UsManyDead Posted October 21, 2011 Author Share Posted October 21, 2011 Re: OVER 2,5 GOALS With Statistics Hello everyone. This system was "almost" dead for some time now, but I've decided to revive it and take another look at it. So far all things good. I've run this system for 5 weeks, and if we include this week too there are 6 weeks in total. I now that no one is interested in past results if the selections weren't made public before kick-off. So I'll only put what the system has given this far, and starting the next week I'll post my selections here, and see how it goes. Hopefully good :D. After a lot of failures with the UNDER's I've decided to drop them, since I can't select them good enough to make profit. So the title of the thread was also changed only on OVER 2,5 Goals. The system is still paper-trail, so no money involved. Anyone who wishes to follow the system with real cash they're doing it with the risk of loosing. I don't encourage anyone to put money! Well to the facts now: Starting Bank: 4000 Units Bet: 100 Units/Match (2,5% of Bankroll) Week 1: OVER 2,5 Goals Profit/Loss: +281 Units Units Staked: 7700 Units Nr. Selections: 77 Yield: 3,649% Week 2: OVER 2,5 Goals Profit/Loss: +660 Units Units Staked: 11100 Units Nr. Selections: 111 Yield: 5,946% Week 3: OVER 2,5 Goals Profit/Loss: +1367 Units Units Staked: 10300 Units Nr. Selections: 103 Yield: 13,272% Week 4: OVER 2,5 Goals Profit/Loss: -343 Units Units Staked: 3800 Units Nr. Selections: 38 Yield: -9,026% Month1: OVER 2,5 Goals Overall Profit/Loss: +1965 Units Units Staked: 32900 Units Nr. Selections: 329 Yield: 5,973% ROI: 49,125% Week 5: OVER 2,5 Goals Profit/Loss: -219 Units Units Staked: 7800 Units Nr. Selections: 103 Yield: -2,808% Week 6: OVER 2,5 Goals Profit/Loss: Soon to come after the week-end Units Staked: 0 Units Nr. Selections: 0 Yield: 0% Well until now I am still in profit, even though there were two very hard weeks (the last two) when there were a lot of hard leagues playing and no important league because of the Euro - Qualification :eyes. Even so in the second bad week the week-end had some more matches (as you can see from the selections but these weren't enough). I now that this doesn't matter too much, but for me it does, since I know that I followed them correctly. This post was made to reopen the thread. Wish me luck and let's see if we can beat the bookies at their game. :hope Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grex Posted October 21, 2011 Share Posted October 21, 2011 Re: OVER 2,5 GOALS With Statistics I'm a bit confused..... are you going to start posting your selections before the event, or are you just going to post your profit/loss after the weekend ? If it is the latter, then it is all rather pointless. Also, for Month 1, how can the "Yield" and the "ROI" be different ? Excuse me if I am being a bit dense :\ Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UsManyDead Posted October 21, 2011 Author Share Posted October 21, 2011 Re: OVER 2,5 GOALS With Statistics I'm a bit confused..... are you going to start posting your selections before the event' date= or are you just going to post your profit/loss after the weekend ? If it is the latter, then it is all rather pointless. No, I'll post my selections before kick-off, that's why I want to start from monday, fresh :D. Only the results from week 6 will be posted only as profit/loss. Also' date=' for Month 1, how can the "Yield" and the "ROI" be different ? Well, from what I've seen the yield is calculated by dividing the whole profit (mine 1965) by what you've staked (32900). The ROI (return of investment) is calculated, by my opinion (and I think I am right :D) by dividing the whole profit by the whole bank with which you start. Am I wrong? :$ Excuse me if I am being a bit dense :\ No