Flat Racing; Sunday 22nd May

Lars · May 21, 2011

No UK flat racing... AGAIN. Bit of a scandal but there you go. However, found one that I really like, and posting it now as I'm out later. I was expecting something in the region of 10/1 for this, so I really have to take this price :loon 15:40 Curragh Priomhbhean looks a solid proposition in this big field handicap at the Curragh. Sheâ€™s a lightly raced 4yo filly trained by Jim Bolger, with a fairly impressive strike rate. Sheâ€™s won four times from eight starts, and was a progressive type throughout the season, although she did post a couple of below par efforts towards the back end of the season, however there are excuses for both and I think she has a cracking chance today. The selection has never run over todayâ€™s trip of 1m4f, but on breeding, running style and future race entries, itâ€™s likely to suit. She has never won at a trip further than an extended 1m2f at Dundalk. That was a Conditions race and she managed to beat a rival rated 10lbs higher in the final strides. It was a fairly taking run, especially as it took her so long to get going, and it looked that an increase in distance would bring about more improvement. This view is supported by a couple of her other runs, including her victory at Tipperary over 9f earlier in her career. It took her an absolute age to get going, and needed rousting along a long way from home. Her stamina took over and she flew home to win quite nicely. Priomhbhean ended the season in listed races, and perhaps they were a step too far for her at that stage. She did perform with credit in the first of these Listed contests, but didnâ€™t have the pace for the 10f contest, after being given a very positive ride. She stuck to her task when beaten and wasnâ€™t stopping at the finish, it definitely wasnâ€™t a dismal effort. Her season bowed out when well beaten in another Listed contest at Dundalk. That was over a mile, mind and thatâ€™s definitely a trip thatâ€™s too sharp for her. She didnâ€™t really stand a chance. 1m4f will likely be her optimum trip, and thatâ€™s what she faces today. From past evidence, it will likely bring about some improvement. The switch back to Handicapâ€™s will also be of benefit, as even though itâ€™s a tough race, sheâ€™s unlikely to bump into some top-class horses like he did in the Listed races, such as Famous Name. Her best efforts have come on good to firm ground, which is another plus. Sheâ€™s also entered in some Group 3 races over this 1m4f trip, so obviously sheâ€™s quite well thought of. Jim Bolger isnâ€™t in bad form at the moment, with plenty of his horses running well. She isnâ€™t drawn badly and will likely be able to settle just off the pace. Sheâ€™s been off since November, but won first time up last season on debut, so perhaps sheâ€™s a horse that goes well fresh. I think she has a big chance of making the frame today. The 20/1 on offer today is absolutely huge in my view, as I was expecting it to be priced around 10/1, and I thought that price was value! Sheâ€™ll likely go off a lot shorter, perhaps even in single figures. A maximum EW bet, with 4 places paid. Iâ€™m confident of a good run. Priomhbhean; 2.5pts EW @ 20/1 Boylesports (BOG)

rustyltfc · May 21, 2011

Re: Flat Racing; Sunday 22nd May The Curragh 2.10 - See You Smile - 1 pt e/w @ 33/1 (Boylesports) See You Smile is still quite a lightly raced filly, having only had 11 starts. Her one and only career win came on her seasonal debut last season after 218 days off the track. Tomorrow she makes her seasonal debut for 2011 after 212 days off the track, so hopefully she can produce a similar result to that one this time last year. That run was over 6 furlongs at Navan, the same trip she faces here tomorrow. The ground conditions at the moment say that it's Good to Firm at The Curragh at the moment. If this is the case then it'll be perfect for See You Smile, as she loves the good ground. However there's been plenty of rain on Saturday so I wouldn't be surprised to see the ground description change between now and race time tomorrow. See You Smile has never run on soft ground, so it's an unknown as to how she would handle it. Hopefully we'll have a dry morning tomorrow and the ground dries out from today's rain. See You Smile won that race mentioned above off a mark of 68, and while her follow up run was rather decent, she never really produced a good performance after that for the whole season. She was running off a mark of 79 at one stage, and now that it's back down to 70, it certainly appeals to me. Add in the fact that promising claimer Darren Egan takes off a further 7 pounds then See You Smile certainly looks to me running off a decent mark. Her draw in stall 10 looks ok, considering the last 2 winners of this race came from stalls 12 and 8 respectively, so stall 10 looks to be suitable for a prominant showing. I've decided to take Boylesports' 33/1 instead of Paddy Power's 25/1, despite the fact PP is paying 5 places compared to Boyles' 4 places. Fingers crossed for a decent run for my money. The Curragh 3.40 - Vivacious Vivienne - 1pt e/w @ 16/1 (Paddy Power) I've decided to have a punt on the winner of this race last year, Vivacious Vivienne. Vivacious Vivienne was highly progressive last year, starting her campaign off a mark of 77, and having won her final start of the year at Leopardstown, she began this season off a mark of 93. Further progress this season in Listed and Group company means she's running off a mark of 97 tomorrow, which is 15 pounds higher than the mark she won this race off last year. However, her win at Leopardstown at the back end of last season came off 88, and with Conor Hoban's 7 pound claim tomorrow, she virtually gets in here off a mark of 90, which is well within her ability in my opinion. Her draw tomorrow is not ideal, in box 20, but she won this last year from the widest draw of them all so she's capable of winning from there. Vivacious Vivienne has had 2 runs so far this year, in better quality races than this. Both have been over inadequate trips, so the return to this 1m4f trip tomorrow will definitely suit. The drop in class here tomorrow is also a positive for her chances. She has bits of form on all sorts of ground, so she should handle the conditions whether there's rain or not. Vivacious Vivienne is an extremely consistent sort, either winning or placing in 39% of her career starts (18 starts, 5 wins, 2 places), and I'm confident she can run another big race here tomorrow.

