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UsManyDead's OVER 2,5 Goals System v3.0


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Re: OVER 2,5 GOALS With Statistics

I'm just seeing this now...I tried something like this once, and it didn't win. There's simply no correlation between recent totals and a given game's totals, and you end up playing too many games to be successful. Also, a lot of leagues are hit and miss...average goals look normal, but when you see the games you see a wide range between 4-3 games and 1-0 games (Spain Segunda and Italy B are both like this. What I'd found was that in general, leagues in which there are few clean sheets are better...games between lower-table teams are better than top teams...and games with high odds are better because goals are generally random events. And the best leagues change from year to year...the only consistently high-scoring leagues are in Holland, the Bundesliga and lower leagues in Norway and Sweden. The best this past year at turning up high-odds winners has been, strangely, France Ligue 1. That never used to be the case.
Spot on. I have done a lot of work on predicting totals, and the fact is that in all the leagues I have considered with soccer there is next to zero correlation between past performance and future performance in terms of totals. What's more, the totals predictions from a Poisson distribution are wrong, whereas the 1X2 predictions from the same distribution can be very good. Unlike soccer, though, games such as Basketball and American Football have much more predictable totals.
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Re: OVER 2,5 GOALS With Statistics

I've been thinking for a while now that the selections from Monday - Thursday had never brought some kind of profit' date=' actually it was only once when it did bring profit. So I am thinking that I should take only the matches from Friday - Sunday. I'm still thinking on this and I'll post here if I decide.[/quote']So after hyping up your system previously based on all selections... ...because it's gone pear-shaped in the first week, you're now saying that Monday to Thursday were shit all along. Right-o. No offence, but I'm starting to think you're making things up as you go along. First after-eventing performance, now this. If it had been seriously poor monday to thursday in those 6 weeks previously boasted about, wouldn't have you mentioned it on here sooner?
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Re: OVER 2,5 GOALS With Statistics Friday results:

Match

Odd

Result

Score

BULGARIA: A PFG

17:45 CSKA Sofia - Levski

@

2.40

UNDER

FinalScore:

1 - 0

ITALY: Serie B

20:00 Ascoli - Modena

@

2.40

UNDER

FinalScore:

0 - 1

POLAND: Ekstraklasa

19:00 Gornik Z. - Jagiellonia

@

2.30

UNDER

FinalScore:

2 - 0

POLAND: Division 1

20:00 Warta Poznan - Plock

@

2.10

OVER

FinalScore:

1 - 2

Profit/Loss: -190 Units

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Re: OVER 2,5 GOALS With Statistics

