BET365 GOLD CUP TRENDS 2011

[ganjaman]

The Bet365 Gold Cup (formerly the Whitbread Gold Cup), which takes place at Sandown on Saturday 23rd April, is a grade 3 handicap chase run over 3 miles 5½ furlongs and it signals the end of the British national hunt season. It is always a hugely competitive race and while this year’s renewal may not be of the highest quality, it should still provide a highly entertaining spectacle. Below we take a look at the trends for the past 10 years: Age (Win-Place-Runners) 6yo: 1-2-10 7yo: 2-7-23 8yo: 3-7-41 9yo: 1-2-36 10yo: 1-4-39 11yo: 2-5-20 12yo+: 0-1-9 Horses aged 6 to 8: 6-16-74 Horses aged 9+: 4-12-104 Younger horses have held the call in this, with 6 of 10 winners being aged 6 to 8 from less than 42% of the total runners. Of the 4 winners aged 9+, 3 had won a grade 2 or 3 chase previously and the other had won the Grade B Troytown Chase and was runner-up in the Irish Grand National on previous start. Breeding Irish bred: 5-5-85 French bred: 3-19-59 British bred: 1-4-27 USA bred: 1-0-4 Other: 0-0-3 Over past 7 years French breds have a record of 3-16-42, which compares well to horses bred in all other countries, combined record of 4-3-77. Fred bred horses have filled 22 of 29 places since 2004 and they represented only 35.3% of the total runners. Weight (Win-Place-Runners) Horses carrying 11-0 or more: 2-7-49 Horses carrying 10-6 to 10-13: 4-10-46 Horses carrying 10-0 to 10-5: 4-6-59 Horses carrying 9-13 or less: 0-5-24 Horses carrying 10-0 to 10-13 have won 8 of the last 10 from approximately 59% of the total runners. Top Weight: 507PF030P4 (0-2-10) Both horses allotted top weight to have made the frame were ridden by 7lb claimers Official Ratings Horses rated 146 or higher: 2-6-33 Horses rated 132 to 145: 8-16-110 Horses rated 131 or lower: 0-6-35 8 of 10 winners were officially rated 132 to 145, though they have represented approximately 62% of the total runners. Horses racing from out of the handicap: 2-5-41 Recent/Past Form 7 of 10 winners finished in the first 4 on last completed chase start 8 of 10 winners had their last chase start in a graded contest (2 exceptions ran in class 2 chase worth 30K+) 10 of 10 winners had run in the past 50 days 10 of 10 winners had run at least 3 times that season 10 of 10 winners had won over 2M 4F+ 8 of 10 winners had won over 3M 1F+ 8 of 10 winners had run in 9 or fewer handicap chases (both exceptions finished 4th in previous year's race) 9 of 10 winners had won no more than 2 handicap chases 6 of 10 winners were first or second season chasers 3 of 10 winners contested a novice chase that season 9 of 10 winners won a race worth 20K+ 7 of 10 winners had won a listed or graded race Other Races Previous season's winner (Church Island): 54659 (0-0-5) Badger Ales Trophy winner (Meanus Dandy): P (0-0-1) Classic Chase winner (West End Rocker): 00 (0-0-2) 2 of 10 winners ran in Scottish National last time, finishing 21 2 of 10 winners ran in Aintree Grand National last time, both unseating 2 of 10 winners ran in Stewart Family H'cap Chase, finishing 3P 2 of 10 winners ran in Racing Post Chase, finishing 57 2 of 3 novice winners ran in Scilly Isles Novice Chase, finishing 35 2 of 10 winners (2 of last 3) ran in the Charlie Hall finishing 34 6 of 10 winners ran at the Cheltenham Festival (2 Stewart Family H'cap Chase, 1 4M NH Novice Chase, 1 Ryanair, 1 Arkle & 1 World Hurdle) 8 of 10 winners had their last start in a Cheltenham chase or in Irish/Scottish/Aintree Grand National (both exceptions ran in a hurdle) Trainers Philip Hobbs (2-5-13) trained the winner in 2006 and 2008 and has filled 3 of the 7 places in past 2 years. Paul Nicholls (2-8-27) won the race twice in the past decade with Ad Hoc (in 01 & 03). Michael Hourigan (1-0-3) in 2010 and Ferdy Murphy (1-0-3) in 2007 are the only other 2 trainers with entries to have won this in past 10 years. Irish trained runners (2-1-14) have won 2 of the last 10 runnings from just 8% of the total runners. Price 7 of 10 winners were priced between 14/1 and 25/1 No strong trends on trends on the prices, though there have been a couple of long-priced winners in past 3 years. Favourites (0-5-12) have a very poor record gaining no wins in the past 10 year. Level stakes loss of 10.00. Summary: Based on the trends from the past 10 years you are looking for a horse: Aged 6 to 8 Carrying 10-0 to 10-13 Officially rated 132 to 145 French bred horses do well Had last run at Cheltenham, in a Grand National or over hurdles Ran at this season’s Cheltenham Festival Run in the past 50 days Run at least 3 times this season Won over 3M 1F+ Won a race worth £20,000 or more Run in no more than 9 handicap chases (won no more than 2) Trained by Philip Hobbs, Paul Nicholls or in Ireland

[Quackers]

Re: BET365 GOLD CUP TRENDS 2011 I like the look of Poker De Sivola. Fits most of the trends and was unlucky to be brought down last time out after being well backed for the race. Ferdy Murphy stable are not having that many winners but the horses are running well and seem to be running to form. 12/1 for the horse is decent enough. I like Timmy Murphy as a jockey and he has won on the horse before. No stamina worries for the horse plus he has won on quick ground in his younger days. If putting in a clear round and staying out of trouble, I see him going close