Trotter · May 21, 2011

Re: Flat Racing; Sunday 22nd May Blimey, rusty..........I wish I'd read your post before sticking up my BBotD. If there has been plenty of rain that'll probably scupper her chances.........:@ Still, too late now so it'll have to be fingers crossed........if it turns into more of a test of stamina it'll suit the other two that I've mentionned. Irish 1000 Gns - Curr 4.15 - Emiyna - win at 6/1 BOG with Laddies Second favourite for the Irish 1000 - Emiyna is a lightly raced John Oxx filly with Johnny Murtagh on board. Showed good speed to sluice through the field and beat the consistant group class older filly, Lolly for Dolly, last time out. Had 3 runs - was beaten on her debut at 2 and won the next two, including that group 3 last time I reckon the favourite, Together, is worth taking on. Her second in the English guineas was a good performance but like the winner that day she came from behind and ran through horses who's been running into a strong headwind. It was the run of a stayer, like the winner. She looks an Oaks type and might be vulnerable to something with a turn of foot. Plus, horses don't win a Guineas when they've been beaten in their last 7 outings ? Third favourite is Banimpire. I've already had a couple of good wins on her but she's dropping back in trip and looks more of a stayer I'll take the chance that my choice will outspeed them in the finish

rustyltfc · May 22, 2011

Re: Flat Racing; Sunday 22nd May An article on the racing post iPhone app said that despite lots of rain today, the ground conditions remained good and that there's very little rain expected overnight and tomorrow morning, so the ground conditions should remain good to firm.

Quackers · May 22, 2011

Re: Flat Racing; Sunday 22nd May The return to action of a true superstar today in Goldikova :notworthy:notworthy I hope she wins and I am tempted by the 5/6

Stevet1859 · May 22, 2011

Re: Flat Racing; Sunday 22nd May 4:15 The Curragh: Chrysanthemum 2pts win 16/1 Paddy Power Chrysanthemum has only seem the racecourse twice and looking through some of the previous runnings of this race it often goes to a more experienced filly. However, Chrysanthemum looks very interesting. She made her debut in a Listed race and won that comfortably, so presumably her trainer David Watchman knew he had a very decent filly on his hands. The fact that she was also tuned up first time is a positive for this race. Chrysanthemum then beat Wild Wind in a Group 3 here with Banimpire for a second time well down the field. That form looks solid now that Banimpire has notched up a string of victories this season. While Banimpire has proved she has trained on, it is perhaps a little surprising that Banimpire is half the price of Chrysanthemum, and she is stepping back in trip here. To add weight to Chrysanthemum's case David Watchman won this in 2009 so he certainly knows what is required. Its quite an ask for Chrysanthemum first time up, however with a high draw also in her favour she looks overpriced. Price available at time of original post

Bathtime For Rupert · May 22, 2011

Re: Flat Racing; Sunday 22nd May 2.40 Curragh - 1pt win Alexander Pope @ 5/1 (VC) Alexander Pope is the most experienced runner in the field, and should be primed and ready to go back up in trip today. Took 3 runs to get off the mark, when drawing clear with a 96 rated horse. Hacked up by 7l on his next start at Dundalk. Didn't beat much, but the 2nd did win next time out. Went to Meydan for a 10f race, when he ran very credibly to be 6th of 14, staying on, behind Khawlah. He was the lowest rated horse in the field, with plenty of the runners in the low-mid 110s. The form looks rock solid. Came back to Ireland but it was over 7f, which is probably too short nowadays, and he tried to make all. Ended up finishing a close 3rd behind Imperial Rome. That horse ran a 5l 7th behind Tin Horse in the POULE D'ESSAI DES POULAINS at Longchamp - not beaten by Wootton Bassett for whatsoever. Oracle finished behind Alexander Pope on that occasion, but ran a great 3rd in the Irish 2000 Guineas yesterday. Form looks solid, back up in trip, should go very well indeed.

alexmac · May 22, 2011