UsManyDead Posted April 18, 2011 Share Posted April 18, 2011 Hello. This is my first threat on this forum, and hopefully I will do everything correct from the beginning. What I want to do is share my new system with you, which is for the time being, a secret system. What I can tell you about my system? I pick matches from all over the countries/leagues, but insist on those with a higher rate of goals/match and a higher overall matches finishing Over 2,5 goals. I choose the matches based on statistics of goals both for home and away team. Unfortunately this is as much as I would like to say about my system so far. It is a new system, and I just started to use it. Back-Testing? I have some back-testing, but I couldn't do it for a long period of time, since every match affects the statistics for the next match and so on. I actually started the system last week. I will provide the results, although you might not believe it. On Paper System? Yes. This is definitely a "on paper system", and I would suggest you to don't take my predictions as correct, even if the strike is high. As I said this is still work in progress, as I started rather at the end of the season, but took some new leagues that just started to see how it works. Staking Plan? I am an adept of the flat bet. Anything else is uncertain for me and it involves more risks than winnings. There will be no "loss recovery" system used. If it is a loss a loss it will remain. Summary: Starting bank: 4000 Units Staking/match: 100 Units ( 2,5 % of Bankroll ) An important thing I want to mention: I read the muppet77, Grex and relf's systems, and this is what gave me boost to actually post the system here. Thanks. Back to the business. As I said I started the system last week. I will post the results here, but only for those who are curios, as I saw that these shouldn't count. Anyway I know that they are true, that I picked them before the match started, and that is enough for me. Last week I had the following stats for OVER: Starting bank: 4000 Units Current bank: 6625 Units Total staked: 9600 Units ( 100 u/m with 96 selections) Number of bets: 96 Winning bets: 60 Losing bets: 36 Strike rate: 62,5 % Yield: 27,343 % Profit: + 2625 Units Profit Increase/Decrease Bankroll by: + 65,625 % Last week I had the following stats for UNDER: (not profitable for the first week) Starting bank: 4000 Units Current bank: 3956 Units Total staked: 4100 Units ( 100 u/m with 41 selections) Number of bets: 41 Winning bets: 20 Losing bets: 21 Strike rate: 48,78 % Yield: - 1,073 % Profit: - 44 Units Profit Increase/Decrease Bankroll by: - 1,10 % I don't think it is in any way needed to post my selections, since it is already too good to be true. Anyway I am amazed myself and at the same time know, that this is just the beginning. Or better said, the "beginners luck". Anyway we will see how this goes on. The OVER works pretty good for now, but the UNDER is not good at all. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
staffy Posted April 18, 2011 Share Posted April 18, 2011 Re: OVER / UNDER 2,5 GOALS With Statistics Nice post and good luck. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UsManyDead Posted April 18, 2011 Author Share Posted April 18, 2011 Re: OVER / UNDER 2,5 GOALS With Statistics The picks for today. Unfortunately the big part of them started already. Hope you believe me :nana OVER: Karlsruher-Augsburg @ 1,93 E. Piraeus-Panthrakikos @ 2,50 (already finished over) WIN UNDER: Gral Caballero-Olimpia Asuncion @ 2.05 (already finished over) LOSS Din. Kiev-Zorya @ 2,20 (in play at the moment '80 min, 2-0) From tomorrow all picks will be before kick time. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UsManyDead Posted April 18, 2011 Author Share Posted April 18, 2011 Re: OVER / UNDER 2,5 GOALS With Statistics Nice post and good luck. Thank you. I hope I will have some luck...and that I will never run out of it :D Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
