KEVIN BPULLEIN POINTS and ELO (rateform)

[Gooner80]

Hi I have gained so much from various people’s threads I thought I would give something back. Basically I have taken 348 end of year rate form ratings from premiership spanned over over 15 years, because of the nature of having to wait say 10 games each promoted team is given the rating from the relegated team and the ratings are on going to avoid having to wait for a rating to be realistic. Here’s what I have done I have put the ELo rating and kevin Pullein success rating and their points total into a line of best fit and then excel calculated a regression formula which I will share with you below Kevin Pullein success rate to rateform rating Using over 300 end of year ratings R2 value= 0.8583 Y=0.8948x²-48.522x+1330.1 So replacing x with kevin Pullein success rate in the definitve guide to football betting will give you the Elo rating, or doing a bit of algebra you can swap y around to get the value of x I smoothed out by averaging the raw data to get a better line of best fit and I got R2 value=0.9895 Y=0.557x²-98012x+317.42 This is without the noise (please not the success rate of Pullein’s formula is worked out by counting the number of wins, awarding 0.5 for a draw and dividing by number of games then times a 100 so if a team played 38 won 10 and drew 10 they would have a success rate of 15divided by38 times 100 equals 39.47% success rate Points to rateform I did the same for points to rate form R2 value=0.8607 Y=0.4458x²-17.213x+547.3 Also goal difference to rateform R2 value=0.7936 Y=0.2737x²+17.619x+866.17 Please note in all cases y is the rate form RATING and x will be the variable you already know, please also note these are end of season ratings so if you have a team’s points at a given stage of a season you will need to work out what they are likely to get at the end of the season same goes for goal difference. Please also note the rateform/elo rating was taken using a 7% and 5% kitty, This is designed only to give you an idea of a teams strength, I generally will use this over two seasons averaged. may be someone will find this useful