teams don’t need to have exactly the same rating, but the ratings do need to be pretty similar…As a rough guide about 1% difference in the ratings, so the earlier Man Utd v Liverpool example wouldn't have been a selection...This results in me predicting about one in ten matches ending as a draw. Sorry if I’ve waffled on a bit here, (and used waaay too many brackets!) lol, and apologies for being a bit secretive in places about the details, but I hope you will understand my reasons?

[froment]

Re: Another crazy draws for profit thread? Well, that's a very detailed reply, thanks! I didn't think you could aim for ratings applicable across various divisions, but that's a good approach for long-term use of your strategy, although it complicates calculation; I had to read it twice to get it! ;) Anyway, that's interesting approach, good luck, and looking forward to see its results! With only one pick out of 10 matches, you'll have to be patient...

[Mulkis]

Re: Another crazy draws for profit thread?

With only one pick out of 10 matches' date=' you'll have to be patient...[/quote'] Drawsandmore, why you just not backtesting it instead? Or you have done it already?

[Drawsandmore]

Re: Another crazy draws for profit thread? Hi Mulkis, In answer to your question, I have back tested the system over the last five years, (the results are in the table in the third post of this thread). Additionally the last season was actually live tested. I didn't place any bets, but I recorded the best odds available at the time to see if, or by how much, I could increase the yield compared to just using Bet365 (the odds I used when back testing). The average Bet365 odds last year on all winning selections was 3.35 last season, but by taking the best available odds I was able to increase this to 3.52...It's a bit of a ball ache trawling through the odds and having to manage more than one betting account, but I'm sure it will be time well spent.

[Mulkis]

Re: Another crazy draws for profit thread? Ups... sorry... somehow missed your table. But could you please elaborate on the numbers, since if your average odds for 10/11 was 3.35 (3.52) but strike rate 84/246 how did you manage to be profitable? At first glance the result should be something 197-246=-48$ negative (on flat betting). The same aplies to other seasons.

[froment]

Re: Another crazy draws for profit thread?

if your average odds for 10/11 was 3.35 (3.52) but strike rate 84/246 how did you manage to be profitable? At first glance the result should be something 197-246=-48$ negative (on flat betting).

You don't calculate 197-246; you got 197 as profit (2.35 * 84), but then you don't subtract all 246 matches, but only losing ones, 246-84 = 162, and then profit is 197-162 = 35, as shown in table. Or, other way round: his total return was 3.35 * 84 = 281, and total stakes 246; and then 281 - 246 = 35 again, so his tables and backtest are correct.

[Mulkis]

Re: Another crazy draws for profit thread? Yes it is obvious... my mistake. It looks like I need some break from numbers...:beer

[Drawsandmore]

Re: Another crazy draws for profit thread? Thanks again for your interest guys. Right...Time to post some selections and see if the table is formatted correctly!! Just two for now, with the other two tomorrow or Saturday.

Bet	Date	Home	Away	S/P	Stake	With
1	06-Aug-11	Charlton	Bournemouth	3.50	4.00	Betfred
2	06-Aug-11	Sheffield Weds	Rochdale	3.71	4.00	Pinnacle

Finally a word of warning...I will be backing every selection I post, (and I do expect to be in profit at the end of the season :eek) but just because I "expect" it, doesn't mean it won't all go belly up...Past performance is no guarantee of future success, or we'd all be millionaires.

[Drawsandmore]

[stan1962]

Re: Another crazy draws for profit thread? I agree all of these 4 matches have great potential as draws Good luck :hope

[Drawsandmore]

Re: Another crazy draws for profit thread?

I agree all of these 4 matches have great potential as draws Good luck :hope

Thank you Stan1962...If I use my "knowledge" of football rather than my system, I don't really see any result other than a win for Shrewsbury, and I wouldn't be too happy about Wycombe v Scunthorpe (promoted and relegated teams playing each other this early in the season). But I've backed them both anyway...I've got to give the system a chance !!

[Drawsandmore]

Re: Another crazy draws for profit thread?

Thank you Stan1962...If I use my "knowledge" of football rather than my system' date=' I don't really see any result other than a win for Shrewsbury, and I wouldn't be too happy about Wycombe v Scunthorpe (promoted and relegated teams playing each other this early in the season).[/quote'] Anyway, a profitable start for the system...Happily I didn't rely on my sporting knowledge!! I'd prefer to wait until there have been a few more games before adding a table with the running totals, yields etc. It's good to be in profit, but any figures are all a bit meaningless after only four results.

[stan1962]

Re: Another crazy draws for profit thread? A great start nevertheless :clap:clap

[Drawsandmore]

[NIGWAFC]

Re: Another crazy draws for profit thread? Hi Draws Im going to keep a keen interest in this - I like the work youve put in. :ok Out of curiosity, if the system produces no more than 4/5 selections each week, what strike rate - going off last year - do you hit? In other words how often do you find that 50% of your selections are correct? Was just wondering in case it was worth considering small perms also, ie doubles - are have you already considered this? Cheers Nig

[Drawsandmore]

Re: Another crazy draws for profit thread? Hi Nig, Thank you for your interest and good wishes. Over the five years that I have figures for, the system averages about 6 bets per week, (there would have been 6 this week if the Tottenham match hadn't been called off). The strike rate is just shy of 1 in 3...Although marginally better than 1 in 3 the last two years, (see the table in post three for the full breakdown). So sadly, last weeks performance was not representative...If I could consistently find 50% winners at 3.50ish, I'd retire tomorrow! I only back singles myself, as I am always trying to get the very best price on each bet, and it is not usually possible to achieve that using only one bookmaker...Though Pinnacle do appear to be pretty damned good.

[Drawsandmore]

Re: Another crazy draws for profit thread? An encouraging start :clap Barring postponements, there should be three matches on Tuesday this week.

[Drawsandmore]

[Drawsandmore]

Re: Another crazy draws for profit thread? A disappointing night, but at least the win % is now at a realistic, (and hopefully sustainable,) level in the long term. I suspect the yield is a bit on the high side at the moment...The average winning odds are currently a frankly ridiculous 3.65, which I expect to settle down to around 3.50 in the long run. It's still very early days, but overall a decent enough start.

[b10111]

Re: Another crazy draws for profit thread? Not a bad strategy but you take too much risk on games where some teams have more than 50% chance of winning and play open football like games involving Southampton and Wimbledon. Granted a draw can be obtained even in open matches but I think its always good to favour teams that play hoof ball:rollin Anyway some tips for this weekend Arsenal vs Liverpool Nailed on banker Draw Montpellier vs Rennes Bourdeaux vs auxerre

[Drawsandmore]

[Drawsandmore]

Re: Another crazy draws for profit thread? Thank you for your interest b10111 My "strategy" (such as it is), relies only on the figures in my spreadsheet, and takes no account of playing styles etc. My figures have Arsenal v Liverpool as a relatively close match, but outside the range that I use for predicting the draw...I'm not sure that many Arsenal, (and to a lesser extent Liverpool), fans would agree that they play hoof ball though!

[Ronnie]

Re: Another crazy draws for profit thread? Good luck with this, I tend to bet on the draws too, doing a trixie each weekend. Only need to hit 2 winning weekends to show profit for the season, though tend to hit the double more often than not.