problem. I understood the confusion I've created. :ok Glad to hear from you and hope we can both have some good results :ok Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grex Posted October 21, 2011 Share Posted October 21, 2011 Re: OVER 2,5 GOALS With Statistics Thanks for the clarification regarding you posting strategy.... now I understand :ok I think you will find that Yield and ROI are exactly the same..... and are calculated by dividing the total profit/loss by the total amount staked (invested). Good luck with your system.... I hope it does better than my "overs" system has been doing this season ;) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UsManyDead Posted October 21, 2011 Author Share Posted October 21, 2011 Re: OVER 2,5 GOALS With Statistics I think you will find that Yield and ROI are exactly the same..... and are calculated by dividing the total profit/loss by the total amount staked (invested). Well on this point I don't agree :D. If you start with a bank of 4000 Units and you bet 100 Matches (100 Units/Match) =>10000 Units staked, it doesn't mean that you had 10000 Units at the beginning. You've only risked 4000 Units, and by wining you re-bet your initial bank over and over again. So I still think that this way should be calculated. (unless you have a better argument :D). Besides this I hope we both manage to beat the bookies :ok Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grex Posted October 21, 2011 Share Posted October 21, 2011 Re: OVER 2,5 GOALS With Statistics No, I am sorry.... I think we will have to agree to disagree on this one. Your initial bank has nothing to do with the calculation. In the example you use, you have risked (losing) 10,000 units, not 4,000 units. So your yield (or ROI) should be based on your profit/loss divided by 10,000. Anyway, as long as you make a profit, you have "beaten the bookies" :ok Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FleetFanatic Posted October 21, 2011 Share Posted October 21, 2011 Re: OVER 2,5 GOALS With Statistics When doing level stakes yields/roi, the initial bank is irrelevant, as Grex has said. It is calculated by how much you have staked in total, regardless of whether it has come from the starting bank or subsequent winning. It's the standard way of calculating things, whether you agree with it or not. When you bet systematically you use the same money over and over again, the yield tells you your profit, on average, per unit staked. Yield = Profit or Loss / Total staked. Yield is also known as Return On Investment, and they are exactly the same thing. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FleetFanatic Posted October 21, 2011 Share Posted October 21, 2011 Re: OVER 2,5 GOALS With Statistics Anyway, it's pointless for the moment. Your current yield for the current weeks 1/2/3/4/5/6 is zero, as we're not interested in weeks 1-5 (after eventing) and week 6 we have yet to see any selections. May I suggest you read some rules. http://forum.punterslounge.com/f21/rules-posting-betting-systems-35636/ Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
staffy Posted October 21, 2011 Share Posted October 21, 2011 Re: OVER 2,5 GOALS With Statistics As per above poster Please check out the rules or the thread will be locked. No after eventing please. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grex Posted October 21, 2011 Share Posted October 21, 2011 Re: OVER 2,5 GOALS With Statistics Don't take it personally, UsManyDead..... people are just trying to be helpful ;) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UsManyDead Posted October 22, 2011 Author Share Posted October 22, 2011 Re: OVER 2,5 GOALS With Statistics No' date= I am sorry.... I think we will have to agree to disagree on this one. Your initial bank has nothing to do with the calculation. In the example you use, you have risked (losing) 10,000 units, not 4,000 units. So your yield (or ROI) should be based on your profit/loss divided by 10,000. When doing level stakes yields/roi, the initial bank is irrelevant, as Grex has said. It is calculated by how much you have staked in total, regardless of whether it has come from the starting bank or subsequent winning. It's the standard way of calculating things, whether you agree with it or not. When you bet systematically you use the same money over and over again, the yield tells you your profit, on average, per unit staked. Yield = Profit or Loss / Total staked. Yield is also known as Return On Investment, and they are exactly the same thing. Ok. I got it now. Thanks for the clarification :ok Anyway, it's pointless for the moment. Your current yield for the current weeks 1/2/3/4/5/6 is zero, as we're not interested in weeks 1-5 (after eventing) and week 6 we have yet to see any selections. May I suggest you read some rules. http://forum.punterslounge.com/f21/rules-posting-betting-systems-35636/ As per above poster Please check out the rules or the thread will be locked. No after eventing please. I didn't post what the system has picked till now (eg.: selections), I've just posted what the system could be capable of in terms of profit/loss. Also I didn't post the profit/loss to brag about it :sad. I thought that anyone who would be interest to follow this system would also be interested to see how it performed till now. That's the only reason. I didn't want to break any rules so I didn't post the selections. Don't take it personally, UsManyDead..... people are just trying to be helpful ;) No problem. I'm not the kind of guy who would be upset over something like this :D I just want to make clear one thing: I've posted only the profit/loss and nr of selections to show how the system did in the period I've tested it before starting to post any selections here. In the end the only thing I want to achieve is: Anyway' date= as long as you make a profit, you have "beaten the bookies". :ok Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FleetFanatic Posted October 22, 2011 Share Posted October 22, 2011 Re: OVER 2,5 GOALS With Statistics Excellent. For the purpose of your selections, your performance (and therefore yield) starts from when you post selections, please don't include past performance in your figures, as even without the selections, it would still be after eventing. All we are interested in is the performance of posted selections. Finally, good luck. :ok Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UsManyDead Posted October 23, 2011 Author Share Posted October 23, 2011 Re: OVER 2,5 GOALS With Statistics Monday Selections: FRANCE: Ligue 2 21:30 Boulogne - Nantes @ 2.24 ISRAEL: Ligat ha'Al 21:50 Sakhnin - Beitar Jerusalem @ 2.21 ITALY: Serie B 21:45 Gubbio - Torino @ 2.11 POLAND: Ekstraklasa 19:30 Cracovia - Polonia Warszawa @ 2.19 ROMANIA: Liga I 18:00 Astra Ploiesti - Vaslui @ 2.49 The end of the week 6 will be posted after the last match ends. Let's hope for a good week :hope Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grex Posted October 23, 2011 Share Posted October 23, 2011 Re: OVER 2,5 GOALS With Statistics Looking forward to seeing how the first "live" selections go...... by the way, nice format... its very useful to post the league, the date and even the KO time :ok I notice you are going for >2.5 at very high odds.... good luck :hope Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UsManyDead Posted October 23, 2011 Author Share Posted October 23, 2011 Re: OVER 2,5 GOALS With Statistics Well not always there will be odds as high as these, but there are times when these come. Let's hope they are winners :hope. The time is GMT +3, my time, and I hope it does help :). Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UsManyDead Posted October 23, 2011 Author Share Posted October 23, 2011 Re: OVER 2,5 GOALS With Statistics Week 6: OVER 2,5 Goals Profit/Loss: +318 Units Units Staked: 7900 Units Nr. Selections: 79 Yield: 4,025% Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UsManyDead Posted October 24, 2011 Author Share Posted October 24, 2011 Re: OVER 2,5 GOALS With Statistics A single notice before posting the selections for tomorrow: I already mentioned that this system is PAPER TRAIL meaning no money will be involved but I would like to mention it again :D. The system is currently involved in a lot of changes, and I'm trying to apply as much changes as possible. I'm examining the system from a lot of angles and calculate many different strategies in trying to find the best combination. I'm also experimenting with an O3,5 Goals system that proves a good go. As soon as I will decide on some modifications and adopt them I'll post the info here. Until now this seemed as the best combination but there seems to be more :loon. I would like to ask all those of you who had a long run system which would be the best stability (I know that this differs from system to system): as many selections as possible even though you include a lot of bad selections or as few selections as possible even though you rule out a lot of good selections and of course of bad selections? Anyway I am aware that the most important should be the yield and if you actually hit a >45% H/R over a period of time than this should be taken care of better with few selections than a lot. But what it is pretty intriguing is the profit that you actually make: with few selections you get a good yield but small profit if you compare it with a lot of selections, in which case you get a smaller yield but a greater profit. So would it be actually wise to try to adopt the stake to your system? Which method would be the best to start from? Hope I didn't bother you all with my thoughts :) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UsManyDead Posted October 24, 2011 Author Share Posted October 24, 2011 Re: OVER 2,5 GOALS With Statistics Tuesday Selections: ARGENTINA: Primera Division - Apertura 21:00 Arsenal Sarandi - San Lorenzo @ 2.73 SPAIN: Segunda Division 19:00 Valladolid - Alcoyano @ 2.08 23:00 Celta Vigo - Girona @ 2.27 23:00 Villarreal B - Hercules @ 2.25 A lot of bookmakers have removed the matches from Spain Segunda Division, and a lot of odds modifications. Anyway these are the matches for tomorrow :hope Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grex Posted October 24, 2011 Share Posted October 24, 2011 Re: OVER 2,5 GOALS With Statistics Looks like 2 out of 5 for Monday.... at those odds, it's not a bad start ;) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UsManyDead Posted October 24, 2011 Author Share Posted October 24, 2011 Re: OVER 2,5 GOALS With Statistics Hy Grex. It is good to get 2/5, especially with odds this high, but I was really impressed by the game Torino played. I would have expected them to win and to mark at least. Anyway, this is how the games ended. So the facts Day 1: League Odd Result Score FRANCE: Ligue 2 21:30 Boulogne - Nantes @ 2.24 OVER FinalScore: 2 - 1 ISRAEL: Ligat ha'Al 21:50 Sakhnin - Beitar Jerusalem @ 2.21 OVER FinalScore: 3 - 0 ITALY: Serie B 21:45 Gubbio - Torino @ 2.11 UNDER FinalScore: 1 - 0 POLAND: Ekstraklasa 19:30 Cracovia - Polonia Warszawa @ 2.19 UNDER FinalScore: 0 - 0 ROMANIA: Liga I 18:00 Astra Ploiesti - Vaslui @ 2.49 UNDER FinalScore: 1 - 0 Profit/Loss: -55 Units This is a typical start... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UsManyDead Posted October 25, 2011 Author Share Posted October 25, 2011 Re: OVER 2,5 GOALS With Statistics Wednesday selections: ARGENTINA: Primera Division - Apertura 01:10 Atl. Rafaela - Argentinos Jrs @ 2.58 ITALY: Serie A 21:45 Atalanta - Inter @ 2.13 21:45 Cesena - Cagliari @ 2.46 21:45 Lazio - Catania @ 3.00 JAPAN: J-League Division 2 13:00 Shonan - Kyoto @ 2.09 MEXICO: Primera Division - Apertura 04:30 Monarcas - Pachuca @ 2.11 SPAIN: Segunda Division 22:00 Huesca - Barcelona B @ 2.10 22:00 Xerez - Sabadell @ 2.18 TURKEY: SuperLiga 18:00 Samsunspor - Kardemir Karabuk @ 2.16 :hope:hope:hope Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grex Posted October 25, 2011 Share Posted October 25, 2011 Re: OVER 2,5 GOALS With Statistics Lazio-Catania @ 3.00 :eek..... are you sure? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UsManyDead Posted October 25, 2011 Author Share Posted October 25, 2011 Re: OVER 2,5 GOALS With Statistics Lazio-Catania @ 3.00 :eek..... are you sure? :eek:eek:eek I didn't see it...It truly is wrong. The real best odd was @ 2.00. Thank you very much for letting me know. It would have been something to have it at these odds :loon. :hope for the games. Oh and by the way I can't edit it there so I will edit it when I post the results. The game remains a selection. :hope Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UsManyDead Posted October 25, 2011 Author Share Posted October 25, 2011 Re: OVER 2,5 GOALS With Statistics Tuesday Selections: League Odd Result Score ARGENTINA: Primera Division - Apertura 21:00 Arsenal Sarandi - San Lorenzo @ 2.73 UNDER FinalScore: 1 - 0 SPAIN: Segunda Division 19:00 Valladolid - Alcoyano @ 2.08 UNDER FinalScore: 2 - 0 23:00 Celta Vigo - Girona @ 2.27 UNDER FinalScore: 2 - 0 23:00 Villarreal B - Hercules @ 2.25 UNDER FinalScore: 0 - 1 :sad Profit/Loss: -400 Units Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UsManyDead Posted October 26, 2011 Author Share Posted October 26, 2011 Re: OVER 2,5 GOALS With Statistics Thursday Selections: Match Odds BULGARIA: A PFG 16:30 Kaliakra - Botev Vratsa @ 2.15 ITALY: Serie A 21:45 Palermo - Lecce @ 1.90 MEXICO: Primera Division - Apertura 04:00 Monterrey - Atlas @ 2.02 05:00 U.N.A.M.- Pumas - Atlante @ 2.08 SPAIN: Primera Division 21:00 Espanyol - Betis @ 2.14 SPAIN: Segunda Division 21:00 Cartagena - Dep. La Coruna @ 2.27 TURKEY: SuperLiga 20:30 V. Manisaspor - Ankaragucu @ 2.11 Until now every Thursday was my "Black Friday". Let's hope this thing changes :hope Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UsManyDead Posted October 26, 2011 Author Share Posted October 26, 2011 Re: OVER 2,5 GOALS With Statistics Wednesday selections: Match Odd Result Score ARGENTINA: Primera Division - Apertura 01:10 Atl. Rafaela - Argentinos Jrs @ 2.58 OVER FinalScore: 3 - 1 ITALY: Serie A 21:45 Atalanta - Inter @ 2.13 UNDER FinalScore: 1 - 1 21:45 Cesena - Cagliari @ 2.46 UNDER FinalScore: 1 - 1 21:45 Lazio - Catania @ 2.00 UNDER FinalScore: 1 - 1 JAPAN: J-League Division 2 13:00 Shonan - Kyoto @ 2.09 UNDER FinalScore: 0 - 1 MEXICO: Primera Division - Apertura 04:30 Monarcas - Pachuca @ 2.11 OVER FinalScore: 2 - 2 SPAIN: Segunda Division 22:00 Huesca - Barcelona B @ 2.10 UNDER FinalScore: 0 - 1 22:00 Xerez - Sabadell @ 2.18 OVER FinalScore: 2 - 2 TURKEY: SuperLiga 18:00 Samsunspor - Kardemir Karabuk @ 2.16 UNDER FinalScore: 0 - 0 After some incredible results in Italy Serie A, where all 3 matches ended 1 - 1 :puke, after 2 of them were already 1-1 at HT, the 3rd day also brings a loss. :sad Profit/Loss: -213 Units Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UsManyDead Posted October 27, 2011 Author Share Posted October 27, 2011 Re: OVER 2,5 GOALS With Statistics Friday Selections: Match Odd BULGARIA: A PFG 17:45 CSKA Sofia - Levski @ 2.40 ITALY: Serie B 20:00 Ascoli - Modena @ 2.40 POLAND: Ekstraklasa 19:00 Gornik Z. - Jagiellonia @ 2.30 POLAND: Division 1 20:00 Warta Poznan - Plock @ 2.10 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UsManyDead Posted October 28, 2011 Author Share Posted October 28, 2011 Re: OVER 2,5 GOALS With Statistics Thursday Selections: Match Odd Result Score BULGARIA: A PFG 16:30 Kaliakra - Botev Vratsa @ 2.15 UNDER FinalScore: 0 - 0 ITALY: Serie A 21:45 Palermo - Lecce @ 1.90 UNDER FinalScore: 2 - 0 MEXICO: Primera Division - Apertura 04:00 Monterrey - Atlas @ 2.02 UNDER FinalScore: 2 - 0 05:00 U.N.A.M.