Flat Racing; Friday 10th June

[Lars]

15:15 York Beat The Rush ran well on seasonal reappearance last time over 1m6f, and shaped as the step up in trip would be one of benefit. He gets exactly that today racing over a trip of 2m, and even in a competitive handicap of this nature, he’s massive value I feel at a current price of 14/1. Julie Camacho’s gelding won two races at 1m4f last season, these were both small-fields and when taking the race by the scruff of the neck, which would have maybe been a concern to anyone backing him in this sort of race, where the lead may be difficult to obtain. However, last time he showed his adaptability with tactics by tracking the leaders and still running very respectably. Again, as showed in a couple of races in 2010, he was beaten by speedier horses over the 1m6f trip, but Beat The Rush stayed on well. The weather conditions last time were also quite adverse and had taken some of the pace out of the ground. Generally his best form had come on fast ground. Alongside this, it was his first run for 5 months and is entitled to have come on for that. He was quite well-backed last time, so connections obviously think a bit of him. He also has a Northumberland Plate entry, but will likely have to win this race for him to take part. I think that’s definitely possible. He does need to find a little bit more, but there should be progression from his first run of the season, and the step up in trip should also suit him. Fast ground will also be of benefit, although there is rain forecast, the surface should be on the faster side of good at least. 14/1 seems far too big I feel, and I reckon he should be more the 8/1 mark. This is a tough race though, but all in all, he should improve for the factors previously mentioned, and I’ll be disappointed with a poor run, with 4 places paid, he should be within them at least. Beat The Rush; 1.5pts EW @ 14/1 Bet365 (bog)

[Lars]