I'm just seeing this now...I tried something like this once, and it didn't win. There's simply no correlation between recent totals and a given game's totals, and you end up playing too many games to be successful. Also, a lot of leagues are hit and miss...average goals look normal, but when you see the games you see a wide range between 4-3 games and 1-0 games (Spain Segunda and Italy B are both like this. What I'd found was that in general, leagues in which there are few clean sheets are better...games between lower-table teams are better than top teams...and games with high odds are better because goals are generally random events. And the best leagues change from year to year...the only consistently high-scoring leagues are in Holland, the Bundesliga and lower leagues in Norway and Sweden. The best this past year at turning up high-odds winners has been, strangely, France Ligue 1. That never used to be the case.
Hy and thanks for your thoughts. You speak a lot of true facts, as I can see these kind of facts (ex.: when one match should go easily over and ends 0-0, and that "kill's me"). I know that it is pretty hard to predict the result to be either over/under, but I still try to adopt my system to some facts. Still it is hard to understand how the games that end-up with 2 goals at HT, don't go OVER and FT. I think there are teams that actually don't push harder only because they have a good lead, even though they could easily do it, or the losing team is trying pretty hard not to lose to high score instead of trying to score. Given all these facts I still try to get a correlation (if this even exits) and predict the result. I'll still put everything in it and try to get it to the level where this would be profitable. Thanks once again for your thoughts, and I still wait for any response or thoughts you might have regarding this.
Spot on. I have done a lot of work on predicting totals, and the fact is that in all the leagues I have considered with soccer there is next to zero correlation between past performance and future performance in terms of totals. What's more, the totals predictions from a Poisson distribution are wrong, whereas the 1X2 predictions from the same distribution can be very good. Unlike soccer, though, games such as Basketball and American Football have much more predictable totals.
Hy and thanks for your thoughts. Well it is true that it is hard to actually make a correlation between past and future results based on past events, or anything else. The strategy I have trying to apply is not the Poisson distribution, but still it doesn't look complete. The fact is I need to sort the a little more the games that I get from the system, and I working on a strategy right now to do just that. I never thought to change the sport, but maybe in the future I could try.
So after hyping up your system previously based on all selections... ...because it's gone pear-shaped in the first week, you're now saying that Monday to Thursday were shit all along. Right-o. No offence, but I'm starting to think you're making things up as you go along. First after-eventing performance, now this. If it had been seriously poor monday to thursday in those 6 weeks previously boasted about, wouldn't have you mentioned it on here sooner?
Hy once again, and thanks for your "negative" thoughts also. I really like your kind of people. Did you actually read anything I posted ???
A single notice before posting the selections for tomorrow: I already mentioned that this system is PAPER TRAIL meaning no money will be involved but I would like to mention it again :D. The system is currently involved in a lot of changes, and I'm trying to apply as much changes as possible. I'm examining the system from a lot of angles and calculate many different strategies in trying to find the best combination. I'm also experimenting with an O3,5 Goals system that proves a good go. As soon as I will decide on some modifications and adopt them I'll post the info here. Until now this seemed as the best combination but there seems to be more
You should read before write :eek. I clearly stated that the system is in continuum change, and therefor there might be a lot of changes, and that only when I decide on something I'll post it, not before, not after, when I want, cause after all this system is something I've worked on a lot and invested a lot of time. I've never posted that this is the final form and that anyone should follow the system with money. NO. I thought that here is a place where you could share your thoughts and try to get a good system using all the thoughts from other members to improve your system, like Grex, allthethings, v-zero. I wish there were more people who would post all the thoughts and past facts they have on OVER in general and of course applied to my system. You really had nothing interesting to say to help my system nor trying to give a good advice. Anything you saw was the Profit/Loss I've posted :eek. Really, no offence, you don't have to follow my system and I don't need your "I don't believe this, I don't believe that...". If you don't believe it then don't. There are plenty of other threads you can look at. And do you actually think that you know what I do??? If you have a profitable system and lots of post, does this give you the right to actually mock my system. I think not. I wanted to post the system here and watch the evolve together. I don't think that the first time you've posted your system it remained like that, you didn't change anything to it????:eek I don't want to make a fuss about this, but I really never asked something from you and never will, cause you just see what you want to see. I never said that my system is perfect. And to answer to your question: no I didn't thought about the first 4 days of the week, it just came to my mind to see how the system would do only in the week-end (including Friday). After looking at the results I saw that this could be a good thing. But really I would have to write all of this only if I decide to adopt this decision. And it would be really nice if the next time you post you actually take your time to read everything. I know that I might no write good in english, but you could make an effort if you actualy care.
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Re: OVER 2,5 GOALS With Statistics

You really had nothing interesting to say to help my system nor trying to give a good advice. Anything you saw was the Profit/Loss I've posted :eek. Really, no offence, you don't have to follow my system and I don't need your "I don't believe this, I don't believe that...". If you don't believe it then don't. There are plenty of other threads you can look at. And do you actually think that you know what I do??? If you have a profitable system and lots of post, does this give you the right to actually mock my system. I think not. I wanted to post the system here and watch the evolve together. I don't think that the first time you've posted your system it remained like that, you didn't change anything to it????:eek I don't want to make a fuss about this, but I really never asked something from you and never will, cause you just see what you want to see. I never said that my system is perfect. And to answer to your question: no I didn't thought about the first 4 days of the week, it just came to my mind to see how the system would do only in the week-end (including Friday). After looking at the results I saw that this could be a good thing. But really I would have to write all of this only if I decide to adopt this decision. And it would be really nice if the next time you post you actually take your time to read everything. I know that I might no write good in english, but you could make an effort if you actualy care.
Bravo, UsManyDead :clap
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Re: OVER 2,5 GOALS With Statistics

