BBOTD Sunday 24th April

[Lars]

16:55 Sandown I may be mad to take on the Henry Cecil charge, especially as the price currently available, won’t be in the morning. However, Roger Varian has seemingly slipped into Michael Jarvis’ shoes with little hassle, and I think Dominant has a decent chance in this contest over 1m2f. The 3yo has had two starts to date, and won on debut at Goodwood over 7f. He took a little bit of time to get going but was going away nicely at the finish. The form of that maiden wasn’t the greatest with the runner up not improving as connections would have hoped (still a maiden). Dominant showed though that he’s a decent animal when finishing a very respectable 8th in the Tattersalls 2yo Millions Trophy. He was up with the pace in the leading group but just didn’t have the toe to crack on when needs be, but he wasn’t stopping at the finish. That race was obviously very strong, with potential Classic contenders coming out of it including the winner Fury. Dominant seemed a little awkward at times, and I think that may have been due to the soft surface he was running on. He was changing his legs at some points, and I feel that the better ground he’ll encounter today should help him. He takes a step up in trip from 7f to 1m2f, but seemingly should stay on his running style, as well as his pedigree as his dam won over this trip. Dominant did look a little backwards last season, and the Newmarket “hounds” were shouting that he’d come on a lot in time, but he still managed to win on debut. He will have been given time to mature over the winter, and I think he has potential to be a fine animal. He has entries to a top-class 1m2f sales race at Newmarket later in the year, and I think that sort of race is within him. He has an official rating of 88, which is probably fair on the form of his last run. It may be one weakness to his chances that he has to carry top weight, this race been a handicap. It’s also a pretty competitive contest, so I wouldn’t really want to invest too heavily, even though I really like his chances. Cecil, Godolphin and the Jane Chappele-Hyam mounts are all big dangers, but at the prices, I’ll be pretty disappointed to see Dominant out of the first three and at a price of 8/1, he rates the value pick. Dominant; EW @ 8/1 Bet365 (bog)

[Monterosso]

Re: BBOTD Sunday 24th April 4:10 Musselburgh - Sioux Rising - e/w @ 16/1 (WillHill) A solid pace to run at and a sharp track seems to be exactly what this 5 year old mare requires, and that's exactly what she gets here. However, on first looks and jockey bookings, it seems like Sioux Rising is the second string horse for the Richard Fahey stable, who also runs another mare here and that one is partnered by Paul Hanagan, but I think he's on the wrong horse, as mad as that sounds. It doesn't really bother me who's on board, but it seems to be the main reason why she's currently available at 16/1, a price that I'd consider much too big, even though the trainers intentions is pure guesswork. She was the stables apparent second string before when finishing 2nd at 28/1 in a similarly hot handicap, with Hanagan on board the 3/1 Fahey trained favourite, who finished a head back in 3rd. Incidentally, Tony Hamilton was the man on board Sioux Rising back then, and he's on for the first time since, which I'm hoping proves to be a good omen. She most certainly has things to suit here and my only worry is what way the ground is, which is deemed to be good-to-soft (good-in-places) on one site, with the other saying it's good (good-to-firm). That's quite annoying but I'd imagine the ground will be pretty decent and my selection is quite adaptable with regards to ground. Overall, Sioux Rising has performed to her best at 6f, with both of her wins coming over that distance. However, both of them wins were at Pontefract, a track with a premium on stamina. The Musselburgh 7f that she faces today should be ideal and I fancy the track to suit perfectly too. She has run good races over this trip and I've seen many a race where I thought she'd be better upped in trip on a quicker track. She is on a long losing run, stretching back to her third career start, when landing a similar handicap from a 3lb lower mark. She needed all of the 6f at Pontefract to get up that day and I'm surprised she hasn't been tried over 7f more often. Despite failing to win in her last 15 starts, she does have 4 seconds and 2 thirds to her name, including a few races where she was probably a bit unlucky not to win. Her attitude is perfect and now all she needs is a little bit of luck to get her head in-front. Her draw today makes things difficult, as she's out wide, but she has plenty of early speed, certainly enough to get a relatively handy position in the field. She's had her problems in the past, notably a back injury between her 3 & 4 year old season, which caused her to miss a year. The now 5 year old came back as good as ever and probably put in a career best performance when finishing 2nd over a fairly sharp 6f at Ripon on the back of that injury, with Tony Hamilton on board. Sioux Rising is clearly talented, but somewhat luckless given her determined attitude. I'm of the opinion that she doesn't have enough speed to reach her potential off this mark over 6 furlongs, but a truly run 7f on a quick track will be perfect, as she's only encountered this trip on 4 occasions, twice on galloping tracks and twice on the all-weather. She has certain pieces of form, both on the AW and flat, that would give her much more solid claims here than her 16/1 price tag suggests, but she's most likely priced on the jockey booking and not her raw ability. She's only had 11 runs on the flat, so she's fairly unexposed and still open to a bit more, especially under todays conditions. Her yard continues to be in fine form, with 12 winners from their last 40 runners in the past fortnight, giving them a wonderful 30% strike rate with a +£41 LSP. When Tony Hamilton rides for Fahey at this track he has a 12% strike rate, which is very decent by his standards. I wouldn't know too much about him but he gave this horse a good ride before and will hopefully do so again. I could say plenty more and go through her form in detail, but I'm quite lazy tonight! She's definitely worth a chance here though, as she's fit, suited by conditions, a potential improver over the trip, at the track and in a race like this. 16/1 is value and she should only be 10's, at most. Small-ish each-way stakes for me and one I think could pick up a place handily enough, if she runs to her ability. There's plenty of dangers, which is why I'm not staking more but this one is definitely a lively candidate and has pretty good recent form figures when things haven't been against her (like the ground LTO). Hopefully she'll run well.