TheImp Posted April 22, 2011 Share Posted April 22, 2011 Think this is the most appropriate place for this. I've noticed that probably out of all the major leagues in world football, the Dutch Eredivisie/Jupiler leagues have a disproportionately high number of matches that reach Over 2.5 goals - today for example NINE out of TEN of the matches that were played reached over 2.5 goals. I'm wondering if anyone else has noticed this and considered doing a 'Goliath' on both leagues? Whenever the next full day of matches is (sometime next week) I will pick eight selections from both the Jupiler and Eredivisie (four from each) for Over 2.5 goals picking the eight with the best odds before putting them in to a Goliath of 247 bets @ around 0.07p a bet (around £20 in total). I will do this until the end of the season. Could be suprisingly lucrative way of making a quick grand or two! Anyone else in? When the next full match day is, I will post my selections and the odds/returns. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BobNL Posted April 22, 2011 Share Posted April 22, 2011 Re: Goliath on Dutch League Over's! Good luck with this! I'm from the Netherlands and you're right, in the second league, the Jupiler League, they score a lot. Sometimes I play for fun a combo with all the games Over 2.5, but it is hard, maybe a goliath is better. Also in the Eredivisie there are a lot of Overs but more in the Jupiler League so choose your games well. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
flower567 Posted April 23, 2011 Share Posted April 23, 2011 Re: Goliath on Dutch League Over's! hi m8, if you are looking for overs don`t forgt the belgium 2nd league and also austrian`s league 1 and 2 - there are a lot of games with over 2.5 goals in them - doing doubles and trebles as a maximum - never did more than that when there season is over have a look at the scandinavien leagues - they started now and in a few weeks time these scandinavian league games are much more predictable good luck :hope Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mattduv Posted April 25, 2011 Share Posted April 25, 2011 Re: Goliath on Dutch League Over's! This sounds interesting. Just had a look at these two leagues and going back about 4 or 5 match weeks the lowest seems to be 5 of the 10 games going over 2.5 so picking 8 out of 20 games over both leagues to go over might not be as impossible as it seems. Think I'll definitely have a look into this. Div 2 play Friday and div 1 on Sunday. But with a £20 stake made up of 7p bets have you worked out how many need to come in approximately to be in profit? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheImp Posted April 26, 2011 Author Share Posted April 26, 2011 Re: Goliath on Dutch League Over's! This sounds interesting. Just had a look at these two leagues and going back about 4 or 5 match weeks the lowest seems to be 5 of the 10 games going over 2.5 so picking 8 out of 20 games over both leagues to go over might not be as impossible as it seems. Think I'll definitely have a look into this. Div 2 play Friday and div 1 on Sunday. But with a £20 stake made up of 7p bets have you worked out how many need to come in approximately to be in profit? You have a point re the amount of results needed to make any sort of profit. I think the plan will be to select 8 matches in both leagues which have the highest odds for the over 2.5's and go with them. Yet again in Eredivisie ALL The matches were over 2.5 this weekend. From doing a bit of working out, I would need to get SIX out of EIGHT selections right to pretty much double the original stake. With a stake of 0.07p per bet (total stake £17.29), and each bet having odds of 5/6 (average) the profit is as follows: 6 correct - £18.08 profit 7 correct - £84.35 8 correct - £272.34 I'm starting to think this isn't very good value! :eyes I may mess about with it and come up with 6 selections of over 2.5 goals across the two leagues and 2 selections of over 3.5 goals based on statistics and research...should have slightly longer odds with affecting my chances too much. The Jupiler league matches are on Friday 29th and the Eredivise matches are up next on Sunday 1st - I will have my selections posted on here on Thursday with reasoning. