Flat Racing; Saturday 30th April

[Lars]

I know this is so ridiculously early, but I may not have internet access and I got the price now that I was hoping for. We'll see if it drifts out tomorrow, and at least we've got BOG. Newmarket 15:45 I’m so keen on the chances of Jonny Mudball in this race, even though it’s a distinct step up in class and he has a little bit to do on figures that I’m willing to take this early price. To me, he’s an out and out 5f horse, and the drop to the minimum trip will be of huge benefit. Surprisingly it’ll be his first start at the distance, and he does have to make it in Group 3 Company, making the jump from Heritage Handicaps. The main piece of form that leads me to believe he could hack up in a race like this was his run in the Stewards Cup at Goodwood in July. Racing on the far side in only a small group (compared to the rest of the field), he absolutely bolted clear of them, and was winning by a couple of lengths within the final furlong. He wasn’t stopping, but tiring slightly in the last half-furlong, and ended up finishing 2nd. It was a bold effort but I just think that at the top level, he may just need a slightly shorter trip than the 6f that he encountered there. Jonny Mudball was last seen at the track when racing in the Ayr Gold Cup. He showed good speed throughout the early stages of the race, but was unable to get his favoured position over that trip due to missing the break (first time he’d done so in his career). It was still a bold effort in what is a tough handicap. He hasn’t been seen since, which is perhaps a concern as he’s been away for the track for 224 days. The selection a horse who has mainly been kept on the go, and his only real record fresh doesn’t look the best on paper, when running 6th at Doncaster. There are excuses for that run, for the fact it was run on slightly soft ground, which has proved not to be his ideal surface. Tom Dascombe was also in dreadful form at that point, a factor being the new gallop he moved to being faulty (allegedly). Jonny Mudball still finished very close up, but just emptied out in the last 150yds. Today, he moves up to Group 3 company in what look a great race. He does have 8lbs to make up on the top rated horses (Prohibit and Bordlescott) but I think the drop in trip can lead to some serious improvement this year. Especially on faster ground which he encounters today. I think he can be a serious contender for the late season 5f Group 1 sprints at York and at Longchamp. Seb Sanders booking is a positive, him having ridden him on his last four starts, including when winning at Newcastle off a mark of 90, when showing the excellent early speed previously mentioned. The draw has been quite kind too, and he may be able to bag a rail sit if his jockey wishes to. At a double figure price, I’m staking a bit more than usual. He may prove not to be up to a Group 3, or may need the run. However, I feel opportunities (personally) don’t come around too often, and perhaps if he does get beat today, they’ll be other chances for him to recoup. Still, I think the race conditions, draw, and the expertise of Seb Sanders should lead to a massive run. Jonny Mudball ; 2.5pts EW @ 14/1 Victor Chandler (bog)

[Spooner]

Re: Flat Racing; Saturday 30th April Newmarket 15:10 Fury @ 18/1 Boylesports 1pt e/w 3 1/4 Fury (W/O Frankel) @ 7/1 Boylesports 2pts e/w 3 1/4 Frankel is obviously the one to beat here and should win this, however after that I see the race looking pretty open. We see in last year's race that the fancied horses did not do very well with the first three in the betting out the frame. Fury for William Haggas looks a nice horse, two career runs and two wins, both coming over 7f distance. Stayed on well to win in a huge field at this course and the step upto 8f should suit. In that race plenty have come out and run well in good races, obviously not to this standard but with improvement to come from this one which should be there, he is entitled to run a big race. Stable also in good nick, not sent out many but hold a 20% win ratio and with others in the places too.