Flat Racing; Saturday 21st May

[Lars]

16:50 York I was at Newbury when Baptist got in front on debut, it was a taking performance first time up, especially against a few well touted horses. The form of that race over 7f (the trip he encounters today) has worked out fairly well, with the runner up now rated 91 and the 3rd placed horse also winning. He was allotted a handicap mark of 85, but instead went straight to a Group 3, running over a mile at Ascot. He was beaten 10 lengths but it wasn’t a bad performance at all. The ground was soft that day and I don’t think he enjoyed it, and the extra distance at that point in time may have been a little bit too far, too soon. He was raised 5lbs for that run in the ratings, but this may be justified, especially as the form has been franked by Masked Marvel getting in front in taking fashion earlier this week. Baptist finished ahead of that horse, so it was definitely a decent enough race. Today’s contest is much easier. It’s quite wide open looking, with no real favourite in the market, and perhaps Fahey’s is priced on connections. Even so, I think a mark of 90 is well within the range of Baptist, who is well regarded by Andrew Balding. He has a couple of decent chances on the Knavesmire this afternoon, and not surprised Jimmy Fortune has chosen to come here to ride them. It isn’t a race to get too heavily involved with, but I feel that the current price of 7/1 for Baptist is a nice one. I believe if he goes the right way, he’ll be easily a 100+ rated horse, and is probably a few lbs in the front of the handicapper at present. Baptist; 2pts Win @ 7/1 Bet365 (bog)

[Lars]

Re: Flat Racing; Saturday 21st May 14:00 Haydock Brown Panther will be difficult to beat, but the 7/2 on offer now is about right. I think the value just about lies with Wayward Glance, and he can run a decent race here and I’d be surprised if he was out of the first three. He’s improved with every run, running well twice over a mile and then stepping up on that effort over 1m3f at Newbury. Although he was beaten 7 lengths that day, it was behind World Domination who is obviously a very decent horse. The selection stayed on well that day, making good progress towards the latter stages of the race and was unlucky not to get third. The form of that race couldn’t have worked out better (bar the winner) with the 2nd to 6th placed runners all winning subsequently. A rating of 85 is probably about right for the form that he’s shown so far, but I think with the extra furlong he encounters today, we could see him improve again. This is quite a tentative selection, and I usually wouldn’t post an EW selection at 6/1. However, I think it’s one of those “EW bets to nothing”. I’ll be quite surprised to see Wayward Glance out of the first three, especially as Michael Bell is going well at present, and Jamie Spencer isn’t riding too bad either. If he does get beaten but places, then there’s no harm done. With such strong form from his last start been posted, he’s a horse that could turn out to be a bit better than most of these in time. However, currently he does need to improve a little bit to win this, but the extra furlong and the switch to handicaps will help no end. Wayward Glance; 1pt EW @ 6/1 William Hill (bog)