You should read before write . I clearly stated that the system is in continuum change, and therefor there might be a lot of changes, and that only when I decide on something I'll post it, not before, not after, when I want, cause after all this system is something I've worked on a lot and invested a lot of time. I've never posted that this is the final form and that anyone should follow the system with money. NO. I thought that here is a place where you could share your thoughts and try to get a good system using all the thoughts from other members to improve your system, like Grex, allthethings, v-zero. I wish there were more people who would post all the thoughts and past facts they have on OVER in general and of course applied to my system. You really had nothing interesting to say to help my system nor trying to give a good advice. Anything you saw was the Profit/Loss I've posted . Really, no offence, you don't have to follow my system and I don't need your "I don't believe this, I don't believe that...". If you don't believe it then don't. There are plenty of other threads you can look at. And do you actually think that you know what I do??? If you have a profitable system and lots of post, does this give you the right to actually mock my system. I think not. I wanted to post the system here and watch the evolve together. I don't think that the first time you've posted your system it remained like that, you didn't change anything to it???? I don't want to make a fuss about this, but I really never asked something from you and never will, cause you just see what you want to see. I never said that my system is perfect. And to answer to your question: no I didn't thought about the first 4 days of the week, it just came to my mind to see how the system would do only in the week-end (including Friday). After looking at the results I saw that this could be a good thing. But really I would have to write all of this only if I decide to adopt this decision. And it would be really nice if the next time you post you actually take your time to read everything. I know that I might no write good in english, but you could make an effort if you actualy care.
It's nothing to do with how many posts I have made, or whether my system is in profit. Stop clutching at straws when you've been found out. And the comment I last made was the first negative comment. Previously I highlighted that you were after eventing. The fact is that first of all you were after eventing, posting so called performance figures without the selections, 2 rules of this forum broken, and duly warned by one of the mods. Then, after hyping how great your system was, you finally post selections, it turns out to be an awful start, so you then suddenly declare that monday to thursday were poor all along. Surely 6 weeks of previous results could have allowed you to notice this? Do you not look at things like that? I know most other people would. Whether you ask for my comments or not, you posted on a public forum, and therefore must be prepared to receive criticism as well as congrats if it all went well. Hey I even wished you well a page back. So drop the holier than thou claptrap. I have read everything in this thread. Here's my helpful advice - there is no magic formula to calculate overs/unders, perhaps you'll realise that the way your current performance is heading.
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Re: OVER 2,5 GOALS With Statistics

It's nothing to do with how many posts I have made' date=' or whether my system is in profit. Stop clutching at straws when you've been found out. And the comment I last made was the first negative comment. Previously I highlighted that you were after eventing.[/quote'] I've been found out????:eek This means you've been investigating for some time now? I think that you spell the words to easily. I don't know what YOU had found out, but I think it is something YOU thought about and believe it is actually true. Hyping = To publicize or promote, especially by extravagant, inflated, or misleading claims. :eek lol man. I mean, really, this what you've understood? Then I would want to clarify one thing: I DIDN'T SAID THAT THIS SYSTEM IS PROFITABLE OR THAT IT WILL BRING PROFIT FROM THE FIRST DAY I POST. You start to make some accusations based on assumptions. To be honest I never knew that posting the actual Profit/Loss will be considered after posting. I never said that these will matter on this forum and said that I'll fresh new. I don't think that 6 week's of something happening should be enough to make a change and still don't think so. If it would be so then I would have to change a lot of things. Besides this I've wanted to make a system that will have selections for the whole week, and not only 3 days a week. That's why I didn't said I will adopt something. I said I was thinking about cause that was what I've done: think about it.
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Re: OVER 2,5 GOALS With Statistics Sunday Selections:

