Flat Racing ~Thur 12th May 2011

[Tedthewolf]

1.30 York~ I'm convinced JUDGE AND JURY is going to pop up very soon! Hasn't won since July 09 but has gone close and is on a winning mark. Fom figure don't look great but form tailed off back end of last year and didn't get a clear passage lto on seasonal re-apperance. Really good e/w bet at around 20's IMO. TABARET is also on a winning mark and will pop up at a price at some stage. Trainer yet to fire but is overpriced at 33's 3.00 York~ Pintura & St Moritz are the two to beat, i think anyway but are to skinny for me so ill go e/w BALCARCE NOV around 14's which ain't that great either. Porr run lto but much better than that when in the mood and went very close in this last year.

[Quackers]

Re: Flat Racing ~Thur 12th May 2011 1.30 York Blue Jack 4pts win 9/1 Ladbrokes Blue Jack returned to action last week at Chester and looked very well. He always seems to miss the break or start slowly which you just can't do at Chester over 5f. He was always travelling well but could not get a run and was not given a hard time of it. he should come on plenty for that run and a slow start here won't matter so much. He is drawn low which is a plus and there seems to be plenty of pace in the low numbers. Hopefully he will get a good toe into the race from the likes of Falasteen and Foxy Music who should help force a good pace. Blue Jack is more than capable off this mark as he showed when a strong finishing third in the Palace House last year off 105. He should come on plenty for his return to action and I expect him to be involved at the finish. 2.00 York Midday 5pts win Evens Bet 365 There looks to be nothing in this race that can trouble Midday here. She goes well fresh as she showed when finishing second in this race last year. She won 3 group 1's last year and as far and away better than these. If ready to go first time up she should take this comfortably. The main danger might come from Godolphin in Sajjhaa but even she needs to improve considerably on what she has shown so far in her short career. 2.30 York Seville 3pts win 2/1 Ladbrokes This looks a cracking race between 3 of the derby favourites. Pisco Sour and Ashva are surely just in this to make up the numbers. Yaseer is very interesting stepping up in distance as he was staying on well behind Native Khan last time out who upheld the form in the Guineas. His trainer believes he will improve for the step up in trip and he should come on for his last run. Both World Domination and Carlton House are ridiculously short for the derby for what they have actually achieved. Another thing putting me off Carlton House is the form of the stable. They may go on to beat Seville today but I prefer the proven form over the potential. Seville finishing second in the Racing Post Trophy last year which is high class form and far better than anything on offer from his opponents today. His breeding suggests he will improve for the step up in trip so I fancy him to run a big race. Aiden O'Brien has a great record in this race and his stable have really started to hit form in the last couple of weeks. The winner of this will go favourite for the derby and hopefully it will be Seville. 3.00 York Balacarce Nov 1pt e/w 14/1 Ladbrokes Balacarce Nov returned to action with an unlucky third to St Moritz in a listed event at Doncaster. He disappointed on his next start but should show his true colours here. This has probably the main aim after a good third in the race last year. Only Fareer and the classy Rainbow Peak finished ahead of him in this race last year. That run came off a mark of 100 and he is 4lbs lower today. He looks very well handicapped having won off 98 and finishing second off 104. He should be able to get competitive today and is partnered by Jamie Spencer who gets on well with the horse. He has a favourable low draw this year and might attempt to make all. St Moritz is half the price of this horse yet there is nothing to separate them on their meeting at Doncaster. 3.35 York Night Carnation 4 pts win Evens William Hill Night Carnation looked a horse to follow when comfortably beating Ahtoug at Sandown. That horse has franked the form by winning very well himself at Chester last week. There should be more to come from Night Carnation with that run under her belt. The only danger looks to be Margot Did but she has never raced over the minimum trip and I expect Night Carnation to be too good for her today. 4.45 York Descaro 2pts win 7/1 William Hill Descaro has returned to the flat from hurdling looking better than ever. He won well at Pontefract over this distance a couple of runs ago but found the extra distance against him last time out. He gets on well with this jockey and a return to this trip is in his favour. He has a good draw and looks as though he can still be competitive off this slightly higher mark.