staffy Posted April 18, 2011 Share Posted April 18, 2011 Re: OVER / UNDER 2,5 GOALS With Statistics The picks for today. Unfortunately the big part of them started already. Hope you believe me :nana OVER: Karlsruher-Augsburg @ 1,93 E. Piraeus-Panthrakikos @ 2,50 (already finished over) WIN UNDER: Gral Caballero-Olimpia Asuncion @ 2.05 (already finished over) LOSS Din. Kiev-Zorya @ 2,20 (in play at the moment '80 min, 2-0) From tomorrow all picks will be before kick time. I'll let you off your after eventing this once but next time expect your post to be deleted ;) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UsManyDead Posted April 18, 2011 Author Share Posted April 18, 2011 Re: OVER / UNDER 2,5 GOALS With Statistics I'll let you off your after eventing this once but next time expect your post to be deleted ;) Ok. Thank you :notworthy This will never happen again. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UsManyDead Posted April 18, 2011 Author Share Posted April 18, 2011 Re: OVER / UNDER 2,5 GOALS With Statistics The picks for today. OVER: Karlsruher-Augsburg @ 1,93 LOSS E. Piraeus-Panthrakikos @ 2,50 WIN UNDER: Gral Caballero-Olimpia Asuncion @ 2.05 LOSS Din. Kiev-Zorya @ 2,20 WIN I will update the balance at the end of each week. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UsManyDead Posted April 18, 2011 Author Share Posted April 18, 2011 Re: OVER / UNDER 2,5 GOALS With Statistics Picks for tomorrow. Let's see how the system works. OVER: Newcastle-Manchester Utd @ 1.98 Burnley-Middlesbrough @ 1.95 Kidderminster-Darlington @ 1.93 Staines Town-Maidenhead @ 1.95 Dundee Utd-Rangers @ 1.93 Falkirk-Partick @ 2.00 Queen of South-Ross County @ 2.00 UNDER: Bradford-Burton @ 1.98 Guiseley-Gloucester @ 2.05 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grex Posted April 18, 2011 Share Posted April 18, 2011 Re: OVER / UNDER 2,5 GOALS With Statistics Good luck with this, UsManyDead :ok A few questions / comments............... What I can tell you about my system? I pick matches from all over the countries/leagues, but insist on those with a higher rate of goals/match and a higher overall matches finishing Over 2,5 goals. I choose the matches based on statistics of goals both for home and away team. Unfortunately this is as much as I would like to say about my system so far. It is a new system, and I just started to use it. I understand why you go for the higher-scoring leagues but, of course, this is reflected in the lower odds being offered. It may be better to adjust your system to get a good strike rate on the lower-scoring leagues where the odds will generally be higher..... just a thought. Back-Testing? I have some back-testing, but I couldn't do it for a long period of time, since every match affects the statistics for the next match and so on. I actually started the system last week. I will provide the results, although you might not believe it. Can you not back-test your system over a longer period by setting up an Excel database with data from football-data.co.uk and "simulate" your system using basic Excel functions ? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UsManyDead Posted April 18, 2011 Author Share Posted April 18, 2011 Re: OVER / UNDER 2,5 GOALS With Statistics First of all thank you for your thoughts. First question: I understand why you go for the higher-scoring leagues but, of course, this is reflected in the lower odds being offered. It may be better to adjust your system to get a good strike rate on the lower-scoring leagues where the odds will generally be higher..... just a thought. Actually I have thought for going into lower-scoring leagues, like France League 2, but there are a lot of others too. At the moment it's a little hard to get the exact margin by which to guide myself and choose the matches, but as this progresses I am sure that I will figure it out. I think I have expressed myself wrong: I meant I am actually analyzing all matches that are played each day. I said that I insist on those with high scores, because I can get either a good UNDER, or an OVER at high odds. Either way the chances should be good for both here. Can you not back-test your system over a longer period by setting up an Excel database with data from football-data.co.uk and "simulate" your system using basic Excel functions ? Actually it would be great to find a good database of the matches, but as a I mentioned I would need a database that can be seen as in "running", like the actual leagues that are playing at the moment. After each match the statistics change. I need to see it from the first game, till the last one, but having it match by match. I don't know if I am making myself clear enough. I would love to have a long back-test. This way I would know already a half of the test. If you think there is such a site I would love to know about it, as I said. After a month or so, I would go back to my selections and try to see the exact hit on every country/league, and make myself more adjustments based on the results. This system arrived here after 3 months of trying and adjusting everything to fit, but there is still a lot of work to do, since I have started to include a lot more leagues that are unknown. Thanks again for your thoughts. Every idea/comment/advice is welcomed. Any site that could help is as well welcomed :D. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grex Posted April 18, 2011 Share Posted April 18, 2011 Re: OVER / UNDER 2,5 GOALS With Statistics I would love to have a long back-test. This way I would know already a half of the test. If you think there is such a site I would love to know about it' date=' as I said.[/quote'] I mentioned http://football-data.co.uk site (it's free) which has results for all the major European leagues (and some of the more "minor" leagues) for the past 15 or so years.... and over/under odds for the past 7 or 8 seasons. If you are familiar with Excel, then you can download the data and effectively "live" test your system. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UsManyDead Posted April 19, 2011 Author Share Posted April 19, 2011 Re: OVER / UNDER 2,5 GOALS With Statistics I mentioned http://football-data.co.uk site (it's free) which has results for all the major European leagues (and some of the more "minor" leagues) for the past 15 or so years.... and over/under odds for the past 7 or 8 seasons. If you are familiar with Excel' date= then you can download the data and effectively "live" test your system. Well I hit where you were trying to guide me. It's not like what I've been looking for, but it has the matches one by one. What remains is for me to actually make a league table in which to include the teams and after that calculate everything I need. It will be a lot of work, but I think it will be rewarded in the end. As soon as I will finish with the work I'll post my results. Thank you very much :loon By the way do you know of a site that actually has all the matches to be played the next day/whole week. I am currently working with flashscore, but they seem to miss/include some matches that don't play. And this is a bit frustrating, especially in week-ends, when there are like 300 matches, it is hard to see the new added matches. Thanks. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UsManyDead Posted April 19, 2011 Author Share Posted April 19, 2011 Re: OVER / UNDER 2,5 GOALS With Statistics A quick reply as there were some more matches for today. The matches haven't started. OVER: Pahang-Negeri Sembilan @ 2.05 PBDKTT-Team-Johor FC @ 2.08 Perak-Terengganu @ 2.10 UNDER: Selangor-Sabah @ 2.30 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UsManyDead Posted April 19, 2011 Author Share Posted April 19, 2011 Re: OVER / UNDER 2,5 GOALS With Statistics Some new matches popped up, because the Egyptian matches didn't have any odds yesterday on oddsway. Sorry for this add up, but more matches more chances :nana. The matches haven't started, and there is still like 3 hours till they start. OVER: Haras El Hodood-Smouha @ 2.25 ENPPI-Ismaily @ 2.10 Wadi Degla-Misr Lel Makasa @ 2.10 I think this is the last add-on for today. I hope to put them better tomorrow. Still there are some "ghost" leagues so the chances that, the odds are up, are small. :hope for today! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
