Jump Racing ~ Sunday 5th June

[Falbrav]

SURE JOSIE SURE 5.00 Perth. 0.5 points each way. Cheek-pieces go on today and that's enough for me to think she'll improve a few pounds through concentration. The trip's an issue but I think she'll stay and with the ground no problem and it looking a weakish event, she should be more than capable of being involved in the finish. 9/2 William Hill BOG

[Bathtime For Rupert]

Re: Jump Racing ~ Sunday 5th June 4.00 Perth - 1pt win Anay Car @ 5/1 (Bet365) - BOG This Howard Johnson trained French-bred 7yo looks well up to collecting a prize of this nature, and I feel this presents an ideal opportunity to get the gelding off the mark over hurdles. Anay Car has clearly been difficult to train, and has had a very lightly-raced career to date, with 10 starts over a time period of over 3 years. However, he's shown plenty of promise, and should be primed to strike now. Is related to plenty of jumps winners, and was quite well fancied on both starts in bumpers three years ago, but failed to deliver somewhat - finishing last of 11 when 4/1 at Musselburgh. He returned to the track in September of 2008 to record a promising hurdling debut, when, whilst beaten quite comfortably in the end, finished 5th of 13 behind Nikos Extra. He was pulled up on his next start, though, before showing potential again at Newcastle in February 2009, finishing a 10l 5th on heavy ground. Yet again he flopped on his next start when beaten 6fl over 2m5f at Perth. It looked like handicaps would be the way forward for the horse. However, he bounced back after another break in a novice hurdle at Sedgefield in September 2009, finishing a respectable 11l 4th behind Skylancer. For the first time, he managed to back up the run, running a solid handicap debut at Kelso over 18f. Just getting outdone by Still At Lunch and Cassius towards the end, finishing a well-clear 3rd. The winner is now rated 119 over hurdles (103 then), and the second went up to a mark of 121 before losing his form again. Anay Car wasn't seen until April this year, when falling at the 4th at Newcastle. However, he showed he still had ability at Perth on his latest start, when getting outstayed over 2m5f by subsequent flat winner Pokfulham (easily), and Couer De Fou. The concern is he did wander about quite badly in the latter stages, though I suspect this was a lot down to tiredness, and the drop back down to 2 miles should suit tomorrow. He's no risk-free bet - far from it - but he should be in the best position he's been in to win a hurdle. Fitness, trip and wellbeing look in order. Attitude and fragility are the concerns. However, this looks a weak race and I think he can win giving weight all round on quick ground. He will have to beat one of Gordon Elliott's typical Perth runners, but plenty of these have been beaten recently - and some at short prices - if he does, he won't have many more dangers in my opinion. His run last time was full of promise (making good headway from rear to lead 2 out before getting tired) and shaped as if coming back down in trip would be ideal.