Flat Racing; Sunday 22nd May

[Lars]

No UK flat racing... AGAIN. Bit of a scandal but there you go. However, found one that I really like, and posting it now as I'm out later. I was expecting something in the region of 10/1 for this, so I really have to take this price :loon 15:40 Curragh Priomhbhean looks a solid proposition in this big field handicap at the Curragh. She’s a lightly raced 4yo filly trained by Jim Bolger, with a fairly impressive strike rate. She’s won four times from eight starts, and was a progressive type throughout the season, although she did post a couple of below par efforts towards the back end of the season, however there are excuses for both and I think she has a cracking chance today. The selection has never run over today’s trip of 1m4f, but on breeding, running style and future race entries, it’s likely to suit. She has never won at a trip further than an extended 1m2f at Dundalk. That was a Conditions race and she managed to beat a rival rated 10lbs higher in the final strides. It was a fairly taking run, especially as it took her so long to get going, and it looked that an increase in distance would bring about more improvement. This view is supported by a couple of her other runs, including her victory at Tipperary over 9f earlier in her career. It took her an absolute age to get going, and needed rousting along a long way from home. Her stamina took over and she flew home to win quite nicely. Priomhbhean ended the season in listed races, and perhaps they were a step too far for her at that stage. She did perform with credit in the first of these Listed contests, but didn’t have the pace for the 10f contest, after being given a very positive ride. She stuck to her task when beaten and wasn’t stopping at the finish, it definitely wasn’t a dismal effort. Her season bowed out when well beaten in another Listed contest at Dundalk. That was over a mile, mind and that’s definitely a trip that’s too sharp for her. She didn’t really stand a chance. 1m4f will likely be her optimum trip, and that’s what she faces today. From past evidence, it will likely bring about some improvement. The switch back to Handicap’s will also be of benefit, as even though it’s a tough race, she’s unlikely to bump into some top-class horses like he did in the Listed races, such as Famous Name. Her best efforts have come on good to firm ground, which is another plus. She’s also entered in some Group 3 races over this 1m4f trip, so obviously she’s quite well thought of. Jim Bolger isn’t in bad form at the moment, with plenty of his horses running well. She isn’t drawn badly and will likely be able to settle just off the pace. She’s been off since November, but won first time up last season on debut, so perhaps she’s a horse that goes well fresh. I think she has a big chance of making the frame today. The 20/1 on offer today is absolutely huge in my view, as I was expecting it to be priced around 10/1, and I thought that price was value! She’ll likely go off a lot shorter, perhaps even in single figures. A maximum EW bet, with 4 places paid. I’m confident of a good run. Priomhbhean; 2.5pts EW @ 20/1 Boylesports (BOG)

[rustyltfc]

Re: Flat Racing; Sunday 22nd May The Curragh 2.10 - See You Smile - 1 pt e/w @ 33/1 (Boylesports) See You Smile is still quite a lightly raced filly, having only had 11 starts. Her one and only career win came on her seasonal debut last season after 218 days off the track. Tomorrow she makes her seasonal debut for 2011 after 212 days off the track, so hopefully she can produce a similar result to that one this time last year. That run was over 6 furlongs at Navan, the same trip she faces here tomorrow. The ground conditions at the moment say that it's Good to Firm at The Curragh at the moment. If this is the case then it'll be perfect for See You Smile, as she loves the good ground. However there's been plenty of rain on Saturday so I wouldn't be surprised to see the ground description change between now and race time tomorrow. See You Smile has never run on soft ground, so it's an unknown as to how she would handle it. Hopefully we'll have a dry morning tomorrow and the ground dries out from today's rain. See You Smile won that race mentioned above off a mark of 68, and while her follow up run was rather decent, she never really produced a good performance after that for the whole season. She was running off a mark of 79 at one stage, and now that it's back down to 70, it certainly appeals to me. Add in the fact that promising claimer Darren Egan takes off a further 7 pounds then See You Smile certainly looks to me running off a decent mark. Her draw in stall 10 looks ok, considering the last 2 winners of this race came from stalls 12 and 8 respectively, so stall 10 looks to be suitable for a prominant showing. I've decided to take Boylesports' 33/1 instead of Paddy Power's 25/1, despite the fact PP is paying 5 places compared to Boyles' 4 places. Fingers crossed for a decent run for my money. The Curragh 3.40 - Vivacious Vivienne - 1pt e/w @ 16/1 (Paddy Power) I've decided to have a punt on the winner of this race last year, Vivacious Vivienne. Vivacious Vivienne was highly progressive last year, starting her campaign off a mark of 77, and having won her final start of the year at Leopardstown, she began this season off a mark of 93. Further progress this season in Listed and Group company means she's running off a mark of 97 tomorrow, which is 15 pounds higher than the mark she won this race off last year. However, her win at Leopardstown at the back end of last season came off 88, and with Conor Hoban's 7 pound claim tomorrow, she virtually gets in here off a mark of 90, which is well within her ability in my opinion. Her draw tomorrow is not ideal, in box 20, but she won this last year from the widest draw of them all so she's capable of winning from there. Vivacious Vivienne has had 2 runs so far this year, in better quality races than this. Both have been over inadequate trips, so the return to this 1m4f trip tomorrow will definitely suit. The drop in class here tomorrow is also a positive for her chances. She has bits of form on all sorts of ground, so she should handle the conditions whether there's rain or not. Vivacious Vivienne is an extremely consistent sort, either winning or placing in 39% of her career starts (18 starts, 5 wins, 2 places), and I'm confident she can run another big race here tomorrow.