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mattduv Posted April 27, 2011 Share Posted April 27, 2011 Re: Goliath on Dutch League Over's! Ok I've had a look into this and and I'm going to give it a go too:clap I've picked 8 games I think will go over 2.5, they are: Twenty vs Willam ll Heerenveen vs Ajax PSV vs Vitesse ADO vs Groningen NEC vs Roda RKC Waalwijk vs RBC Rosendaal Altered vs fortuna AGOVV vs Sparta twente play Ajax in the cup final on May 8th so thinking they may both rest players especially as Twente play the bottom team who should not put up too much of a fight so I may decide to drop both those games and just do a Heinz (57 bets) from 6 picks. Was thinking of a stake of £20 (35p each bet) and means I'll need 5 from the 6 to come in for a profit. Will wait to see any team news before putting these on. Does anyone have a good site where I can get team news from? Comments welcome. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BobNL Posted April 27, 2011 Share Posted April 27, 2011 Re: Goliath on Dutch League Over's! I am from the Netherlands and I can tell you that both Ajax and Twente never will rest their players. Only when they have a big lead. There are only two games left in the League and the League is much more important than the cup and this is the table right now: 1. Twente 32 - 68 2. Ajax 32 - 67 3. PSV 32 - 65 As you can see, it is really close and especially if I tell you that the last game is Ajax - Twente. They both really need to win. But your picks are fine, maybe VVV Venlo - Feyenoord is a good one too. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mattduv Posted April 27, 2011 Share Posted April 27, 2011 Re: Goliath on Dutch League Over's! I am from the Netherlands and I can tell you that both Ajax and Twente never will rest their players. Only when they have a big lead. There are only two games left in the League and the League is much more important than the cup and this is the table right now: 1. Twente 32 - 68 2. Ajax 32 - 67 3. PSV 32 - 65 As you can see, it is really close and especially if I tell you that the last game is Ajax - Twente. They both really need to win. But your picks are fine, maybe VVV Venlo - Feyenoord is a good one too. Thanks for that Bob. Will reconsider Ajax and Twente. I looked at the feyenoord game and didn't mark it down for some reason. Just seen that they have scored 15 in their last 6 and vvv have conceded about the same in their past 6 so may have another look. Do you know of any sites I can get team news from in English? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aderuk Posted April 28, 2011 Share Posted April 28, 2011 Re: Goliath on Dutch League Over's! Good luck with this,although i think you will do well to find 5/6 for over 2.5 goals.The dutch leagues are usually nearer 1/2 for over 2.5 goals. therefore a 7p 8 fold would only be around £1.60 return i think. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheImp Posted April 28, 2011 Author Share Posted April 28, 2011 Re: Goliath (now a HEINZ!) on Dutch League Over's! I have decided that doing a Goliath with these odds is not going to be the best option SO I have gone with a Heinz of As promised, here are my selections. All are for Over 2.5 Goals with Bet365 except for two fixtures which I have researched have the most likely chance to go over 3.5 and I have added them in to boost the returns. Jupiler league 29/04/11 Telstar v Go Ahead Eagles 1.70 Veendam v Helmond 1.72 Almere City v Fortuna (Over 3.5) 2.35 Eredivisie 01/05/11 VVV v Feyenoord 1.47 NEC v Roda JC (Over 3.5) 2.20 ADO Den Haag v FC Groningen 1.50 HEINZ - 57 Bets @ 0.35p per bet on the 6 fixtures Total Stake - £19.95 Highest possible returns: 6 out of 6: £165.97 5 out of 6: £64.41 4 out of 6: £22.15 :hope Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mattduv Posted April 28, 2011 Share Posted April 28, 2011 Re: Goliath on Dutch League Over's! Just put mine on as well. Sticking to the Heinz and £20 stake as per my previous post. Did a bit of reserch and decided to stick to my guns even though the ones I picked had more or less the lowest odds :( Went for: Juliper League - 29/4 RKC V Roosendaal @1.36 Almere V Firtuna @1.53 Eredivisie - 1/5 VVV V Feyenoord @ 1.47 PSV V Vitesse @1.36 ADO V Groningen @ 1.50 NEC V Roda @ 1.50 With bet365 also 6 wins = £53.27 profit 5 wins = £9.38 Good luck to you Bounce, hope you don't mind me hijacking the thread a little. :ok Lets hope all the keepers have a nightmare this weekend :hope Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheImp Posted April 29, 2011 Author Share Posted April 29, 2011 Re: Goliath on Dutch League Over's! Safe to say this little exploration was a failure - although one of the games was 7-0! Probably took the goals from the other games that we needed :/ Oh well. Thread closed! :\ Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheImp Posted May 1, 2011 Author Share Posted May 1, 2011 Re: Goliath on Dutch League Over's! lol - once again ALL of the Eredivisie games (10 of them) were over 2.5 with six reaching over 3.5!! There has to be something in this...we just got it wrong with the Jupiler unders. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mattduv Posted May 2, 2011 Share Posted May 2, 2011 Re: Goliath on Dutch League Over's! Just put mine on as well. Sticking to the Heinz and £20 stake as per my previous post. Did a bit of reserch and decided to stick to my guns even though the ones I picked had more or less the lowest odds :( Went for: Juliper League - 29/4 RKC V Roosendaal @1.36 Win Almere V Firtuna @1.53 Lose Eredivisie - 1/5 VVV V Feyenoord @ 1.47 Win PSV V Vitesse @1.36 Win ADO V Groningen @ 1.50 Win NEC V Roda @ 1.50 With bet365 also 6 wins = £53.27 profit 5 wins = £9.38 Good luck to you Bounce, hope you don't mind me hijacking the thread a little. :ok Lets hope all the keepers have a nightmare this weekend :hope A small profit of £7.43 made here for 5 out of 6 results coming in. Obvously something in it as you say Bounce but don't think I'll go for as many bets next time. Might look at picking 5 games and leaving the doubles out. So you'd have 10 trebles, 5 fourfolds and 1 accumulator = 16 bets in all. Wouldn't have to do the same stake on each bet then either. I'll have look and see it it looks worthwhile. Only one game left for the Dutch though. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kevsul Posted May 2, 2011 Share Posted May 2, 2011 Re: Goliath on Dutch League Over's! There are some weeks when you may only get 4 going over from both leagues. I tend to do 6~7~8 in Accumulators Yesterday 1 x 6 selections for £8 stake only returns £83 1 x 7 Selections For another £8.80 stake returned £88 and 1 x 4 selections for £15 stake returned £76 Team to leave out is Go Ahead Eagles, some weeks they play and knock is an 7 goal game, other time they struggle to have a game over 2.5, they have lost me more than won. If you really fancy laying out £20, look to take say 4 or 5 games and do a £8 accy That then leaves you £12 to do 3 x £4 accys of 5 or more selections, you will almost certainly get one up sooner or later, which would pay for the few weeks that you lose. I never took the late game, just all the afternoon selections, l think it was last week the go ahead eagles on the same KO times that let the whole lot going over 2.5. Good luck whatever you decide Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kevsul Posted May 6, 2011 Share Posted May 6, 2011 Re: Goliath on Dutch League Over's! And only 1 tonight lets it down for all 9 FTCambuur Leeuwarden3 - 3FC Zwolle FTEmmen2 - 2FC Eindhoven FTFC Den Bosch1 - 0Almere City FC FTFC Volendam2 - 2Veendam FTFortuna Sittard1 - 2RKC Waalwijk FTGo Ahead Eagles2 - 1AGOVV Apeldorn FTHelmond Sport5 - 1Telstar Ijmuiden FTRBC Roosendaal3 - 2FC Dordrecht FTSparta Rotterdam3 - 0MVV Maastricht Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil85 Posted May 7, 2011 Share Posted May 7, 2011 Re: Goliath on Dutch League Over's! I strongly recommend what kevsul said: it's better to take one 5 game accumulator, staking about 10 pounds or euros on the accy. This has been my strategy in the Dutch league for a while now. Usually a 5 game accy will give you odds between 7/1 and 9/1. If you pick your games well, you will surely hit it once every three rounds. Which means it's a profitable strategy. I've started doing it because I analysed the same thing. In Holland the focus on attacking football is high, while most defences are mediocre. The amount of goals is bizarre, compared to other European leagues. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kevsul Posted May 15, 2011 Share Posted May 15, 2011 Re: Goliath on Dutch League Over's! So today shows, that it is never always as good as we think Only 4 from 9 FTAjax Amsterdam3 - 1FC Twente Enschede FTDe Graafschap1 - 0VVV Venlo FTFC Groningen0 - 0PSV Eindhoven FTFC Utrecht5 - 1AZ Alkmaar FTFeyenoord Rotterdam1 - 1NEC Nijmegen FTHeracles Almelo3 - 0Den Haag FTRoda Kerkrade0 - 0SC Heerenveen FTVitesse Arnhem1 - 4Excelsior Rotterdam FTWillem II Tilburg0 - 1NAC Breda Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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