- Pumas - Atlante @ 2.08 UNDER FinalScore: 1 - 0 SPAIN: Primera Division 21:00 Espanyol - Betis @ 2.14 UNDER FinalScore: 1 - 0 SPAIN: Segunda Division 21:00 Cartagena - Dep. La Coruna @ 2.27 OVER FinalScore: 2 - 1 TURKEY: SuperLiga 20:30 V. Manisaspor - Ankaragucu @ 2.11 UNDER FinalScore: 2 - 0 Well it was almost a "black Friday", but still a bad day. I've been thinking for a while now that the selections from Monday - Thursday had never brought some kind of profit, actually it was only once when it did bring profit. So I am thinking that I should take only the matches from Friday - Sunday. I'm still thinking on this and I'll post here if I decide. Profit/Loss: -473 Units Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UsManyDead Posted October 28, 2011 Author Share Posted October 28, 2011 Re: OVER 2,5 GOALS With Statistics Saturday Selections: Match Odd CROATIA: 1. HNL 17:00 Zadar - Belupo @ 2.26 ENGLAND: Premier League 17:00 Sunderland - Aston Villa @ 2.09 ENGLAND: League One 17:00 Carlisle - Oldham @ 2.00 FRANCE: Ligue 1 20:00 Ajaccio - Bordeaux @ 2.25 20:00 Dijon - Marseille @ 2.25 20:00 Montpellier - Nancy @ 2.18 GERMANY: Bundesliga 16:30 Schalke - Hoffenheim @ 1.95 IRELAND: Division 1 21:45 Shelbourne - Cork City @ 2.11 ISRAEL: Ligat ha'Al 20:30 Maccabi Petach Tikva - Maccabi Haifa @ 1.98 ITALY: Serie A 19:00 AS Roma - AC Milan @ 2.15 ITALY: Serie B 16:00 Brescia - Reggina @ 2.31 16:00 Cittadella - Verona @ 2.31 16:00 Crotone - Padova @ 2.28 16:00 Nocerina - Sampdoria @ 2.31 16:00 Vicenza - Albinoleffe @ 2.23 PORTUGAL: Liga de Honra 17:30 Freamunde - Leixoes @ 2.35 ROMANIA: Liga I 19:00 Ceahlaul - Vointa Sibiu @ 2.33 21:30 Universitatea Cluj - Din. Bucuresti @ 2.03 SCOTLAND: Premier League 17:00 Dunfermline - Dundee Utd @ 1.90 SCOTLAND: Division 1 17:00 Hamilton - Ayr @ 1.95 17:00 Morton - Ross County @ 2.10 SOUTH AFRICA: Premier League 16:30 Bidvest Wits - Supersport Utd @ 2.00 19:00 Amazulu - Bloem Celtic @ 2.40 SPAIN: Primera Division 19:00 Villarreal - Rayo Vallecano @ 2.00 SPAIN: Segunda Division 19:00 Alcorcon - Guadalajara @ 2.18 19:00 Huesca - Elche @ 2.36 TURKEY: Bank Asya 1. Lig 19:00 Sakaryaspor - Denizlispor @ 2.20 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
allthethings Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 Re: OVER 2,5 GOALS With Statistics I'm just seeing this now...I tried something like this once, and it didn't win. There's simply no correlation between recent totals and a given game's totals, and you end up playing too many games to be successful. Also, a lot of leagues are hit and miss...average goals look normal, but when you see the games you see a wide range between 4-3 games and 1-0 games (Spain Segunda and Italy B are both like this. What I'd found was that in general, leagues in which there are few clean sheets are better...games between lower-table teams are better than top teams...and games with high odds are better because goals are generally random events. And the best leagues change from year to year...the only consistently high-scoring leagues are in Holland, the Bundesliga and lower leagues in Norway and Sweden. The best this past year at turning up high-odds winners has been, strangely, France Ligue 1. That never used to be the case. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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