Match

Odd

ARGENTINA: Primera Division - Apertura

19:00 Lanus - Godoy Cruz

@

2.51

BRAZIL: Campeonato Brasileiro

20:00 Gremio - Flamengo RJ

@

2.05

COSTA RICA: Primera Division - Torneo de Invierno

04:00 Herediano - Saprissa

@

2.25

19:00 Zeledon - Orion

@

2.10

CZECH REPUBLIC: Gambrinus liga

16:00 Ceske Budejovice - Pribram

@

2.39

FRANCE: Ligue 1

18:00 Nice - Sochaux

@

2.19

18:00 Toulouse - Rennes

@

2.40

22:00 Valenciennes - Lille

@

2.25

GREECE: Super League

15:00 Ergotelis - Asteras Tripolis

@

2.70

IRAN: Pro League

15:10 Saipa - Foolad

@

1.95

ISRAEL: Ligat ha'Al

20:00 Beitar Jerusalem - Ramat Hasharon

@

2.05

ITALY: Serie A

16:00 Bologna - Atalanta

@

2.26

16:00 Fiorentina - Genoa

@

2.15

16:00 Lecce - Novara

@

2.07

JAPAN: J-League Division 2

09:00 Toyama - Gainare Tottori

@

2.40

MEXICO: Primera Division - Apertura

01:00 Jaguares De Chiapas - U.N.A.M.- Pumas

@

2.01

03:00 Pachuca - Monterrey

@

2.06

03:00 U.A.N.L.- Tigres - Santos Laguna

@

1.90

PARAGUAY: Primera Division - Clausura

21:30 Sp. Luqueno - Rubio Nu

@

2.10

POLAND: Ekstraklasa

18:00 Lech Poznan - Legia

@

2.35

POLAND: Division 1

12:30 Nieciecza - Leczna

@

2.02

PORTUGAL: Portuguese Liga

18:00 Leiria - Setubal

@

2.30

PORTUGAL: Liga de Honra

17:00 Oliveirense - Belenenses

@

2.63

17:30 Penafiel - Moreirense

@

2.28

18:00 U. Madeira - Estoril

@

2.36

SERBIA: Super Liga

17:00 Vojvodina - Subotica

@

2.35

SPAIN: Segunda Division

19:00 Villarreal B - Celta Vigo

@

1.95

Till saturday looks pretty good with all the matches from Italy Serie B being winners :clap. Let's hope for the best :hope

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Re: OVER 2,5 GOALS With Statistics Excellent performance on Saturday :clap

.... Profit/Loss: +976 Units
I presume the +976 units profit was for Saturday only. I think you should also quote the overall performance of the system since 24 October (number of bets, profit/loss, yield/ROI)...... or somebody (who shall remain nameless) may complain ;)
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Re: OVER 2,5 GOALS With Statistics

Excellent performance on Saturday :clap I presume the +976 units profit was for Saturday only. I think you should also quote the overall performance of the system since 24 October (number of bets, profit/loss, yield/ROI)...... or somebody (who shall remain nameless) may complain ;)
Yes. It was only for Saturday. I would like, if it is possible, to post the facts at the end of each week, and there I'll post all the info that is needed. I like to watch at it like this: from week - week, month - month, year - year :D. But if there are complains(You-Know-Who), I'll post them for each day, or summed up until the last day. Even if Saturday was a great day, I'm still on the red. I hope Sunday will also be a good day. You see this is why I thought about making the system only for week-ends (including Friday). They most of the time were on profit (all 3 days added). But I'll still think about this.:) Profit/Loss: -355 Units Units Staked: 6600 Units Nr. Selections: 66 Win Selections: 24 Loss Selections: 32 H/R: 42,85% Yield: -6,340%
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Re: OVER 2,5 GOALS With Statistics

Grex' date=' sucking UsManyDead's cock since 2011.[/quote'] :eek:eek:eek:eek:eek:eek:eek:eek:eek:eek:eek Man are you sick??????? I hope an admin sees this and take some actions against this kind of shouts. Can't we all just be friends (on forum) and just co-exist all together. Where does this go?? Nowhere. I think you are old enough to see this too, but still at your 32 years you are still more like a kid. And thanks for the good thoughts.
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Re: OVER 2,5 GOALS With Statistics Us Many Dead, I had said my opinions here and left. But Grex decided to bring the discussion here into a different thread. I can only guess that he has some sort of man love for you, bless him. Each to their own I guess. Anyway, I'm off to shag the missus. :ok

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Re: OVER 2,5 GOALS With Statistics

Us Many Dead, I had said my opinions here and left. But Grex decided to bring the discussion here into a different thread. I can only guess that he has some sort of man love for you, bless him. Each to their own I guess. Anyway, I'm off to shag the missus. :ok
I hope this kind of gestures end here. Also if you have nothing to say about my system or selections than I think you should just refrain yourself. I don't think this kind of post have a good effect over my thread and as I see it as my thread you should also apply to the rules. All you say is bullshit. I would like to ask you to stop this. And especially on my thread. You can send private messages. DON'T POLLUTE MY THREAD!!! And as I see all of this thing have started from me then I would like to end it. There are people who sustain me and there are haters, IMO. I don't know yet in which category you want to be, but I don't care. Man I'm so pissed off that you think you can come here and even on your thread and say all the things you want. Who the f00k do you think you are??? You should get your ass kicked for the bad manners you showed. I hope this will be the last time I have to say anything about this.
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Re: OVER 2,5 GOALS With Statistics Monday Selections:

