bambamsophz Posted April 28, 2011 Share Posted April 28, 2011 I have been looking at this site for a while and debating whether to post. I was looking on the football data site and downloaded the comprehensive excel file with all the stats for different leagues in, then took a set of English premiership/championship (I can't remember, football isn't really my thing, I just like to bet on it) team's HOME game scores only and analysed them on SPSS. I copied the results into the original excel spreadsheet, it's under the new tab called HOME GAMES with a table for each team's goal frequency when playing at home, along with the mean score for the season, the range of these scores and the median and mode of them for each team. Thought I'd share, the link below. http://www.megaupload.com/?d=U0Y49EM6 It's messy but serves it's purpose, and we can see that Birmingham looks good for >.5 for example as they have not had one match in the season where they have scored less than 1, same for Man U. A general example of how the tables look, or at least what we're interested in is (for arguments sake) ARSENAL 1 1 10.00 2 6 60.00 3 3 30.00 5 1 10.00 The first column is the number of goals in a match, the second is the number of that goal scored over the season, the third number is the percentage of that number of goals over the season, in this case, for example, we can see the 1.5 and over would probably be a good market if they are the favourites to win. I am interested in betting with the >0.5 market, seems safe with good return if done in-play with pre-analysis of scores.... that's about it, let me know if you like it! Also if anyone knows where I can get a raw excel file of ALL the leagues, eg the ones you can't pronounce the name of that aren't on football data I would be interested. Hope you like!:D Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bambamsophz Posted April 28, 2011 Author Share Posted April 28, 2011 Re: For those who favour above/below or correct score betting... Oh, this also means Wigan would be best for the Unders, theoretically, as when playing at home statistically they score one goal less than half the time. Of course you have to look at the other side though! If you look at what I did and do it yourself on SPSS after filtering it on excel, you can compare the away teams quite quickly and easily too. Infact, at some point I will be doing that. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mulkis Posted April 28, 2011 Share Posted April 28, 2011 Re: For those who favour above/below or correct score betting... What it is SPSS? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
betting-place Posted April 28, 2011 Share Posted April 28, 2011 Re: For those who favour above/below or correct score betting... Cant download file from the jobs place. I ll check it at home and give some feedback. ;) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bambamsophz Posted April 28, 2011 Author Share Posted April 28, 2011 Re: For those who favour above/below or correct score betting... @Betting-place, thanks, it's very rough and ready as I only had the idea last night, but maybe will test it properly at some point, make some kind of system. I'm not a pro at SPSS but could easily find relationships of different factors in the data if I could remember which analysis is which haha. @Mulkis A statistical analysis program, used to see trends and relationships, as well as helping predict things. Used regularly in science stats to see if the result of an experiment is greater than chance (e.g. if the probability of it not being is less than 5%). http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/SPSS SPSS is among the most widely used programs for statistical analysis in social science. It is used by market researchers, health researchers, survey companies, government, education researchers, marketing organizations and others. The original SPSS manual (Nie, Bent & Hull, 1970) has been described as one of "sociology's most influential books".[4] In addition to statistical analysis, data management (case selection, file reshaping, creating derived data) and data documentation (a metadata dictionary is stored in the datafile) are features of the base software. Statistics included in the base software: Descriptive statistics: Cross tabulation, Frequencies, Descriptives, Explore, Descriptive Ratio Statistics Bivariate statistics: Means, t-test, ANOVA, Correlation (bivariate, partial, distances), Nonparametric tests Prediction for numerical outcomes: Linear regression Prediction for identifying groups: Factor analysis, cluster analysis (two-step, K-means, hierarchical), Discriminant That's what wikipedia says. I just use it to find relationships, never used it for frequencies till now but it seems like it will maybe prove useful in the future. It does also have a prediction calculation based on the data. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mulkis Posted April 28, 2011 Share Posted April 28, 2011 Re: For those who favour above/below or correct score betting... Oh, I see. Never used it. I am happy with excell and minitab. But sorry, I am somehow failing to identify, what exactly analysis you performed? Is it Poisson, Markov chain, simple correlation, bayesian hierarchy or what? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bambamsophz Posted April 28, 2011 Author Share Posted April 28, 2011 Re: For those who favour above/below or correct score betting... No it's just simple frequency tables for each team this season. Was just testing it out because I didn't know if people would be interested in it or whether it would work, but I know not everyone does the whole stats thing so thought a few might appreciate it. The table has the mean goals, mode goals, min and max goals scored, just in a general big table. Then further down it has a table for each team, in which it shows the number of home matches that ended in a number of goals, for example if arsenal ended 5 matches with 0 goals, 5 matches with 1 goal, 5 with 3 and 5 with 4, out of twenty matches then it'd come up 0 5 1 5 3 5 4 5 But next to that it shows the percentage of that number of goals, so in this case it would be 25%. It's just a way to see who the home team is and glance, see what their average goals are and see what they are likely to score in a %. The reason I used it is because I want to look further into the different variables and things like that, but I haven't really dug deep because I've forgotten how to do some types of analysis. You can do any of those analyses you mentioned on there, it's 'the' comprehensive statistical analysis package. If only I knew how to use it better :unsure. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bambamsophz Posted April 28, 2011 Author Share Posted April 28, 2011 Re: For those who favour above/below or correct score betting... You can do regression stats too so it gives you score prediction for the next match or a predictive curve based on past data, but the problem is obviously the other team and the home/away issue, so it wouldn't give you necessarily a 'correct score', as you don't know what the other team are like in comparison. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jawain04 Posted April 28, 2011 Share Posted April 28, 2011 Re: For those who favour above/below or correct score betting... hi - first post on forums but been watching it for ages. the goals thing is really useful :) can u please explain the other tabs? im new to usingsystems and in depth stats - normally i follow form guides and go for favourites cheers Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mulkis Posted April 28, 2011 Share Posted April 28, 2011 Re: For those who favour above/below or correct score betting... .... the problem is obviously the other team and the home/away issue' date=' so it wouldn't give you necessarily a 'correct score', as you don't know what the other team are like in comparison.[/quote'] Poisson distribution takes care of that issue. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bambamsophz Posted April 28, 2011 Author Share Posted April 28, 2011 Re: For those who favour above/below or correct score betting... @Mulkis I'm not so good at stats, how would you go about the poisson distribution? @Jawain, thankyou, the other tabs are just data I downloaded from football-data.co.uk, that I didn't analyse, they have info on different leagues etc, and the first tab is the one I did the stat thing from. :nana Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jawain04 Posted April 29, 2011 Share Posted April 29, 2011 Re: For those who favour above/below or correct score betting... @Mulkis I'm not so good at stats, how would you go about the poisson distribution? @Jawain, thankyou, the other tabs are just data I downloaded from football-data.co.uk, that I didn't analyse, they have info on different leagues etc, and the first tab is the one I did the stat thing from. :nana ok cheers - they looked really complicated but full of data and didnt know what it all meant Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bambamsophz Posted April 30, 2011 Author Share Posted April 30, 2011 Re: For those who favour above/below or correct score betting... If you look on there there's a key to it all somewhere, like HTHG is half time home goals, etc. I didn't look too far into it though Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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