Gooner80 Posted May 2, 2011 Share Posted May 2, 2011 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
davidc Posted May 2, 2011 Share Posted May 2, 2011 Re: How many games should be taken into account OPEN FOR DISCUSSION This thread is about the number of games taken into account when making a prediction between two teams, after searching through PL couldn't find anything like it so forgive me if previously discussed My aim here is to open up a discussion and trade a few ideas. IMO you can’t take the form tables too seriously but on the other hand you can’t go back 5 seasons either, at the moment I am going back 38 games with the only reason being it is a whole season and should give me a fair indication of how well a team is performing. I also make the assumption that a team will perform significantly different at home compared to away but if I take less games into account this could skew results So the million Dollar question is how many games is optimal, Im at the point of adding a weighting, adding more importance to the more recent games then the past Thanks for your replies in advance:cheers Hi Gooner80. Not sure if you have seen it or not but the thread Why Bets Lose has a discussion along the lines you are after. GL Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
v-zero Posted May 2, 2011 Share Posted May 2, 2011 Re: How many games should be taken into account OPEN FOR DISCUSSION As many games as the team has featured a similar lineup. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gooner80 Posted May 4, 2011 Author Share Posted May 4, 2011 Re: How many games should be taken into account OPEN FOR DISCUSSION I was hoping for a few opinions on what they consider the appropriate number of games to base predictions on:cry Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Drawsandmore Posted May 4, 2011 Share Posted May 4, 2011 Re: How many games should be taken into account OPEN FOR DISCUSSION Hi Gooner80...I am probably swimming against the tide a bit, but I only use the last two home games for the home team, and the last two away games for the away team. (Taking into account the strength of the opposition in each of the games). I've tested loads of combinations...the last 20, 15, 12, 10, 8, 6, 5, 4, 3, 2 and even just 1 match, and over many seasons, the last 2 matches consistently works best for me. I should point out that I have only tested this in the English leagues though, and I am only really interested in finding draws. Good luck Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gooner80 Posted May 5, 2011 Author Share Posted May 5, 2011 Re: How many games should be taken into account OPEN FOR DISCUSSION Hi Gooner80...I am probably swimming against the tide a bit, but I only use the last two home games for the home team, and the last two away games for the away team. (Taking into account the strength of the opposition in each of the games). I've tested loads of combinations...the last 20, 15, 12, 10, 8, 6, 5, 4, 3, 2 and even just 1 match, and over many seasons, the last 2 matches consistently works best for me. I should point out that I have only tested this in the English leagues though, and I am only really interested in finding draws. Good luck Hey Thanks for the reply but two games is way too low for my systems. I looked through as much of punters lounge as possible and Im surprised this hasnt come up before, surely the number of games a system is based over is going to have dramatic effects on the prediction. I know a few people wait 6-10 games for the season to settle down and discard the last 6-10 games. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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