Staking

[jayalexander]

Has your staking altered much over the years and if so, how? Personally, since I've joined PL, my stakes have remained mostly at min bet on betfair. However, my strike rate recently has been more successful and I would now like to introduce a daily % increase as I feel a lot more comfortable in my selections. I realise there are great limitations to level stake betting, but up until now I've seen it as a safer way to place bets. Any advice will be appreciated!

[Gingertipster]

Re: Staking Posted this before, but here is an updated version. (the bold type is hopefully to make things easier to follow, putting an emphasis on certain areas / words / numbers). The two important aspects for staking are in my opinion: Chance Of Winning and How Much Value is in the bet. Chance Of Winning: I used to bet in level stakes. But found it mattered less about whether my short priced selections won or lost. Everything depended on how many outsiders won. Obviously with level stakes a punter needs to win ten Even money chances to win the same as one 10/1 shot. It did not seem right, so changed to betting to win the same amount of profit. But this time it mattered less about the outsiders winning or losing. As I was losing much more on the shorties. Again it did not seem right. I wanted a staking plan that would enable me to put more on the shorties, as they by and large have a greater chance of winning. Yet win more money on the outsiders, as - with less money risked - they deserve to win more money. It occurred to me that anything I believe has double the chance of winning should have double the stake. i.e. Anything I rate as a fair Even money shot (50% chance) gets 50 points staked (at anything bigger than 11/10), something I believe has a fair 3/1 (25%) chance gets 25 points staked (at anything bigger than 100/30), which in turn should have double the stake of one I believe has a fair 7/1 (12.5%) chance (rounded up) 13 points staked, and so on. Less money staked on the bigger prices, yet more money won. 50 points @ Evens would win 50 points, 25 @ 3/1 wins 75 and 13 @ 7/1 wins 91 points. Amount Of Value: However, my stake should also take in to account the amount of value I believe is in the bet. i.e. Something thought to be a 20% (fair 4/1) chance, who is available at 6/1 (fair 14.3%) should have more stake than if the top price was shorter than 6/1, say 5/1 (fair 16.7%). Stake gets bigger the more value I believe is in the bet. So points are added for amount of value in the bet. With my 20% chance available at 6/1 (14.3%). Difference being 5.7% (20 – 14.3 = 5.7). Multiplied by 4*. So 5.7 x 4 = 22.8 Rounded down (or up). So anything believed to be a 20% chance who is available at top price 6/1 gets 20 + 22.8 = 43 points @ 6/1 winning 258 points. Any 20% chance only available at top price 5/1 (16.7%) gets 33 points staked 20 – 16.7 = 3.3 x 4 = 13.2 so 20 + 13 = 33 points @ 5/1 winning 165 points (compared to 258 points of the 20% chance at 6/1). * If I think a race is easy to work out it is 4 x the difference. If it's not quite so easy it could be 3 or 2x the difference. Anything too difficult, no bet. For each way bets It is 0.67 x the win only stake. So a 43 points win only bet @ 6/1 becomes 29 points each way @ 6/1. For anyone wanting a more conventional points staking plan: Divide all stakes by 10. Might sound complicated, but once used to it, it's pretty straightforward. Hope that helps Jay