marockee Posted April 19, 2011 Share Posted April 19, 2011 Re: OVER / UNDER 2,5 GOALS With Statistics http://www.soccerway.com is great, http://www.betexplorer.com also...besides Fra 2 take a look at Portugal 2 :cheers p.s. and focus on overs, unders suck :cry Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UsManyDead Posted April 19, 2011 Author Share Posted April 19, 2011 Re: OVER / UNDER 2,5 GOALS With Statistics http://www.soccerway.com is great' date= http://www.betexplorer.com also...besides Fra 2 take a look at Portugal 2 :cheers p.s. and focus on overs, unders suck :cry Thank you for your help. I'll try looking also in Portugal 2. Besides Malaysia, which ended with unbelievable with 1-1 all the games, the rest were satisfactory. The results for the whole day. The stats and all else will be done at the end of each week. OVER: Newcastle-Manchester Utd @ 1.98 LOSS Burnley-Middlesbrough @ 1.95 WIN Kidderminster-Darlington @ 1.93 WIN Staines Town-Maidenhead @ 1.95 WIN Dundee Utd-Rangers @ 1.93 WIN Falkirk-Partick @ 2.00 LOSS Queen of South-Ross County @ 2.00 ABANDONED Pahang-Negeri Sembilan @ 2.05 LOSS PBDKTT-Team-Johor FC @ 2.08 LOSS Perak-Terengganu @ 2.10 LOSS Haras El Hodood-Smouha @ 2.25 LOSS ENPPI-Ismaily @ 2.10 LOSS Wadi Degla-Misr Lel Makasa @ 2.10 LOSS UNDER: Bradford-Burton @ 1.98 WIN Guiseley-Gloucester @ 2.05 WIN Selangor-Sabah @ 2.30 WIN Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UsManyDead Posted April 19, 2011 Author Share Posted April 19, 2011 Re: OVER / UNDER 2,5 GOALS With Statistics Picks for tomorrow: OVER: Libertad-San Luis @ 1.98 Al Ittihad-El Shorta @ 2.10 Petrojet-Zamalek @ 2.05 Luzern-Thun @ 1.90 Jagiellonia-Gornik Z. @ 2.30 UNDER: Internacional-Emelec @ 2.10 Real Potosi-Real Mamore @ 2.50 San Jose-Nacional Potosi @ 2.10 The Strongest-Oriente Petrolero @ 2.05 Kilmarnock-Celtic @ 2.08 BSK Borca-Cukaricki @ 2.15 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fungasface Posted April 19, 2011 Share Posted April 19, 2011 Re: OVER / UNDER 2,5 GOALS With Statistics Good call with tonights games UsManyDead i done your 9 english picks and won a dime or 2 :beer ,cheers pal Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UsManyDead Posted April 19, 2011 Author Share Posted April 19, 2011 Re: OVER / UNDER 2,5 GOALS With Statistics Good call with tonights games UsManyDead i done your 9 english picks and won a dime or 2 :beer ' date='cheers pal[/quote'] I'm glad to hear that :loon. But as you have read this is still "work in progress" and "on paper system" so you should bet careful if you do, although I strongly recommend not to. As time passes I'll try to add new leagues to see how they perform and the results can be catastrophic. Cheers. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UsManyDead Posted April 20, 2011 Author Share Posted April 20, 2011 Re: OVER / UNDER 2,5 GOALS With Statistics Another match popped up today. There is still plenty of time till it starts. UNDER: Elbasani-Teuta @ 2.05 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UsManyDead Posted April 20, 2011 Author Share Posted April 20, 2011 Re: OVER / UNDER 2,5 GOALS With Statistics Picks for tomorrow: OVER: Libertad-San Luis @ 1.98 LOSS Al Ittihad-El Shorta @ 2.10 LOSS Petrojet-Zamalek @ 2.05 WIN Luzern-Thun @ 1.90 LOSS Jagiellonia-Gornik Z. @ 2.30 LOSS UNDER: Internacional-Emelec @ 2.10 WIN Real Potosi-Real Mamore @ 2.50 ABANDONED San Jose-Nacional Potosi @ 2.10 WIN The Strongest-Oriente Petrolero @ 2.05 Kilmarnock-Celtic @ 2.08 LOSS BSK Borca-Cukaricki @ 2.15 LOSS Elbasani-Teuta @ 2.05 LOSS The last one will be updated after it will be played. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UsManyDead Posted April 20, 2011 Author Share Posted April 20, 2011 Re: OVER / UNDER 2,5 GOALS With Statistics Today's Picks: OVER: Club Nacional-Club America @ 2.15 Aurora-Universitario @ 2.05 Santa Fe-Junior @ 2.00 Midtjylland-Horsens @ 1.95 Brondby-Esbjerg @ 1.93 Fyn-Viborg @ 1.93 Freiburg-Hannover @ 2.05 Dep. Malacateco-Xinabajul @ 1.95 Marquense-Universidad SC @ 2.05 Guarani-Independiente F.B.C. @ 2.05 Cracovia-Zaglebie @ 2.25 UNDER: Geylang-Tampines @ 2.05 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UsManyDead Posted April 20, 2011 Author Share Posted April 20, 2011 Re: OVER / UNDER 2,5 GOALS With Statistics This is the actual list, because 2 matches already have started/finished so I removed those two. I post it a little too late. OVER: Club Nacional-Club America @ 2.15 Aurora-Universitario @ 2.05 Santa Fe-Junior @ 2.00 Midtjylland-Horsens @ 1.95 Brondby-Esbjerg @ 1.93 