MATCH

Odd

BULGARIA: A PFG

14:30 Ludogorets - Montana

@

1.93

COSTA RICA: Primera Division - Torneo de Invierno

00:00 San Carlos - Puntarenas

@

2.06

FRANCE: Ligue 2

21:30 Nantes - Lens

@

2.33

ISRAEL: Ligat ha'Al

20:50 Yehuda - Maccabi Tel Aviv

@

2.10

MEXICO: Primera Division - Apertura

00:00 Club America - Puebla

@

1.89

PORTUGAL: Portuguese Liga

22:15 Gil Vicente - Maritimo

@

2.31

ROMANIA: Liga I

19:00 Concordia - Mioveni

@

2.33

:hope

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Re: OVER 2,5 GOALS With Statistics Well about the fact that the first 4 days of the week are not profitable, I'll still investigate this and if it continues like this (most probably will) then I'll have to decide to drop these days. I think I'll still wait for 1-2 more weeks and conclude. If anything I'll post the info before applying any change.

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Re: OVER 2,5 GOALS With Statistics There have been already 4 games that had 2 goals at HT and ended that way. Man I hate these games so much that I feel like kicking someone :@. I mean I can't understand the matches that end 0-0 :wall (especially when I predict them to be OVER) and those that have 2 goals at HT (and you think - oh easy one more goal and it is all over) and end that way :@:@:@ :wall. Beside these I have no problem with others :D Let's hope the day will end good :hope

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Re: OVER 2,5 GOALS With Statistics Tuesday Selections:

MATCH

Odd

ARGENTINA: Primera Division - Apertura

00:05 Estudiantes L.P. - Racing Club

@

2.80

ITALY: Serie B

16:00 Albinoleffe - Ascoli

@

2.21

16:00 Empoli - Nocerina

@

2.28

16:00 Juve Stabia - Vicenza

@

2.25

19:00 Reggina - Torino

@

2.28

RUSSIA: Division 1

17:00 Shinnik Yaroslavl - D. Bryansk

@

2.25

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Re: OVER 2,5 GOALS With Statistics Monday Selections:

Match

Odd

Result

Score

BULGARIA: A PFG

14:30 Ludogorets - Montana

@

1.93

OVER

FinalScore:

3 - 0

COSTA RICA: Primera Division - Torneo de Invierno

00:00 San Carlos - Puntarenas

@

2.06

UNDER

FinalScore:

0 - 0

FRANCE: Ligue 2

21:30 Nantes - Lens

@

2.33

UNDER

FinalScore

1 - 0

ISRAEL: Ligat ha'Al

20:50 Yehuda - Maccabi Tel Aviv

@

2.10

UNDER

FinalScore

0 - 0

MEXICO: Primera Division - Apertura

00:00 Club America - Puebla

@

1.89

OVER

FinalScore:

2 - 3

PORTUGAL: Portuguese Liga

22:15 Gil Vicente - Maritimo

@

2.31

Abandoned

ROMANIA: Liga I

19:00 Concordia - Mioveni

@

2.33

OVER

FinalScore:

3 - 1

Profit/Loss Day: +15 Units

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Re: OVER 2,5 GOALS With Statistics Hy. I have an important problem: I don't have a good site for future fixtures from football - all of them from all the leagues from all the countries. Until now I have used flashscore, but this one has errors in the fact that sometimes it gives you matches that will not play and sometimes it DOES NOT HAVE THE MATCHES THAT WILL PLAY, and update too late. As an example yesterday there was a match from Costa Rica : Zeledon - Orion, that when I looked for all the matches Sunday it wasn't there and yesterday I saw it and analyzed it and it should have been an selection :@. The match unfortunately started when I looked at it and had already a goal in it ('3) and it was impossible to post it here.:wall Of course the match ended OVER and had the best odd 2.20.:wall So please if someone has knowledge of such a site. It would be preferably if it would have a nice layout so I can copy-paste it in excel. Thanks.

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Re: OVER 2,5 GOALS With Statistics Well I've seen that match on more other sites. Don't know whom to believe,but IMO it is better to be there even if it will not play rather than not be there and be updated with 3-4 hours before kick off. I can't watch 10 times a day on a website to see which matches has been added. Think on Saturday when there are like ~450 matches playing :eek. So it is better to be there, I analyze it and if doesn't play that's it, if it does than it is good. But the way some sites work I'm omitting matches. The last one even won :sad. That's why I need a trusted source that someone had some experience with it and never proved wrong, or at least the error is corrected with 1-2 days before the match kickoff. Even soccerway has errors I've encountered. But I use that site only for statistics. Betexplorer and Soccerway are nice, but unfortunately I can't set the time. In my region now is GMT +2, which affects me when analyzing matches that are played after 00:00 (midnight). I'm still waiting for sites. Thank you

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