FRENCH 1000 GUINEAS TRENDS

[ganjaman]

The Poule d'Essai des Pouliches (the French equivalent of the 1000 Guineas) takes place at Longchamp on Sunday 15th May. Unlike its male equivalent the Poule d'Essai des Pouliches is generally won by a member of the home team and two of the best fillies in French flat racing history, in Zarkava and Divine Proportions, have won this in the past 10 years. Below we take a look at the trends for the past 10 years: Age Race for 3yos Breeding Irish bred: 4-7-35 British bred: 3-7-35 American bred: 2-4-21 French bred: 1-2-34 UAE bred: 0-0-1 Speed in a horse’s pedigree seems key with only 1 of the 10 sires having won over further than a mile. 8 of 10 winners were by a sire that won a group 1 over 6F-7F (both exceptions were horses that finished 2nd in group 1 over 6-7F) 7 of 10 winners were sired by a horse that ran in the Prix Morny (finished 2161221) (5 different sires) 8 of 10 winners were sired by a horse that ran in either the French or English 2000 Guineas (both exceptions were sired by grade 1-winners in the USA) Since 2000 Zamindar's 5 daughter's to run in this have finished 01141 (3-0-5) Since 2000 Kingmambo's 3 daughters to have run in this have finished 131 (2-1-3) 9 of 10 winners were born in Jan, Feb or March Recent Form 9 of 10 winners (last 9) won last time out 10 of 10 winners had run in the past 35 days 9 of 10 winners (last 9) had won over 7F or 8F 6 of 10 winners had won at Longchamp (3 others having 1st course start) 10 of 10 winners had had between 2 and 6 career starts 9 of 10 winners had finished in the first 3 on all career starts (exception had never done worse than 4th) 7 of 10 winners had won a group or listed race (1 exception was 2nd in a listed race, other 2 exceptions won their maiden last time out) Other Races Prix De La Grotte winner (Golden Lilac): 932214112 (3-4-9) Prix De Marcel Boussac winner (Misty For Me): 512144 (2-1-6) Prix Du Calvados winner (Mambia): 13 (1-1-2) Prix Finlande winner (Glorious Sight): 12 (1-1-2) Prix Imprudence winner (Moonlight Cloud): 8513 (1-1-4) Prix La Camargo winner (Nova Hawk): 02056 (0-1-5) Albany Stakes winer (Memory): 88 (0-0-2) Prix De La Californie winner (Mixed Intention): 901d (0-0-3) 3 of 10 winners ran in the Prix De Marcel Boussac, finishing 112 3 of 10 winners ran in the Prix De La Grotte, finishing 111 2 of 10 winners ran in the Prix Finlande, finishing 13 2 of 10 winners ran in the Prix Imprudence, finishing 13 2 of 10 winners ran in the Prix Morny, finishing 12 2 of 10 winners ran in the Prix Robert Papin, finishing 11 Trainers Francois Rohaut (2-2-5) has gained 2 winners and 2 seconds from 5 runners. His only unplaced runner was Liliside last year, who finished first past the post but was disqualified and placed 6th. Andre Fabre (1-2-7) and Aidan O'Brien (1-2-10) have each saddled the winner and 2 places in the past 10 years. Jean-Claude Rouget (1-1-6), Criquette Head-Maarek (1-1-8) and John Gosden (1-0-6) have all trained one winner since 2001. Alex Pantall (0-2-6) has seen 2 of his 6 runners make the frame. British based trainers (1-2-28) have won just 1 running of this in the past 10 years from approximately 22.2% of the runners. Irish trained runners (1-3-14) have gained 1 win and 3 places from half the number of British-trained runners, though 3 of the 4 to make the frame were from O’Brien’s stable. Draw If you omit the 1 running of this race with less than 10 runners the draw stats read: Horses drawn 1 to 4: 2-8-36 Horses drawn 5 to 8: 6-4-36 Horses drawn 9 to 12: 1-5-33 Horses drawn 13 or higher: 0-1-13 8 of 9 winners in renewals with 10+ runners were drawn 8 or lower. The exception was Special Duty (6/4 favourite) last year, who was awarded the race after finishing 2nd, from stall 10, to Liliside (drawn 6). Price No strong trends on the prices though 6 of 10 winners came from first 3 in the betting, including the last 4. Favourites (3-5-10) have won this 3 times in the last 10 years, giving a level stakes loss of 4.91. The 3 winning favourites were priced 6/4 or shorter, 2 of 4 odds-on favourites have been turned over in the past 10 renewals. Summary: Based on the trends from the past 10 years you are looking for a horse: · Sired by a group 1 winner over 6F or 7F · Sire ran in the Prix Morny and/or a 2000 Guineas · Born in January, February or March · Had 2 to 6 career starts and run this season · Won a race in the past 35 days · Never finished worse than 3rd · Won over 7F or 8F · Course winner (or having first course start) · Won the Prix De La Grotte, Marcel Boussac and/or Robert Papin · First 3 in the Prix Imprudence, Morny or Finlande · Trained by Francois Rohaut · Drawn 8 or lower