Fyn-Viborg @ 1.93 Freiburg-Hannover @ 2.05 Marquense-Universidad SC @ 2.05 Cracovia-Zaglebie @ 2.25 UNDER: Geylang-Tampines @ 2.05 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UsManyDead Posted April 21, 2011 Author Share Posted April 21, 2011 Re: OVER / UNDER 2,5 GOALS With Statistics The last one will be updated after it will be played. UNDER: The Strongest-Oriente Petrolero @ 2.05 WIN Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UsManyDead Posted April 21, 2011 Author Share Posted April 21, 2011 Re: OVER / UNDER 2,5 GOALS With Statistics One match that starts earlier. This is the match that was written as ABANDONED few days ago. I think it was moved or something like this. The rest of the matches for Friday will posted later, but before the kick-off :D UNDER: Real Potosi-Real Mamore @ 2.50 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UsManyDead Posted April 21, 2011 Author Share Posted April 21, 2011 Re: OVER / UNDER 2,5 GOALS With Statistics This is the actual list, because 2 matches already have started/finished so I removed those two. I post it a little too late. OVER: Club Nacional-Club America @ 2.15 LOSS Aurora-Universitario @ 2.05 WIN Santa Fe-Junior @ 2.00 LOSS Midtjylland-Horsens @ 1.95 LOSS Brondby-Esbjerg @ 1.93 WIN Fyn-Viborg @ 1.93 WIN Freiburg-Hannover @ 2.05 WIN (the match is already 0-3 in 60' so it's OVER already :loon) Marquense-Universidad SC @ 2.05 LOSS Cracovia-Zaglebie @ 2.25 WIN UNDER: Geylang-Tampines @ 2.05 WIN Till now it is a good week for UNDERS :eek. The system still needs some time for some more fixes. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UsManyDead Posted April 22, 2011 Author Share Posted April 22, 2011 Re: OVER / UNDER 2,5 GOALS With Statistics The rest of the matches for today. :hope OVER: Doncaster-Crystal Palace @ 1.90 Nottingham-Leicester @ 1.90 Exeter-Oldham @ 1.93 Hartlepool-Tranmere @ 2.10 Milton Keynes-Huddersfield @ 1.90 Southend-Stevenage @ 2.05 Al-Raed-Al-Qadasiya @ 1.95 Clermont-Vannes @ 2.10 Le Havre-Evian Thonon Gaillard @ 2.30 Beauvais-Colmar @ 2.30 Bray-Galway @ 2.15 Drogheda-Dundalk @ 2.10 Athlone-Mervue Utd @ 2.00 Dolcan Zabki-Warta @ 2.25 Sportul Studenţesc-Pan Tg. Jiu @ 2.15 Celje-Triglav @ 2.20 UNDER: Bromley-Dartford @ 1.91 Dover-Basingstoke @ 2.20 Hampton-Braintree @ 2.00 Alfortville-Guingamp @ 2.08 Salthill Devon-Cork City @ 2.20 Monaghan-Wexford @ 2.00 Singapore A.F.-Etoile @ 1.90 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UsManyDead Posted April 23, 2011 Author Share Posted April 23, 2011 Re: OVER / UNDER 2,5 GOALS With Statistics Bad Friday. The rest of the matches for today. :hope OVER: Doncaster-Crystal Palace @ 1.90 LOSS Nottingham-Leicester @ 1.90 WIN Exeter-Oldham @ 1.93 LOSS Hartlepool-Tranmere @ 2.10 LOSS Milton Keynes-Huddersfield @ 1.90 WIN Southend-Stevenage @ 2.05 LOSS Al-Raed-Al-Qadasiya @ 1.95 WIN Clermont-Vannes @ 2.10 LOSS Le Havre-Evian Thonon Gaillard @ 2.30 LOSS Beauvais-Colmar @ 2.30 LOSS Bray-Galway @ 2.15 LOSS Drogheda-Dundalk @ 2.10 WIN Athlone-Mervue Utd @ 2.00 LOSS Dolcan Zabki-Warta @ 2.25 WIN Sportul Studenţesc-Pan Tg. Jiu @ 2.15 WIN Celje-Triglav @ 2.20 LOSS UNDER: Bromley-Dartford @ 1.91 LOSS Dover-Basingstoke @ 2.20 LOSS Hampton-Braintree @ 2.00 WIN Alfortville-Guingamp @ 2.08 LOSS Salthill Devon-Cork City @ 2.20 LOSS Monaghan-Wexford @ 2.00 LOSS Singapore A.F.-Etoile @ 1.90 WIN Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Posted October 16, 2011 Share Posted October 16, 2011 Re: OVER / UNDER 2,5 GOALS With Statistics is this system dead then? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UsManyDead Posted October 17, 2011 Author Share Posted October 17, 2011 Re: OVER / UNDER 2,5 GOALS With Statistics Hy. No, it's not dead yet :ok. I was planning on posting the picks once again, starting this monday, but now it's too late(some matches already played). So I'll start posting next week probably, cause I want to start fresh with all the selections I have. The system is still in testing although after one month it has a yield of 5.973% with 329 selections, which I would say it is pretty good. Cya next week ;) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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