Jump Racing ~ 26th June

[mileni4uk]

Uttoxeter 4.20 Ouzbeck - Won the race last year off 142. Races off 143, but will have to saddle top weight this time. Will probably go well without winning. Race seems to have a bit more depth. Grand Slam Hero - Use of claimer helps him race off 2lbs lower than last winning mark. Still I'd be surprised if he doesn't find few better handicapped. The Last Derby - Traveled best of all in Cork national. Traveled well in Irish National. With indexes (8.1f) (9.6f) in his pedigree I don't think he stays this trip. Would be a great bet if he's back to 3m, but not here. Would only have a chance if they go slow, but even then I don't think he is value. Gonebeyondrecall - Trip main worry. If he stays, he could be a danger to all, but no bet at the price. Probably a non-stayer. Brooklyn Brownie - On better terms with Ouzbeck and will have a chance this year if the ability is still there. Cornish Sett - Not the force of old. Probably best with a bit of cut these days and Wincantion win puts him up against it off current mark. Simply Smashing - Hit hard by handicapper for winning a weak Durham National. Won weak hunters chase and novice hurdle latest and despite being at the top of his game at the age of 11, should struggle off this mark. Go well without winning. Dom D'Orgeval - Won easily lto and has a chance here. Used to be very classy and should go well. I make him worthy of being fav in the race and will save stake on him. Gone To Lunch - Stamina is his forte and handicapper has given him outstanding chance off 126. The problem is he always stays on late. If this was 4m and he was running off 126, it would've made a great bet. They might just go too quick for him however. Go well without winning. Mizen Raven - Won a weak Cartmel handicap and 5lb higher than that over 3m4f represents an uphill task. Commemoration Day - Two wins in March and April put him on a high enough mark. Despite the revival joining Charlie Longsdon, I'd be surprised if he's capable of even a place in a race like this. Presentandcorrect - Never understood why Twiston-Davies doesn't try him in stamina tests like this. Lots of it in his pedigree and should go well. I'm not entirely sure about his attitude though and yard is more miss than hit lately. Ballyvesey - 4th in Becher and chased a progressive sort lto. This trip could be what he needs and still unexposed. Good chance, but could've done with Tom O'Brien on board. Chance will depend on how much booze O'Regan has had the previous night (or in the morning). Sea Wall - Better than ever when landing 2 handicaps last summer. McCoy takes over and had a decent spin last month. Probably not much better than current mark though and not really any value at the price. Keenan's Future - Stays this far and showed he still retains ability when landing a decent handicap at Aintree 2 weeks ago. Has placed off similar marks, but never won. Not my favorite yard either, so not really any kind of betting proposition at the price. Will go well though. Knighton Combe - Won 4 races in 2009, but not as good lately. Could run well at a price, but up against it off this mark in a race like this. The King Of Angels - Runner-up in this race in 2009. Left Jonjo and Caroline Bailey does well with other yard's outcasts. Beaten several times in pointers before a win 42 days ago. Difficult to win off current mark, but could have a place chance if running to 2009 form. Surenaga - Won and placed in military events at Sandown. Won 2 pointers after that. Going well when falling in good hunters chase at Stratford lto. Very good chance if none the worse for it. Form has taken new levels since moving over the water. Dom D'Orgeval 0.5pt win - 7/1 Bet365 PP Ballyvesey 0.5pt win - 10/1 Boyle WH Brooklyn Brownie 0.75pt EW - 16/1 Bet365 Surenaga 1pt EW - 25/1 Paddy VC

[mileni4uk]

Re: Jump Racing ~ 26th June Uttoxeter 3.15 Spice Bar 1pt EW - 14/1 Boyle Form has picked up since joining new yard and ran well for a long way after a break lto. Should strip fitter here and drop back to 2m will suit.