Flat racing - June 1st

[jayalexander]

If anyone fancies taking a look over in the ATR System section, I recently completed a 50 day analysis of BF's. I split it down into AW, jumps, and flat. The AW came out the most profitable and there are several runners at Kempton who I fancy because of this and other reasons... 6:50 - Rebecca Romero. BF finished 2nd lto, Hughes in the saddle and has a 1 in 2 win rate for the trainer this year, both of which took place on this filly. 8:50 - Marzante. One of three BF's in this race. Steve Drowne takes this one for Roger Charlton, the two have a 19% win rate this year. Fitted with blinkers for the first time. 9:20 - Bubbly Bravehear. Apprentice handicaps were extremely profitable during the time I kept track of the system runners. Lucy Barry and Pat Phelan have a 2 in 4 win rate in 2011, plus she won on him in April.

[Lars]

Re: Flat racing - June 1st 16:50 Nottingham Heatherbird may need a bit further in time but I feel a mark of 75 for a horse like her is well within her scope and a more orthodox track like Nottingham will suit much better than Chester and I believe she’ll run well, in what is a competitive Fillies’ handicap. William Jarvis trains the 3yo, who previously held an Oaks entry and the step up to a mile will suit, especially as all her previous three efforts have come at 7f and two of them made it look a step up in trip was definitely warranted. The first of these came at Newmarket on her second start. It was a competitive maiden but connections obviously thought she could win, as she went off 2^nd fav and some sizable on-course bets were placed. She travelled well and made eye-catching headway before being beaten for toe by some more speedy rivals, including the useful looking Deity. Heatherbird wasn’t stopping at the finish by any means, and a step up would in my view, see her in a much better light. She was however, raced at 7f once again, this time at Chester. She was a bit awkward in the paddock and had to be led to the start, which can’t have helped her chances once bit. Once the race began she was slowly away and had a poor position on the outside, eventually being forced almost six wide. She stuck on fairly well from the back, but in truth, she probably lost the race before it began and once blowing the start. The fact she still ran quite well indicates that she definitely has ability. A more conventional track, like the galloping Nottingham circuit will surely suit her better too. She did seem to struggle a fair bit on the Chester track and its fairly well known that it is one which does often catch horses out. The form of these two races mentioned is hardly spectacular, with only 1 winner coming from the Newmarket race, and another solitary winner from the Chester race. However, Heatherbird is obviously quite well thought of by connections (hence the support/past Oaks entry) and I can definitely see her running well off this kind of mark on handicap debut. This Nottingham track will suit I feel, and Harry Bentley taking off 5lbs is very handy indeed. She does have form to prove, especially against some of the market principles. However, she’s a fairly big price and is still unexposed, comes from a top yard whose horses haven’t been running badly, especially from limited chances and I can see her running a big race, at odds of 9/1. Bigger available on Betfair but I’ll take my chances now. Heatherbird; 1.5pts EW @ 9/1 Paddy Power (bog)